The Statistical Decline of JG

#27
#27
I am asking a question, not arguing. Has or does Chaney actually coach/train QB's? Or does he take a QB that is being taught the finer points of the position by another coach and use him in his offense? (in our case Winkie supposed to teach in think)

Valid Question. I have not seen anything from Weinke that makes me think he is any kind of QB whisperer. So it is possible that the next level down is not doing their job.
 
#28
#28
Some other great stats during JGs tenure at UT:

2017: 119th total offense. 19.8 ppg. 4 wins.
2018: 110th total offense. 22.8 ppg. 5 wins.
2019: 97th total offense. 24.2 ppg. 8 wins.
2020: 108th total offense. 20.7 ppg. 2 wins so far.

I honestly don't care what JGs individual stats are. The offense has been awful since he took over.

The year before JG started playing:

2016: 24th total offense. 36.4 ppg. 9 wins.
 
#30
#30
Some other great stats during JGs tenure at UT:

2017: 119th total offense. 19.8 ppg. 4 wins.
2018: 110th total offense. 22.8 ppg. 5 wins.
2019: 97th total offense. 24.2 ppg. 8 wins.
2020: 108th total offense. 20.7 ppg. 2 wins so far.

I honestly don't care what JGs individual stats are. The offense has been awful since he took over.

The year before JG started playing:

2016: 24th total offense. 36.4 ppg. 9 wins.
You would think pruitt would look at this and think we need a change. Even if Bailey is worse, if it’s close you take your lumps this year and get him some experience. It makes no sense to me.

If none of the QBs are ready but JG we need some serious staff changes.
 
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#31
#31
I was a JG supporter back in 2018. Mixed on him in 2019. And want him benched in 2020.

Some say he's always been this player, but actually, he's statically gotten worse every year since 2018. This is baffling since the players around him have gotten better.

One of my favorite stats is "Interception Adjusted Yards Per Attempt". This is a metric I've created; essentially, we modify yards per attempt by a -50 for every INT (which is close to what an INT is, a -50 yard play, on average). How does JG do on this metric?

In 2018, he did relatively well. He was 4th in the SEC at 7.18 mod ypa, behind only Tua, Jordan Ta'amu, and Jake Fromm. With some further improvement, JG seemed like he could become a good SEC QB.

Then what happened in 2019? He turned the ball over a lot more, but he still produced some big pass plays. His INT-adj ypa fell to 6.84, but he was still 5th best in the SEC on this metric, behind Tua, Burrow, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask.

In 2020, he has fallen all the way down to 11th in the SEC at 5.63 INT-mod ypa. He's only ahead of KJ Costello (who basically throws every play), Collin Hill, and Ken Seals.

Year: Int-Mod YPA (Rank)
2018: 7.18 (4)
2019: 6.84 (5)
2020: 5.63 (11)

Keep in mind, this doesn't even factor in fumbles, which would make the 2020 stats look even worse. Or the quality of the team surrounding him, which is much better now than in 2018.

Virtually every other veteran SEC QB has improved from last year.

Player: 2019 -> 2020
Mac Jones: 9.59 -> 11.84
Matt Corral: 6.81 -> 8.72
Kellen Mond: 5.84 -> 7.52
Kyle Trask: 7.32 -> 9.58
Bo Nix: 5.95 -> 6.15
JG: 6.84 -> 5.63

While I'm not 100% blaming JG here, as the coaches have screwed up IMO by not playing the best WRs, this is nevertheless an unusual trend. Almost all QBs in the SEC improve over time on this metric. JG has gotten worse every single year since 2018 in spite of having a better supporting cast every single year. Remember in 2018, we had a sieve of an O-line that barely left JG any time to throw, and that was the year with our weakest receiver group and the weakest run game as well. That was JG's best year statistically.

Does JG just not fit in Chaney's offense? Are our coaches doing a bad job coaching the QBs and the passing game? Or is this a JG-specific issue? I don't know the answer. We all know JG has played terrible this year, but it's even more shocking statistically when you examine how far he's declined in 2 years. The JG from 2018 is worlds better than the JG from 2020.

