UT cancels classes

#226
#226
Rickyvol77 said:
I work at a level 1 trauma center and am pretty educated on the subject. And I know 100% that this frenzy is overblown and it’s not as big a deal as the media and Facebook experts are making it out to be
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I believe the President and the organization heads who are suspending or canceling events nationwide know what they are doing. The measures being taken now have to be done. We all hope you are right but why take the chance ?
 
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#227
#227
ABINGDON VOL FAN said:
I believe the President and the organization heads who are suspending or canceling events nationwide know what they are doing. The measures being taken now have to be done. We all hope you are right but why take the chance ?
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938 confirmed cases and 29 deaths in US. Most were the elderly in Washington. Everything is under control. The DHS/CISA just released update
 
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#228
#228
Rickyvol77 said:
Not mocking the disease. Mocking the fact that people are sheep who are losing their minds over something that won’t affect 98% of you
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I usually don't let myself get provoked in to posting on here but seeing some of the **** responses in this thread is disappointing. I see some such as yourself posting either about working in a field that makes them "knowledgable" on the virus or making light of the situation. Let me say I agree that a large percentage of the population will not suffer or be impacted to a great degree. The problem lies in those such as myself who have compromised immune systems, or another underlying condition (which many aren't aware they have), that this will have a greater impact on.

I've been immunosuppressed for 24 of my 32 years now with 11 surgeries and counting. I have one kidney (transplanted) functioning right now at 29%. I spent 11 days in April of 2010 at UT Med. Center from a virus that was thought to be the flu (and tested positive as type a flu) that turned out to be Cytomegalovirus (CMV) and had I gone another week without treatment would have died. So don't mistake me for a sheep or that this is overreaction. You are obviously clueless, and the people like yourself who I see post on other avenues of social media that are focused solely on how they would not be affected is the reason why massive preventive measures are being established attempting to reduce community spread.

But please, by all means, continue mocking the sheep.
 
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#229
#229
Rickyvol77 said:
938 confirmed cases and 29 deaths in US. Most were the elderly in Washington. Everything is under control. The DHS/CISA just released update
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we are close to the brink to losing total control( maybe). Trumps former deputy of Homeland Security predicted last night that the nations hospital system will be overwhelmed in about two weeks. Maybe an exaggeration , maybe not.
 
#231
#231
Folks minimizing the amount of people who have died in the US from CoVid should consider that it takes six weeks to know if someone has recovered from this disease. So rather than saying X amount of people have died in the US from CoVid compared to Y amount who have been infected, you should be saying X amount of people have died out of the Z amount of people who were infected or had been infected in the US six weeks ago
 
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#233
#233
Folks minimizing the amount of people who have died in the US from CoVid should consider that it takes six weeks to know for sure if someone has completely recovered from this disease and is no longer at risk of symptoms re-emerging. So rather than saying X amount of people have died in the US from CoVid compared to Y amount who have been infected, you should be saying X amount of people have died out of the Z amount of people who were infected or had been infected in the US six weeks ago
 
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#234
#234
Rickyvol77 said:
938 confirmed cases and 29 deaths in US. Most were the elderly in Washington. Everything is under control. The DHS/CISA just released update
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Damn that is even worse than what I saw. So about a 30% mortality rate?

We definitely need to take precautions.
 
#235
#235
norrislakevol said:
I agree. Average age of people who die from the corona virus is around 80 years of age. Remind me again how old the vast majority of college age students are?
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There is 0.2% mortality rate in ages 60 and below (same rate among 16-25 years old) and 2% mortality rate overall . If there are 20,000 people on campus and they get infected it means 40 young folks are at risk of dying. You still think that is stupid ??
Also, these students do not remain in isolation after school so they will be spreading it to larger population including older folks. Have some sense man.

WHO just came out and said 70% of the worlds population will be infected when all said and done, with 1% mortality rate killing around 54 million people. Still think its a joke ?

I do not support panicking and stocking of TP but any and all caution must be taken to stop this.
 
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#237
#237
ABINGDON VOL FAN said:
I believe the President and the organization heads who are suspending or canceling events nationwide know what they are doing. The measures being taken now have to be done. We all hope you are right but why take the chance ?
Click to expand...

I believe they are reacting at a point, they knew the potential and that this virus could get to the point that it is today, but did little. Piss Poor Planning and Partisan Politics. Now we are behind the power curve because the Leadership of our Country did not start planning process in October 2019 and choose to react vs being proactive. Last Night's address had Good intentions, but several words that may have been misread or misinterpreted caused more negative reaction than intended.

I agree they know what they are doing but the worst decision is the one not made and they knew the potential in Dec 19 and waited until March to start preparing for it. This is irresponsible.
 
