The Statistical Decline of JG

#1
DiderotsGhost

DiderotsGhost

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#1
I was a JG supporter back in 2018. Mixed on him in 2019. And want him benched in 2020.

Some say he's always been this player, but actually, he's statically gotten worse every year since 2018. This is baffling since the players around him have gotten better.

One of my favorite stats is "Interception Adjusted Yards Per Attempt". This is a metric I've created; essentially, we modify yards per attempt by a -50 for every INT (which is close to what an INT is, a -50 yard play, on average). How does JG do on this metric?

In 2018, he did relatively well. He was 4th in the SEC at 7.18 mod ypa, behind only Tua, Jordan Ta'amu, and Jake Fromm. With some further improvement, JG seemed like he could become a good SEC QB.

Then what happened in 2019? He turned the ball over a lot more, but he still produced some big pass plays. His INT-adj ypa fell to 6.84, but he was still 5th best in the SEC on this metric, behind Tua, Burrow, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask.

In 2020, he has fallen all the way down to 11th in the SEC at 5.63 INT-mod ypa. He's only ahead of KJ Costello (who basically throws every play), Collin Hill, and Ken Seals.

Year: Int-Mod YPA (Rank)
2018: 7.18 (4)
2019: 6.84 (5)
2020: 5.63 (11)

Keep in mind, this doesn't even factor in fumbles, which would make the 2020 stats look even worse. Or the quality of the team surrounding him, which is much better now than in 2018.

Virtually every other veteran SEC QB has improved from last year.

Player: 2019 -> 2020
Mac Jones: 9.59 -> 11.84
Matt Corral: 6.81 -> 8.72
Kellen Mond: 5.84 -> 7.52
Kyle Trask: 7.32 -> 9.58
Bo Nix: 5.95 -> 6.15
JG: 6.84 -> 5.63

While I'm not 100% blaming JG here, as the coaches have screwed up IMO by not playing the best WRs, this is nevertheless an unusual trend. Almost all QBs in the SEC improve over time on this metric. JG has gotten worse every single year since 2018 in spite of having a better supporting cast every single year. Remember in 2018, we had a sieve of an O-line that barely left JG any time to throw, and that was the year with our weakest receiver group and the weakest run game as well. That was JG's best year statistically.

Does JG just not fit in Chaney's offense? Are our coaches doing a bad job coaching the QBs and the passing game? Or is this a JG-specific issue? I don't know the answer. We all know JG has played terrible this year, but it's even more shocking statistically when you examine how far he's declined in 2 years. The JG from 2018 is worlds better than the JG from 2020.

At this point, I'm ready to see Harrison Bailey, but I'm still afraid that it may be more of a coaching issue; something is clearly off. Veteran SEC QBs are not supposed to regress this much.
 
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#2
#2
If we got the production that he had in 2018 this year, we would have beaten Arkansas, and possibly Kentucky. Those 2 pick sixes sucked the air out of our team. As easy as it would be to just say he’s just bad and our offense will magically be fixed when we get a good qb in, I don’t think that’s it. We have major coaching issues. Something ain’t right. It’s up to Pruitt to fix it by next year or he’s very likely gone.
 
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#3
#3
DiderotsGhost said:
I was a JG supporter back in 2018. Mixed on him in 2019. And want him benched in 2020.

Some say he's always been this player, but actually, he's statically gotten worse every year since 2018. This is baffling since the players around him have gotten better.

One of my favorite stats is "Interception Adjusted Yards Per Attempt". This is a metric I've created; essentially, we modify yards per attempt by a -50 for every INT (which is close to what an INT is, a -50 yard play, on average). How does JG do on this metric?

In 2018, he did relatively well. He was 4th in the SEC at 7.18 mod ypa, behind only Tua, Jordan Ta'amu, and Jake Fromm. With some further improvement, JG seemed like he could become a good SEC QB.

Then what happened in 2019? He turned the ball over a lot more, but he still produced some big pass plays. His INT-adj ypa fell to 6.84, but he was still 5th best in the SEC on this metric, behind Tua, Burrow, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask.

In 2020, he has fallen all the way down to 11th in the SEC at 5.63 INT-mod ypa. He's only ahead of KJ Costello (who basically throws every play), Collin Hill, and Ken Seals.

Year: Int-Mod YPA (Rank)
2018: 7.18 (4)
2019: 6.84 (5)
2020: 5.63 (11)

Keep in mind, this doesn't even factor in fumbles, which would make the 2020 stats look even worse. Or the quality of the team surrounding him, which is much better now than in 2018.

Virtually every other veteran SEC QB has improved from last year.

Player: 2019 -> 2020
Mac Jones: 9.59 -> 11.84
Matt Corral: 6.81 -> 8.72
Kellen Mond: 5.84 -> 7.52
Kyle Trask: 7.32 -> 9.58
Bo Nix: 5.95 -> 6.15
JG: 6.84 -> 5.63

While I'm not 100% blaming JG here, as the coaches have screwed up IMO by not playing the best WRs, this is nevertheless an unusual trend. Almost all QBs in the SEC improve over time on this metric. JG has gotten worse every single year since 2018 in spite of having a better supporting cast every single year. Remember in 2018, we had a sieve of an O-line that barely left JG any time to throw, and that was the year with our weakest receiver group and the weakest run game as well. That was JG's best year statistically.