At this point, I'm ready to see Harrison Bailey, but I'm still afraid that it may be more of a coaching issue; something is clearly off. Veteran SEC QBs are not supposed to regress this much.

I'm not sure JG was very good in the first place. He cannot handle pressure very well as shown in his third down and interception rates.
 
#32
#32
Lol, I can still remember a couple decades ago, okay okay Years ago when he wasn't declared the starter and JG had a Fit over on the sideline. Half the team tripped over his lip from all of the pouting...... I knew then we were in trouble
He can still shoot a mean fake arrow - when one of his receivers out jumps a defender in the endzone for a touchdown.
 
#33
#33
It is amazing that stats don't matter unless it shows a negative light on things. W-L record is the only stat that matters, unless it is fodder for more QB bashing.
 
#34
#34
I think it's a combination of JG just isn't good and Weinke. Jared Goff was horrible for the Rams while Weinke was his coach and now he's one of the better NFL QB's IMO.
 
#35
#35
I was a JG supporter back in 2018. Mixed on him in 2019. And want him benched in 2020.

Some say he's always been this player, but actually, he's statically gotten worse every year since 2018. This is baffling since the players around him have gotten better.

One of my favorite stats is "Interception Adjusted Yards Per Attempt". This is a metric I've created; essentially, we modify yards per attempt by a -50 for every INT (which is close to what an INT is, a -50 yard play, on average). How does JG do on this metric?

In 2018, he did relatively well. He was 4th in the SEC at 7.18 mod ypa, behind only Tua, Jordan Ta'amu, and Jake Fromm. With some further improvement, JG seemed like he could become a good SEC QB.

Then what happened in 2019? He turned the ball over a lot more, but he still produced some big pass plays. His INT-adj ypa fell to 6.84, but he was still 5th best in the SEC on this metric, behind Tua, Burrow, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask.

In 2020, he has fallen all the way down to 11th in the SEC at 5.63 INT-mod ypa. He's only ahead of KJ Costello (who basically throws every play), Collin Hill, and Ken Seals.

Year: Int-Mod YPA (Rank)
2018: 7.18 (4)
2019: 6.84 (5)
2020: 5.63 (11)

Keep in mind, this doesn't even factor in fumbles, which would make the 2020 stats look even worse. Or the quality of the team surrounding him, which is much better now than in 2018.

Virtually every other veteran SEC QB has improved from last year.

Player: 2019 -> 2020
Mac Jones: 9.59 -> 11.84
Matt Corral: 6.81 -> 8.72
Kellen Mond: 5.84 -> 7.52
Kyle Trask: 7.32 -> 9.58
Bo Nix: 5.95 -> 6.15
JG: 6.84 -> 5.63

While I'm not 100% blaming JG here, as the coaches have screwed up IMO by not playing the best WRs, this is nevertheless an unusual trend. Almost all QBs in the SEC improve over time on this metric. JG has gotten worse every single year since 2018 in spite of having a better supporting cast every single year. Remember in 2018, we had a sieve of an O-line that barely left JG any time to throw, and that was the year with our weakest receiver group and the weakest run game as well. That was JG's best year statistically.

Does JG just not fit in Chaney's offense? Are our coaches doing a bad job coaching the QBs and the passing game? Or is this a JG-specific issue? I don't know the answer. We all know JG has played terrible this year, but it's even more shocking statistically when you examine how far he's declined in 2 years. The JG from 2018 is worlds better than the JG from 2020.

At this point, I'm ready to see Harrison Bailey, but I'm still afraid that it may be more of a coaching issue; something is clearly off. Veteran SEC QBs are not supposed to regress this much.
I offer up a very specific theory. I believe defenses know what he can (short list) and can't do (long list). They have enough tape on him and enough direct experience against him to run a defense that just shuts him down or forces him into more mistakes.
 
