Ukraine Protests

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#876
#876
milohimself said:
Military conflict doesn't happen on the part of NATO countries without coalition, and it hasn't for decades. Yes, the US is at the forefront of that, but it takes many parties to make things happen.

I don't think there's any course of defensive action that could have been taken to prevent Putin from trying to flex on most former Soviet states.
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Who is calling for military conflict? We've disengaged and given ground repeatedly to Putin both during W and currently. We knew he was living in the past yet approached him like he was an open-minded, global citizen leader. The "reset" doubled down on the "I'm okay, you're okay" approach that Putin would never yield to and I'm sure he viewed with amusement.
 
#877
#877
milohimself said:
Poorly phrased, I meant that it happened in relative (not total) isolation. There are many factors, but the main one is that it was the result of populist protests by ethnic Ukrainians. The cause of it was mostly from within Ukraine itself.
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Again I'd say that the protests were catalyzed by Putin pulling his strings.
 
#878
#878
Abe Hoffman said:
No stretch at all.

History will record GW Bush as one of the worst Presidents ever. Obama will not be far behind.
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LOLOLOL George Bush. Again?

This is when you know you've got a Democrat pinned in. You start hearing blah blah blah, George Bush, blah blah blah Cheney and Bush, blah blah blah

This thread has made my morning.
 
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#880
#880
BREAKING NEWS Mark Mardell North America editor tweets: US State Dept says they are preparing to put sanctions on Russia and are "moving down that path"
 
#882
#882
I picked this up somewhere else:


About a month ago there was the leaked phone call from the US Assistant Secretary of State. It strongly indicated the US was either instigating or at least trying to control the recent leadership changes in the Ukraine that have now led to Russia reacting like this. If I remember right, the phone conversation was even purposely done between insecure cell phones. That might indicate the conversation was supposed to be intercepted.

So either the US purposely set things up to provoke Russia into doing this or the US seriously underestimated how Russia would react. While it could be total incompetence and underestimation, the more interesting questions occur If this was all intentional. If intentional, the questions I see are: Were the US and Russia were working together to do this? Or, if not, what is the US plan?
 
#883
#883
davethevol said:
I agree that no credible warning or threat would have stopped it, which is why Obama is being lambasted for making a threat. It makes him look like a fool.

He also should go ahead with the missile defense system sells as those countries clearly need them for defense purposes.
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I suppose long term one could restart that program as an overarching kind if a thing to tell Putin hands off anything else. But you once again run into the usual arguments about cost and whether such a program could ever actually be effective.

At any rate, I don't see much value to saber rattling about that now, in terms of Crimea. Hard to see how that would have any effect on the current situation.
 
#884
#884
DC_Vol said:
LOLOLOL George Bush. Again?

This is when you know you've got a Democrat pinned in. You start hearing blah blah blah, George Bush, blah blah blah Cheney and Bush, blah blah blah

This thread has made my morning.
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Seriously. The guy has been splitting firewood and clearing brush on his farm for the past 6 years, but once again its "Bush's Fault"
 
#885
#885
milohimself said:
I disagree. Where's the evidence showing that sort of doctrine works, especially in this context? Putin is very much playing the part of the ex-KGB thug that he is. This instance is a result of Russian nationalism in the region, coupled with the ouster of Yanukovich, which is a relatively random event. Putin has and will continue to try and expand Russian influence over its neighbors, regardless of nearly any level of military retaliation.

Any issues he will have are not going to come from military threat. They are going to come from the fact that Russia is still operating in a 20th century paradigm, which is susceptible to tight sanctions. Slamming the brakes on Russian trade would do far more damage than any number of missiles. That threat hasn't gone away.
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You are correct that Putin is a KGB/FSB thug. (might still be but that's for another time and place). But the key principle here is the fact they have either pushed US influence back in the world sphere or filled in where we were lacking. He's playing a very good game of political brinkmanship in knowing there is only one possible way of removing his military from the Crimea and that's a full on invasion by NATO and the US. Which I think we both agree will not happen. So he has effectively backed us into a corner with our own inaction in the world stage and is shedding a lot of light on our inability to effectively counter Russian moves in the geopolitical realms.

And sanctions would be of limited use as there are always markets for his oil and gas. China for example is in great need of both of those items and would gladly fill in where the EU backs out. So all the PRC has to do, which has no dog in this fight, is abstain or vote against any UN sanctions. And with the European nations needing Russian oil and gas, who wins and who loses in that scenario?

But the question you posed. Being KGB, they knew how to go after a target's weaknesses rather than their strength. If the Russians/Putin knows they can effectively end US influence in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet states by showing our weakness in foreign affairs, is that a victory for them without ever firing a shot? Was our unilateral decision to remove the missile defense shield from Eastern Europe seen as an act of friendship or weakness in their eyes?
 
#886
#886
Nick Robinson Political editor tweets: BREAKING Government will not curb trade with Russia or close London's financial centre to Russians an official document reveals
 
#887
#887
volinbham said:
Again I'd say that the protests were catalyzed by Putin pulling his strings.
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Putin did pull his strings. Yanukovich would not have made that office if Ukraine wasn't heavily ethnic or pro-Russian to begin with. That's still a specter of Soviet-era Russification.

I understand that the US and UK are bound by treaty to protect Ukraine's sovereignty, but I still don't see how any amount of defensive posturing short of turning Russia's borders into a DMZ (hyperbole) would have deterred Putin from taking his current course of action. Yes, US FP has capitulated on threat of force for many years, preceding the current admin. I'd still like to see a concrete demonstration of how doing something else would change Putin's course of action in recent years, rather than armchair quarterbacking.