Does JG just not fit in Chaney's offense? Are our coaches doing a bad job coaching the QBs and the passing game? Or is this a JG-specific issue? I don't know the answer. We all know JG has played terrible this year, but it's even more shocking statistically when you examine how far he's declined in 2 years. The JG from 2018 is worlds better than the JG from 2020.

At this point, I'm ready to see Harrison Bailey, but I'm still afraid that it may be more of a coaching issue; something is clearly off. Veteran SEC QBs are not supposed to regress this much.
Click to expand...
I know the body of work we have to look at with Maurer is very small but the Maurer we saw in the first half of the 2019 Georgia game was not the same Maurer we saw in the Arkansas 2020 game so I lean towards player development being the issue. BM and JG both seem to have regressed this year when we should have seen gains by being in the same system for 2 seasons.
 
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#4
#4
Mmm, the overall team talent may be better, but is Guarantano throwing to better wideouts than Marquez Callaway and Jauan Jennings? I'm not so sure about that. I am, however, pretty sure that those two bailed out a lot of wonky Gaurantano passes from 2017-2019. I don't doubt the talent of the current Tennessee receivers, we've seen it from time to time, but Callaway and Jennings were a pretty good pair who brought unique things to the field. Callaway was super solid, solid enough to be drafted to the league. And Jennings was the definition of "go'n'get it," and let's be honest, a lot of Guarantano passes are made for that "go'n'get it" mentality.
 
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#5
#5
Voltopia said:
Mmm, the overall team talent may be better, but is Guarantano throwing to better wideouts than Marquez Callaway and Jauan Jennings? I'm not so sure about that. I am, however, pretty sure that those two bailed out a lot of wonky Gaurantano passes from 2017-2019. I don't doubt the talent of the current Tennessee receivers, we've seen it from time to time, but Callaway and Jennings were a pretty good pair who brought unique things to the field. Callaway was super solid, solid enough to be drafted to the league. And Jennings was the definition of "go'n'get it," and let's be honest, a lot of Guarantano passes are made for that "go'n'get it" mentality.
Click to expand...
I made this same comment last season. How would JG be without those two big physical receivers who would go up and get the 50/50 ball that is really JG’s best pass route.
 
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#6
#6
Voltopia said:
Mmm, the overall team talent may be better, but is Guarantano throwing to better wideouts than Marquez Callaway and Jauan Jennings? I'm not so sure about that. I am, however, pretty sure that those two bailed out a lot of wonky Gaurantano passes from 2017-2019. I don't doubt the talent of the current Tennessee receivers, we've seen it from time to time, but Callaway and Jennings were a pretty good pair who brought unique things to the field. Callaway was super solid, solid enough to be drafted to the league. And Jennings was the definition of "go'n'get it," and let's be honest, a lot of Guarantano passes are made for that "go'n'get it" mentality.
Click to expand...

I agree that JG probably has a weaker group of WRs this year than last, but on the flipside, he had his strongest group of WRs in 2019 and did worse than in 2018. Jennings was coming off an injury in 2018 and struggled in the early part of the season. Callaway also played better in his Senior season. Moreover, the O-line was much better in '19 than '18. Yet, JG was statistically better in 2018.

While losing Jennings and Callaway is a blow, I'm not convinced we're throwing scrubs out there. We still have Palmer, Hyatt, and Johnson. The run game is much better now. O-line hasn't been perfect, but far and away better than in 2018. Yet, JG's stats look terrible in comparison to 2018.
 
#8
#8
50/50 balls, a term I detest. Jennings and Callaway bailed out JG so many times just out jumping the defender on balls throw up with a hope and a prayer. Lastly some people peak early in their careers. It appears JGs was high school. BM.....with injuries, covid and coach " not having enough time to develop other QBs" I'm not surprised he's behind.
 
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#10
#10
Zues1 said:
50/50 balls, a term I detest. Jennings and Callaway bailed out JG so many times just out jumping the defender on balls throw up with a hope and a prayer. Lastly some people peak early in their careers. It appears JGs was high school. BM.....with injuries, covid and coach " not having enough time to develop other QBs" I'm not surprised he's behind.
Click to expand...
Maybe BM's issue is related to his mental state. I wonder if he battled depression prior to his injury last season, or if it has been an ongoing thing with him. JMO, but I don't believe the QB's are getting the training they need from their position coach, so I think that is one coach that needs to be replaced. Maybe all the sacks JG has suffered during his time as the starter has affected him so much he can't overcome it.
 
#12
#12
Crazy, usually Cheney offenses improve in YR 2. I think JGs confidence has been crushed since Bama, and they have just tried to make him a game mgr. You can't play that way in today's game.
 