#36
#36
I offer up a very specific theory. I believe defenses know what he can (short list) and can't do (long list). They have enough tape on him and enough direct experience against him to run a defense that just shuts him down or forces him into more mistakes.
This answers the OP's question. The reason he has gotten worse is opposing coaches now know him very well.
 
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#37
#37
I don't need a statistical analysis.

I just need this

2019-09-21-Tennessee-Guarantano-misses-Pope.gif
 
#41
#41
I was a JG supporter back in 2018. Mixed on him in 2019. And want him benched in 2020.

Some say he's always been this player, but actually, he's statically gotten worse every year since 2018. This is baffling since the players around him have gotten better.

One of my favorite stats is "Interception Adjusted Yards Per Attempt". This is a metric I've created; essentially, we modify yards per attempt by a -50 for every INT (which is close to what an INT is, a -50 yard play, on average). How does JG do on this metric?

In 2018, he did relatively well. He was 4th in the SEC at 7.18 mod ypa, behind only Tua, Jordan Ta'amu, and Jake Fromm. With some further improvement, JG seemed like he could become a good SEC QB.

Then what happened in 2019? He turned the ball over a lot more, but he still produced some big pass plays. His INT-adj ypa fell to 6.84, but he was still 5th best in the SEC on this metric, behind Tua, Burrow, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask.

In 2020, he has fallen all the way down to 11th in the SEC at 5.63 INT-mod ypa. He's only ahead of KJ Costello (who basically throws every play), Collin Hill, and Ken Seals.

Year: Int-Mod YPA (Rank)
2018: 7.18 (4)
2019: 6.84 (5)
2020: 5.63 (11)

Keep in mind, this doesn't even factor in fumbles, which would make the 2020 stats look even worse. Or the quality of the team surrounding him, which is much better now than in 2018.

Virtually every other veteran SEC QB has improved from last year.

Player: 2019 -> 2020
Mac Jones: 9.59 -> 11.84
Matt Corral: 6.81 -> 8.72
Kellen Mond: 5.84 -> 7.52
Kyle Trask: 7.32 -> 9.58
Bo Nix: 5.95 -> 6.15
JG: 6.84 -> 5.63

While I'm not 100% blaming JG here, as the coaches have screwed up IMO by not playing the best WRs, this is nevertheless an unusual trend. Almost all QBs in the SEC improve over time on this metric. JG has gotten worse every single year since 2018 in spite of having a better supporting cast every single year. Remember in 2018, we had a sieve of an O-line that barely left JG any time to throw, and that was the year with our weakest receiver group and the weakest run game as well. That was JG's best year statistically.

Does JG just not fit in Chaney's offense? Are our coaches doing a bad job coaching the QBs and the passing game? Or is this a JG-specific issue? I don't know the answer. We all know JG has played terrible this year, but it's even more shocking statistically when you examine how far he's declined in 2 years. The JG from 2018 is worlds better than the JG from 2020.

At this point, I'm ready to see Harrison Bailey, but I'm still afraid that it may be more of a coaching issue; something is clearly off. Veteran SEC QBs are not supposed to regress this much.

DG you receive a lot more likes for solid reasons - well done sir!!
 
#42
#42
Interesting post.

For reasons unknown to me, I went back last night and watched the 2018 Auburn game. Yes, he did get the benefit of receivers winning a few "50/50" balls, but you still have to account for the fact that those are designed throws and he was making them. The throw has to be to the outside and perfectly short of the receiver for him to highpoint the ball. And JG made them. He also threw several nice balls to the MIDDLE of the field that were caught for gains.

I also understand that he is a hot/cold kind of player, but it sure seems like the hot side is much less so these days.

He looks nothing like that now. It was depressing. I shouldn't have watched it.
All he has is the long floater down the field. Timing passes across the middle or touch
on a screen pass are beyond his capabilities. Sideline passes to wide receiver screens are done poorly. Slants are non-existent. I have seen him make one good pass on a medium out pattern in four years. He is without a doubt the worst starting Qb I have ever watched on any level including high school.
 
