Ukraine Protests

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#851
#851
davethevol said:
China is what scares me. They are watching this very closely and I wouldn't be surprised if they make some major moves soon. This is almost becoming a perfect storm scenario for those that detest the US and they may never have an opportunity like this again to further their grabs for power.
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Putin has been exercising physical grabs for territory to expand Russia's sphere of influence. China doesn't have to, they've already been busy exploiting the developing world for resources for years. No need to move boots outside of their own borders.
 
#852
#852
March 3, 6:28 p.m. -- A Ukrainian naval officer, Alexei Kyrylov, confirmed to Channel 5 today that the Russian Black Sea Fleet command has issued an ultimatum to Ukrainian naval forces to surrender by 5 p.m. today. Kyrylov told the news channel that he expected an attack by 7 p.m. tonight. Kyrylov is stationed with two Ukrainian ships Ternopil and Slavutych in Sevastopol Bay. Security sources confirmed to the Kyiv Post that the Russian threat took place. -- Anastasia Forina
 
#853
#853
lawgator1 said:
The assumption you are making is that if Obama (or some other POTUS) were "stronger" in the past it would cause Putin to worry that he could not get away with this.

That is flatly untrue. No president, no matter how tough in the past, could make a credible warning or even threat that would avoid what has occurred in Crimea.
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I agree that no credible warning or threat would have stopped it, which is why Obama is being lambasted for making a threat. It makes him look like a fool.

He also should go ahead with the missile defense system sells as those countries clearly need them for defense purposes.
 
#854
#854
milohimself said:
Putin has been exercising physical grabs for territory to expand Russia's sphere of influence. China doesn't have to, they've already been busy exploiting the developing world for resources for years. No need to move boots outside of their own borders.
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They still want Taiwan, no? Now's the time for them to make that advance.
 
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#856
#856
lawgator1 said:
The assumption you are making is that if Obama (or some other POTUS) were "stronger" in the past it would cause Putin to worry that he could not get away with this.

That is flatly untrue. No president, no matter how tough in the past, could make a credible warning or even threat that would avoid what has occurred in Crimea.
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Make the case for 1: your observation being, at best, no more than another assumption and 2: why your assumption is any more credible.
 
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#857
#857
davethevol said:
I agree that no credible warning or threat would have stopped it, which is why Obama is being lambasted for making a threat. It makes him look like a fool.

He also should go ahead with the missile defense system sells as those countries clearly need them for defense purposes.
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Threat or no, guaranteed that NATO is either already on the scene or is about to be. Whether or not this whole thing goes down without shots being fired remains to be seen. There's certainly enough political will in the region to welcome the Russians.

We'll see how Turchynov plays this, the ball is in his court.
 
#858
#858
davethevol said:
They still want Taiwan, no? Now's the time for them to make that advance.
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Not like they used to. The main value at this point is tech industry, China has been picking up the slack through placement of people in US tech/universities, and insanely high rates of copyright infringement. That's very much their chosen road.

Putin is still living in the 20th century. Resources and land.
 
#860
#860
lawgator1 said:
The assumption you are making is that if Obama (or some other POTUS) were "stronger" in the past it would cause Putin to worry that he could not get away with this.

That is flatly untrue. No president, no matter how tough in the past, could make a credible warning or even threat that would avoid what has occurred in Crimea.
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BS. We've given in to the Russians at every turn over the past five years. They *****ed about our missile defense, so we removed it from eastern Europe. They hampered our efforts in Iran, so we backed off. They put themselves in the position of leadership in Syria and we backed down.

And again, had we put forth a stronger line, had more competent leadership, not been indecisive and not groveled at their feet for the past five years I feel this would have a different outcome today.
 
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#862
#862
Grand Vol said:
BS. We've given in to the Russians at every turn over the past five years. They *****ed about our missile defense, so we removed it from eastern Europe. They hampered our efforts in Iran, so we backed off. They put themselves in the position of leadership in Syria and we backed down.

And again, had we put forth a stronger line, had more competent leadership, not been indecisive and not groveled at their feet for the past five years I feel this would have a different outcome today.
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You're wasting your breath GV. Like talking to a brick wall. The apologists will never blame the anointed one for anything. To do so is racist.
 
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#863
#863
Ukraine needs some Minutemen to protect its borders. Maybe Brewer can call up a unit from Arizona.
 
#865
#865
Grand Vol said:
BS. We've given in to the Russians at every turn over the past five years. They *****ed about our missile defense, so we removed it from eastern Europe. They hampered our efforts in Iran, so we backed off. They put themselves in the position of leadership in Syria and we backed down.