#14
#14
I saw a list a while back that had nine quarterbacks coached by Chaney that had played in the NFL. So it's hard for me to think that Chaney decided to quit coaching when he got here two years ago. Same goes with his play calling. He has been a little pass happy in calling his whole career. I think he is handcuffed by the talent he has taking snaps. I think BM and JT are not great. So I do blame the coaches for not putting Bailey in for trash time and speeding up his preparedness to play quicker this season. But I'm not ready to blame the coaching on JG's struggles just yet.
 
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#15
#15
DiderotsGhost said:
I was a JG supporter back in 2018. Mixed on him in 2019. And want him benched in 2020.

Some say he's always been this player, but actually, he's statically gotten worse every year since 2018. This is baffling since the players around him have gotten better.

One of my favorite stats is "Interception Adjusted Yards Per Attempt". This is a metric I've created; essentially, we modify yards per attempt by a -50 for every INT (which is close to what an INT is, a -50 yard play, on average). How does JG do on this metric?

In 2018, he did relatively well. He was 4th in the SEC at 7.18 mod ypa, behind only Tua, Jordan Ta'amu, and Jake Fromm. With some further improvement, JG seemed like he could become a good SEC QB.

Then what happened in 2019? He turned the ball over a lot more, but he still produced some big pass plays. His INT-adj ypa fell to 6.84, but he was still 5th best in the SEC on this metric, behind Tua, Burrow, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask.

In 2020, he has fallen all the way down to 11th in the SEC at 5.63 INT-mod ypa. He's only ahead of KJ Costello (who basically throws every play), Collin Hill, and Ken Seals.

Year: Int-Mod YPA (Rank)
2018: 7.18 (4)
2019: 6.84 (5)
2020: 5.63 (11)

Keep in mind, this doesn't even factor in fumbles, which would make the 2020 stats look even worse. Or the quality of the team surrounding him, which is much better now than in 2018.

Virtually every other veteran SEC QB has improved from last year.

Player: 2019 -> 2020
Mac Jones: 9.59 -> 11.84
Matt Corral: 6.81 -> 8.72
Kellen Mond: 5.84 -> 7.52
Kyle Trask: 7.32 -> 9.58
Bo Nix: 5.95 -> 6.15
JG: 6.84 -> 5.63

While I'm not 100% blaming JG here, as the coaches have screwed up IMO by not playing the best WRs, this is nevertheless an unusual trend. Almost all QBs in the SEC improve over time on this metric. JG has gotten worse every single year since 2018 in spite of having a better supporting cast every single year. Remember in 2018, we had a sieve of an O-line that barely left JG any time to throw, and that was the year with our weakest receiver group and the weakest run game as well. That was JG's best year statistically.

Does JG just not fit in Chaney's offense? Are our coaches doing a bad job coaching the QBs and the passing game? Or is this a JG-specific issue? I don't know the answer. We all know JG has played terrible this year, but it's even more shocking statistically when you examine how far he's declined in 2 years. The JG from 2018 is worlds better than the JG from 2020.

At this point, I'm ready to see Harrison Bailey, but I'm still afraid that it may be more of a coaching issue; something is clearly off. Veteran SEC QBs are not supposed to regress this much.
Click to expand...
K-Town King is really going to be upset to see your stats trump his stats.
 
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#16
#16
Not only has JG declined each year if you go back and look at the beginning of his career he didn't start off at an elite place. He started off very very average and has declined from there.

Now, if somebody would just speak up and tell Jeremy.
 
#20
#20
DaddyChad said:
Don’t worry he has another year of eligibility to turn it around.
Click to expand...
Just when I thought I couldn't be more depressed about UT football, I'm reminded of this possibility. UT football is like herpes. No cure...ever.
 
#21
#21
GTBATV said:
I saw a list a while back that had nine quarterbacks coached by Chaney that had played in the NFL. So it's hard for me to think that Chaney decided to quit coaching when he got here two years ago. Same goes with his play calling. He has been a little pass happy in calling his whole career. I think he is handcuffed by the talent he has taking snaps. I think BM and JT are not great. So I do blame the coaches for not putting Bailey in for trash time and speeding up his preparedness to play quicker this season. But I'm not ready to blame the coaching on JG's struggles just yet.
Click to expand...

I am asking a question, not arguing. Has or does Chaney actually coach/train QB's? Or does he take a QB that is being taught the finer points of the position by another coach and use him in his offense? (in our case Winkie supposed to teach in think)
 
#25
#25
Interesting post.

For reasons unknown to me, I went back last night and watched the 2018 Auburn game. Yes, he did get the benefit of receivers winning a few "50/50" balls, but you still have to account for the fact that those are designed throws and he was making them. The throw has to be to the outside and perfectly short of the receiver for him to highpoint the ball. And JG made them. He also threw several nice balls to the MIDDLE of the field that were caught for gains.

I also understand that he is a hot/cold kind of player, but it sure seems like the hot side is much less so these days.

He looks nothing like that now. It was depressing. I shouldn't have watched it.
 
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