#43
#43
I know the body of work we have to look at with Maurer is very small but the Maurer we saw in the first half of the 2019 Georgia game was not the same Maurer we saw in the Arkansas 2020 game so I lean towards player development being the issue. BM and JG both seem to have regressed this year when we should have seen gains by being in the same system for 2 seasons.

So no blame goes on Maurer and JG?
 
#44
#44
So no blame goes on Maurer and JG?
IMO all the QB’s that have played this year looked unprepared and that lands squarely on the shoulders of the coaching staff. I think the argument could be made that the game plan for JG would be much different that the game plan for BM so that could explain his poor play so without a larger body of work maybe it isn‘t fair to blame the coaching staff on him.
 
#45
#45
If we got the production that he had in 2018 this year, we would have beaten Arkansas, and possibly Kentucky. Those 2 pick sixes sucked the air out of our team. As easy as it would be to just say he’s just bad and our offense will magically be fixed when we get a good qb in, I don’t think that’s it. We have major coaching issues. Something ain’t right. It’s up to Pruitt to fix it by next year or he’s very likely gone.


As much as the team says the right thing during interviews, we've seen with our own eyes the team light up and play more excited with other QBs. They know, with him, they are limited, they just can't say it or it becomes a story. Body language doesn't lie. Same ole JG comes pouring out of them.
 
#46
#46
IMO all the QB’s that have played this year looked unprepared and that lands squarely on the shoulders of the coaching staff. I think the argument could be made that the game plan for JG would be much different that the game plan for BM so that could explain his poor play so without a larger body of work maybe it isn‘t fair to blame the coaching staff on him.

Lol. I love the ones who just completely absolve players from accountability.
 
#47
#47
I was a JG supporter back in 2018. Mixed on him in 2019. And want him benched in 2020.

Some say he's always been this player, but actually, he's statically gotten worse every year since 2018. This is baffling since the players around him have gotten better.

One of my favorite stats is "Interception Adjusted Yards Per Attempt". This is a metric I've created; essentially, we modify yards per attempt by a -50 for every INT (which is close to what an INT is, a -50 yard play, on average). How does JG do on this metric?

In 2018, he did relatively well. He was 4th in the SEC at 7.18 mod ypa, behind only Tua, Jordan Ta'amu, and Jake Fromm. With some further improvement, JG seemed like he could become a good SEC QB.

Then what happened in 2019? He turned the ball over a lot more, but he still produced some big pass plays. His INT-adj ypa fell to 6.84, but he was still 5th best in the SEC on this metric, behind Tua, Burrow, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask.

In 2020, he has fallen all the way down to 11th in the SEC at 5.63 INT-mod ypa. He's only ahead of KJ Costello (who basically throws every play), Collin Hill, and Ken Seals.

Year: Int-Mod YPA (Rank)
2018: 7.18 (4)
2019: 6.84 (5)
2020: 5.63 (11)

Keep in mind, this doesn't even factor in fumbles, which would make the 2020 stats look even worse. Or the quality of the team surrounding him, which is much better now than in 2018.

Virtually every other veteran SEC QB has improved from last year.

Player: 2019 -> 2020
Mac Jones: 9.59 -> 11.84
Matt Corral: 6.81 -> 8.72
Kellen Mond: 5.84 -> 7.52
Kyle Trask: 7.32 -> 9.58
Bo Nix: 5.95 -> 6.15
JG: 6.84 -> 5.63

While I'm not 100% blaming JG here, as the coaches have screwed up IMO by not playing the best WRs, this is nevertheless an unusual trend. Almost all QBs in the SEC improve over time on this metric. JG has gotten worse every single year since 2018 in spite of having a better supporting cast every single year. Remember in 2018, we had a sieve of an O-line that barely left JG any time to throw, and that was the year with our weakest receiver group and the weakest run game as well. That was JG's best year statistically.

Does JG just not fit in Chaney's offense? Are our coaches doing a bad job coaching the QBs and the passing game? Or is this a JG-specific issue? I don't know the answer. We all know JG has played terrible this year, but it's even more shocking statistically when you examine how far he's declined in 2 years. The JG from 2018 is worlds better than the JG from 2020.