Russia is, however, in an economic situation that leaves it heavily susceptible to sanction, which is what is about to happen.
 
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#889
#889
Grand Vol said:
You are correct that Putin is a KGB/FSB thug. (might still be but that's for another time and place). But the key principle here is the fact they have either pushed US influence back in the world sphere or filled in where we were lacking. He's playing a very good game of political brinkmanship in knowing there is only one possible way of removing his military from the Crimea and that's a full on invasion by NATO and the US. Which I think we both agree will not happen. So he has effectively backed us into a corner with our own inaction in the world stage and is shedding a lot of light on our inability to effectively counter Russian moves in the geopolitical realms.

And sanctions would be of limited use as there are always markets for his oil and gas. China for example is in great need of both of those items and would gladly fill in where the EU backs out. So all the PRC has to do, which has no dog in this fight, is abstain or vote against any UN sanctions. And with the European nations needing Russian oil and gas, who wins and who loses in that scenario?

But the question you posed. Being KGB, they knew how to go after a target's weaknesses rather than their strength. If the Russians/Putin knows they can effectively end US influence in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet states by showing our weakness in foreign affairs, is that a victory for them without ever firing a shot? Was our unilateral decision to remove the missile defense shield from Eastern Europe seen as an act of friendship or weakness in their eyes?
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Shutting Gazprom out of Western Europe is probably about the most damaging thing one can think of to do to Russia. They already sell to China, but China won't pay but a fraction of the rates that continental Europe does, and getting product to the Pacific is far more costly.

Those missile installations weren't going to be used, by anyone. You and I know that. Putin knew that. The west has been able to and is still able to put Russia's gonads in a salad shooter in the way that counts most, and it has nothing to do with firepower. That hasn't changed.
 
#890
#890
John Schindler @20committee
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Reports coming in that Russian assault on UKR Navy HQ in Sebastopol has begun in last hour
 
#891
#891
milohimself said:
I understand that the US and UK are bound by treaty to protect Ukraine's sovereignty
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So is Russia. But I don't think Putin wants control of the entire country...yet. But he would want an end to either EU or US influence in the region which effectively brings the Ukraine back into the Russian sphere of influence.

milohimself said:
Russia is, however, in an economic situation that leaves it heavily susceptible to sanction, which is what is about to happen.
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Unfortunately, Russia has the resources and raw materials the rest of the world needs and there can and will be markets for those. Sanctions didn't stop Iran from becoming a regional superpower and they've been in place for over 30 years.

We have nothing to lose by economic sanctions against Russia, but I seriously doubt they will bring them to their knees.
 
#892
#892
milohimself said:
Shutting Gazprom out of Western Europe is probably about the most damaging thing one can think of to do to Russia. They already sell to China, but China won't pay but a fraction of the rates that continental Europe does, and getting product to the Pacific is far more costly.

Those missile installations weren't going to be used, by anyone. You and I know that. Putin knew that. The west has been able to and is still able to put Russia's gonads in a salad shooter in the way that counts most, and it has nothing to do with firepower. That hasn't changed.
Click to expand...

That would do more to cripple Western Europe (the west in general as fuel prices would skyrocket) than Russia.
 
#894
#894
milohimself said:
Shutting Gazprom out of Western Europe is probably about the most damaging thing one can think of to do to Russia. They already sell to China, but China won't pay but a fraction of the rates that continental Europe does, and getting product to the Pacific is far more costly.

Those missile installations weren't going to be used, by anyone. You and I know that. Putin knew that. The west has been able to and is still able to put Russia's gonads in a salad shooter in the way that counts most, and it has nothing to do with firepower. That hasn't changed.
Click to expand...

Putin already threatens to shut down Gazprom when he gets the inclination to. And Europe would suffer a whole lot more with a reduced gas flow than Russia will.

And yes, those missile defense installations were not going to be used. Just like the nuclear weapons stockpiles in Turkey, Germany, Italy and other European nations will never be used (hopefully). But the fact that we removed them because the Russians objected and we wanted a great "reset" was a political victory for the Russians. They griped, we removed them, they won. No concessions were made on their part so this gave them motive to push on other fronts.
 
#895
#895
VolsNSkinsFan said:
Seriously. The guy has been splitting firewood and clearing brush on his farm for the past 6 years, but once again its "Bush's Fault"
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The counterpoint I make is that a number of posters here are claiming Putin has become emboldened only within the last five years (thanks Obama!).

Here Bush himself admits that Putin's character changed during Bush's presidency. The Russian became much more "cold blooded."

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cx49KA_IW-Y[/youtube]
 
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#896
#896
Grand Vol said:
Was our unilateral decision to remove the missile defense shield from Eastern Europe seen as an act of friendship or weakness in their eyes?
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You and others keep harping about the cancellation of the original European "missile defense shield". This so called shield consisted of ten inceptor missiles. Big deal. This could easily be overwhelmed.

The new system which is currently under construction in Poland, Romania and Turkey will be superior to the original.
 
#900
#900
Velo Vol said:
The counterpoint I make is that a number of posters here are claiming Putin has become emboldened only within the last five years (thanks Obama!).
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Keep on believing that if it makes you feel better about your precious Obama.

If you're so inclined to open up your eyes, look around at our FP. It's a disaster.
 
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