DiderotsGhost
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I was a JG supporter back in 2018. Mixed on him in 2019. And want him benched in 2020.
Some say he's always been this player, but actually, he's statically gotten worse every year since 2018. This is baffling since the players around him have gotten better.
One of my favorite stats is "Interception Adjusted Yards Per Attempt". This is a metric I've created; essentially, we modify yards per attempt by a -50 for every INT (which is close to what an INT is, a -50 yard play, on average). How does JG do on this metric?
In 2018, he did relatively well. He was 4th in the SEC at 7.18 mod ypa, behind only Tua, Jordan Ta'amu, and Jake Fromm. With some further improvement, JG seemed like he could become a good SEC QB.
Then what happened in 2019? He turned the ball over a lot more, but he still produced some big pass plays. His INT-adj ypa fell to 6.84, but he was still 5th best in the SEC on this metric, behind Tua, Burrow, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask.
In 2020, he has fallen all the way down to 11th in the SEC at 5.63 INT-mod ypa. He's only ahead of KJ Costello (who basically throws every play), Collin Hill, and Ken Seals.
Year: Int-Mod YPA (Rank)
2018: 7.18 (4)
2019: 6.84 (5)
2020: 5.63 (11)
Keep in mind, this doesn't even factor in fumbles, which would make the 2020 stats look even worse. Or the quality of the team surrounding him, which is much better now than in 2018.
Virtually every other veteran SEC QB has improved from last year.
Player: 2019 -> 2020
Mac Jones: 9.59 -> 11.84
Matt Corral: 6.81 -> 8.72
Kellen Mond: 5.84 -> 7.52
Kyle Trask: 7.32 -> 9.58
Bo Nix: 5.95 -> 6.15
JG: 6.84 -> 5.63
While I'm not 100% blaming JG here, as the coaches have screwed up IMO by not playing the best WRs, this is nevertheless an unusual trend. Almost all QBs in the SEC improve over time on this metric. JG has gotten worse every single year since 2018 in spite of having a better supporting cast every single year. Remember in 2018, we had a sieve of an O-line that barely left JG any time to throw, and that was the year with our weakest receiver group and the weakest run game as well. That was JG's best year statistically.
Does JG just not fit in Chaney's offense? Are our coaches doing a bad job coaching the QBs and the passing game? Or is this a JG-specific issue? I don't know the answer. We all know JG has played terrible this year, but it's even more shocking statistically when you examine how far he's declined in 2 years. The JG from 2018 is worlds better than the JG from 2020.
At this point, I'm ready to see Harrison Bailey, but I'm still afraid that it may be more of a coaching issue; something is clearly off. Veteran SEC QBs are not supposed to regress this much.
Some say he's always been this player, but actually, he's statically gotten worse every year since 2018. This is baffling since the players around him have gotten better.
One of my favorite stats is "Interception Adjusted Yards Per Attempt". This is a metric I've created; essentially, we modify yards per attempt by a -50 for every INT (which is close to what an INT is, a -50 yard play, on average). How does JG do on this metric?
In 2018, he did relatively well. He was 4th in the SEC at 7.18 mod ypa, behind only Tua, Jordan Ta'amu, and Jake Fromm. With some further improvement, JG seemed like he could become a good SEC QB.
Then what happened in 2019? He turned the ball over a lot more, but he still produced some big pass plays. His INT-adj ypa fell to 6.84, but he was still 5th best in the SEC on this metric, behind Tua, Burrow, Mac Jones, and Kyle Trask.
In 2020, he has fallen all the way down to 11th in the SEC at 5.63 INT-mod ypa. He's only ahead of KJ Costello (who basically throws every play), Collin Hill, and Ken Seals.
Year: Int-Mod YPA (Rank)
2018: 7.18 (4)
2019: 6.84 (5)
2020: 5.63 (11)
Keep in mind, this doesn't even factor in fumbles, which would make the 2020 stats look even worse. Or the quality of the team surrounding him, which is much better now than in 2018.
Virtually every other veteran SEC QB has improved from last year.
Player: 2019 -> 2020
Mac Jones: 9.59 -> 11.84
Matt Corral: 6.81 -> 8.72
Kellen Mond: 5.84 -> 7.52
Kyle Trask: 7.32 -> 9.58
Bo Nix: 5.95 -> 6.15
JG: 6.84 -> 5.63
While I'm not 100% blaming JG here, as the coaches have screwed up IMO by not playing the best WRs, this is nevertheless an unusual trend. Almost all QBs in the SEC improve over time on this metric. JG has gotten worse every single year since 2018 in spite of having a better supporting cast every single year. Remember in 2018, we had a sieve of an O-line that barely left JG any time to throw, and that was the year with our weakest receiver group and the weakest run game as well. That was JG's best year statistically.
Does JG just not fit in Chaney's offense? Are our coaches doing a bad job coaching the QBs and the passing game? Or is this a JG-specific issue? I don't know the answer. We all know JG has played terrible this year, but it's even more shocking statistically when you examine how far he's declined in 2 years. The JG from 2018 is worlds better than the JG from 2020.
At this point, I'm ready to see Harrison Bailey, but I'm still afraid that it may be more of a coaching issue; something is clearly off. Veteran SEC QBs are not supposed to regress this much.
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