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#239
#239
VFL49er said:
Ktown messed up his math there but surely as a healthcare administrator you still know a 3% mortality rate for something so infectious is still worrying
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Not when it is way less than .01% morality for those under the age of 80%. More likely to fall down the stairs and break your neck
 
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#242
#242
Rickyvol77 said:
Not when it is way less than .01% morality for those under the age of 80%. More likely to fall down the stairs and break your neck
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Ok but when young people get it and still feel good enough to go out, they spread it to older folks who are going out. Or they give it to another young person who lives with grandma and grandpa. I think I’d rather the country exercise some caution rather than risk thousands of older people dying early when we could stop it
 
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#243
#243
VFL49er said:
Ktown messed up his math there but surely as a healthcare administrator you still know a 3% mortality rate for something so infectious is still worrying
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ARRRGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!!

Is anyone even paying attention? 25 of the 30 were in an elderly care facility. So of 950 "normalish folk" who became infected, at most 5 died (I say at most because I don't know if all five were normal or if some were immuno-compromised.) That's way less than 3%. It's approaching 0.5%.

On the Diamond Princess cruise ship, 100% of "normal, healthy, non-septuagenarians" lived.
Not one death. This 3% number is complete fallacy.

I beg yet again: refute my numbers. Anyone? Class? Bueller?
 
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#244
#244
Aerie Vol said:
ARRRGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!!

Is anyone even paying attention? 25 of the 30 were in an elderly care facility. So of 950 "normalish folk" who became infected, at most 5 died (I say at most because I don't know if all five were normal or if some were immuno-compromised.) That's way less than 3%. It's approaching 0.5%.

On the Diamond Princess cruise ship, 100% of "normal, healthy, non-septuagenarians" lived.
Not one death. This 3% number is complete fallacy.

I beg yet again: refute my numbers. Anyone? Class? Bueller?
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UT cancels classes

Here are some better numbers
 
#245
#245
Aerie Vol said:
ARRRGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!!

Is anyone even paying attention? 25 of the 30 were in an elderly care facility. So of 950 "normalish folk" who became infected, at most 5 died (I say at most because I don't know if all five were normal or if some were immuno-compromised.) That's way less than 3%. It's approaching 0.5%.

On the Diamond Princess cruise ship, 100% of "normal, healthy, non-septuagenarians" lived.
Not one death. This 3% number is complete fallacy.

I beg yet again: refute my numbers. Anyone? Class? Bueller?
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You may be unaware of this but there is more than one elderly care facility in this country, and it’s very likely that without major efforts like those being taken right now that a similar situation as the one you described would take place at a whole bunch of them. Again, nobody is denying that it is mostly old people who have to worry about dying from the disease
 
#247
#247
TN_Transplant said:
View attachment 265880

If we use Hubei province as our study (since it is the largest dataset that is mature enough to extrapolate from), we see that out of a population of 58.5 million, 67,781 have been confirmed infected, putting the infection rate at about 0.12%. If we expand that out to 300 million to compare to the US (I know, it's a ballpark figure, not exact), you get an estimate of 347,595 confirmed cases for the U.S.

Now, of those 67,781 confirmed cases, 14,407 are still active, so we have to throw those out of the the equation, since the outcome isn't known. That leaves us with 53,374 test cases. Of those 53,374, 3056 died. That gives us a 5.73% mortality rate. That's a scary number, much worse than the estimated 3.4%. If we expound that out to the 347,595 in the US estimation, we are looking at an estimate of 19,902 deaths in the U.S. Keep in mind that the 5.73% mortality rate for Hubei is an estimate for known cases, and could be plus or minus 1.22% as an error rate. So taking the error rate into account, we are looking at most at something like 24,132 U.S. deaths ballpark.

Not trying to minimize or sensationalize either way. Just trying to give a good set of realistic numbers on the current datasets that are significant enough to look at given the knowns.
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Might add the unknown that the comparison is between "ground zero" (the birth place) and a country with a better understanding of the virus now than 2 or 3 months ago.
 
#248
#248
Sudden Impact said:
I believe they are reacting at a point, they knew the potential and that this virus could get to the point that it is today, but did little. Piss Poor Planning and Partisan Politics. Now we are behind the power curve because the Leadership of our Country did not start planning process in October 2019 and choose to react vs being proactive. Last Night's address had Good intentions, but several words that may have been misread or misinterpreted caused more negative reaction than intended.

I agree they know what they are doing but the worst decision is the one not made and they knew the potential in Dec 19 and waited until March to start preparing for it. This is irresponsible.
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Sounds like you are a partisan left winger. The administration was actually ahead of the curve when he restricted travel from China but guess what ?, he was crucified then for overacting by the left wing media.
 
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#250
#250
volmandu said:
There is 0.2% mortality rate in ages 60 and below (same rate among 16-25 years old) and 2% mortality rate overall . If there are 20,000 people on campus and they get infected it means 40 young folks are at risk of dying. You still think that is stupid ??
Also, these students do not remain in isolation after school so they will be spreading it to larger population including older folks. Have some sense man.

WHO just came out and said 70% of the worlds population will be infected when all said and done, with 1% mortality rate killing around 54 million people. Still think its a joke ?

I do not support panicking and stocking of TP but any and all caution must be taken to stop this.
Click to expand...
This!
 
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