And again, had we put forth a stronger line, had more competent leadership, not been indecisive and not groveled at their feet for the past five years I feel this would have a different outcome today.
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I disagree. Where's the evidence showing that sort of doctrine works, especially in this context? Putin is very much playing the part of the ex-KGB thug that he is. This instance is a result of Russian nationalism in the region, coupled with the ouster of Yanukovich, which is a relatively random event. Putin has and will continue to try and expand Russian influence over its neighbors, regardless of nearly any level of military retaliation.

Any issues he will have are not going to come from military threat. They are going to come from the fact that Russia is still operating in a 20th century paradigm, which is susceptible to tight sanctions. Slamming the brakes on Russian trade would do far more damage than any number of missiles. That threat hasn't gone away.
 
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#866
#866
lawgator1 said:
The assumption you are making is that if Obama (or some other POTUS) were "stronger" in the past it would cause Putin to worry that he could not get away with this.

That is flatly untrue. No president, no matter how tough in the past, could make a credible warning or even threat that would avoid what has occurred in Crimea.
Click to expand...

What others and I are saying is that because of the past 5 years Putin is approaching the situation in a manner that is more aggressive and materially different than had our stance been different.

No one is saying this would have been prevented entirely but we are saying that Putin's calculus is based in how he perceives this administration. That calculus impacts his tactics and strategies.

How he pursues his goals is tied to how he perceives our reactions.
 
#869
#869
milohimself said:
I disagree. Where's the evidence showing that sort of doctrine works, especially in this context? Putin is very much playing the part of the ex-KGB thug that he is. This instance is a result of Russian nationalism in the region, coupled with the ouster of Yanukovich, which is a relatively random event. Putin has and will continue to try and expand Russian influence over its neighbors, regardless of nearly any level of military retaliation.

Any issues he will have are not going to come from military threat. They are going to come from the fact that Russia is still operating in a 20th century paradigm, which is susceptible to tight sanctions. Slamming the brakes on Russian trade would do far more damage than any number of missiles. That threat hasn't gone away.
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I don't think Yanukovich's ouster is a random event at all.
 
#870
#870
milohimself said:
I disagree. Where's the evidence showing that sort of doctrine works, especially in this context? Putin is very much playing the part of the ex-KGB thug that he is. This instance is a result of Russian nationalism in the region, coupled with the ouster of Yanukovich, which is a relatively random event. Putin has and will continue to try and expand Russian influence over its neighbors, regardless of nearly any level of military retaliation.

Any issues he will have are not going to come from military threat. They are going to come from the fact that Russia is still operating in a 20th century paradigm, which is susceptible to tight sanctions. Slamming the brakes on Russian trade would do far more damage than any number of missiles. That threat hasn't gone away.
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You can still take a hard line without a military response. Can't find an example of this working in recent American FP because we have been relatively toothless for a little while.
 
#871
#871
davethevol said:
They still want Taiwan, no? Now's the time for them to make that advance.
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No, Taiwan probably isn't on their list right now as it would lack world support. Economically, it wouldn't help them and would destroy the economic bases they have created since an invasion would be overly hostile and damning in the world opinion.

But the Spratly and Senkaku Islands might be on the agenda. If Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan feel there would be no significant US backing in the defense of these islands, the Chinese could exert a lot of pressure to force them to back down. It probably wouldn't come to military action, but knowing you don't have a big dog at your back tends to make you rethink your position on a lot of things. And even if the US said they would back them up, do you honestly think that sort of verbiage would be taken seriously by any party since we have failed to provide world leadership in the past five years?

Not even getting into the tangent we would be slitting our own throat economically if we were to get into a large dispute with the PRC.
 
#872
#872
volinbham said:
What others and I are saying is that because of the past 5 years Putin is approaching the situation in a manner that is more aggressive and materially different than had our stance been different.

No one is saying this would have been prevented entirely but we are saying that Putin's calculus is based in how he perceives this administration. That calculus impacts his tactics and strategies.

How he pursues his goals is tied to how he perceives our reactions.
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Military conflict doesn't happen on the part of NATO countries without coalition, and it hasn't for decades. Yes, the US is at the forefront of that, but it takes many parties to make things happen.

I don't think there's any course of defensive action that could have been taken to prevent Putin from trying to flex on most former Soviet states.
 
#873
#873
Abe Hoffman said:
Bush's lack of response to Russia's invasion of Georgia gave Putin a green light to do whatever he wanted.
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It certainly could factor in - we've been soft on Russia/Putin for quite some time and each of his actions has gone relatively unpunished. Why wouldn't he think he could do as he pleases?

On a side note, I don't think anyone considers W to be an FP president to look up to.
 
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#875
#875
volinbham said:
I don't think Yanukovich's ouster is a random event at all.
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Poorly phrased, I meant that it happened in relative (not total) isolation. There are many factors, but the main one is that it was the result of populist protests by ethnic Ukrainians. The cause of it was mostly from within Ukraine itself.
 
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