At this point, I'm ready to see Harrison Bailey, but I'm still afraid that it may be more of a coaching issue; something is clearly off. Veteran SEC QBs are not supposed to regress this much.

Can't really get on board this with a single home made statistic. You have to look at all the stats, or at least a few more.
 
#48
#48
Mmm, the overall team talent may be better, but is Guarantano throwing to better wideouts than Marquez Callaway and Jauan Jennings? I'm not so sure about that. I am, however, pretty sure that those two bailed out a lot of wonky Gaurantano passes from 2017-2019. I don't doubt the talent of the current Tennessee receivers, we've seen it from time to time, but Callaway and Jennings were a pretty good pair who brought unique things to the field. Callaway was super solid, solid enough to be drafted to the league. And Jennings was the definition of "go'n'get it," and let's be honest, a lot of Guarantano passes are made for that "go'n'get it" mentality.

Callaway no doubt had some clutch plays that were amazing but he disappeared during games. JJ is irreplaceable due to his leadership and determination but our receivers now are more talented.
 
#49
#49
I was a JG supporter back in 2018. Mixed on him in 2019. And want him benched in 2020.

Some say he's always been this player, but actually, he's statically gotten worse every year since 2018. This is baffling since the players around him have gotten better.

One of my favorite stats is "Interception Adjusted Yards Per Attempt". This is a metric I've created; essentially, we modify yards per attempt by a -50 for every INT (which is close to what an INT is, a -50 yard play, on average). How does JG do on this metric?

In 2018, he did relatively well. He was 4th in the SEC at 7.18 mod ypa, behind only Tua, Jordan Ta'amu, and Jake Fromm. With some further improvement, JG seemed like he could become a good SEC QB.

Then what happened in 2019? He turned the ball over a lot more, but he still produced some big pass plays. His INT-adj ypa fell to 6.84, but he was still 5th best in the SEC on this metric, behind Tua, Burrow, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask.

In 2020, he has fallen all the way down to 11th in the SEC at 5.63 INT-mod ypa. He's only ahead of KJ Costello (who basically throws every play), Collin Hill, and Ken Seals.

Year: Int-Mod YPA (Rank)
2018: 7.18 (4)
2019: 6.84 (5)
2020: 5.63 (11)

Keep in mind, this doesn't even factor in fumbles, which would make the 2020 stats look even worse. Or the quality of the team surrounding him, which is much better now than in 2018.

Virtually every other veteran SEC QB has improved from last year.

Player: 2019 -> 2020
Mac Jones: 9.59 -> 11.84
Matt Corral: 6.81 -> 8.72
Kellen Mond: 5.84 -> 7.52
Kyle Trask: 7.32 -> 9.58
Bo Nix: 5.95 -> 6.15
JG: 6.84 -> 5.63

While I'm not 100% blaming JG here, as the coaches have screwed up IMO by not playing the best WRs, this is nevertheless an unusual trend. Almost all QBs in the SEC improve over time on this metric. JG has gotten worse every single year since 2018 in spite of having a better supporting cast every single year. Remember in 2018, we had a sieve of an O-line that barely left JG any time to throw, and that was the year with our weakest receiver group and the weakest run game as well. That was JG's best year statistically.

Does JG just not fit in Chaney's offense? Are our coaches doing a bad job coaching the QBs and the passing game? Or is this a JG-specific issue? I don't know the answer. We all know JG has played terrible this year, but it's even more shocking statistically when you examine how far he's declined in 2 years. The JG from 2018 is worlds better than the JG from 2020.

At this point, I'm ready to see Harrison Bailey, but I'm still afraid that it may be more of a coaching issue; something is clearly off. Veteran SEC QBs are not supposed to regress this much.
Sounds like a Weinke issue to me
 
#50
#50
Callaway no doubt had some clutch plays that were amazing but he disappeared during games. JJ is irreplaceable due to his leadership and determination but our receivers now are more talented.
Are they? Based on what? Do they get separation? Are they tougher?
 

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