The Official Rick Barnes discussion thread

[kckempf]

The ones who showed up at school with the most talent.

Barnes did a lot to raise the profile of Knecht, who was on nobody's draft boards before he gave him the ball and told him to go into KD mode. The reality is that you're not going to coach a guy into that, but you sure can coach him out of it if you don't know what you're looking at.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

Every time I see this tired debate rear its ugly head, I always sit and try and at least consider WHO the replacement would be if we did push Barnes out, and the answer every time is “I have no idea.”

Seriously, I don’t know what our vocal minority of a fanbase wants. We’re not pulling an established, elite coach from another P4 program with how much money every program has now. We will be rolling the dice with another mid-major coach. It will be a huge risk when the time comes, and it may work out or it may crash and burn.

I look at who is out there now, and while some of the names are interesting, none of them are guarantees to succeed at the next level.

Bucky McMillan? Could be really fun and his ceiling is high, but his style of play also may not translate to high-major.

Ben McCollum? Probably my top choice right now, but unless Barnes retires this off-season he won’t be on the market any more.

Ryan Odom? Another pretty interesting choice. Also likely to not be available after this off-season.

Guys like Tony Skinn at GMU of and Russ Turner at UCI are interesting names as well, but a huge dice roll.

I say all this to illustrate the point that being so quick to hire any of these guys over Barnes is far more likely to result in disaster than it is a Final Four.

We’re not getting Nate Oats, Dusty May, TJ Otzelberger, etc.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

To add to that, there’s also zero guarantee if you hire a sitting P5 successful coach that it continues, look around at other schools that have managed to do that, not always successful. There’s about a 99.9% chance that right now is as good as it gets, I would suggest everyone be thankful for that and enjoy the moment and however much time of it we have left.

 

[MinisterofDef#92]

I'll just leave this here

 

[TheMookieMonster]

To add to that, there’s also zero guarantee if you hire a sitting P5 successful coach that it continues, look around at other schools that have managed to do that, not always successful. There’s about a 99.9% chance that right now is as good as it gets, I would suggest everyone be thankful for that and enjoy the moment and however much time of it we have left.

I also have no evidence to back this next claim up, so it’s just a guess, but I’m not ruling out that Rick won’t simply lobby (successfully) for one of the current assistants to get the head man gig. It’s a trend happening more frequently, and I know how much respect Rick has for his guys.

It would not shock me at all to see Justin Gainey in that role soon, so our fans really just need to appreciate what we have because it’s likely going to take a step back in some form or fashion soon. I know one thing, or conference rivals will be celebrating when Rick leaves, and that is usually a pretty clear case for knowing it doesn’t get better than this.

 

[Unimane]

I also have no evidence to back this next claim up, so it’s just a guess, but I’m not ruling out that Rick won’t simply lobby (successfully) for one of the current assistants to get the head man gig. It’s a trend happening more frequently, and I know how much respect Rick has for his guys.

It would not shock me at all to see Justin Gainey in that role soon, so our fans really just need to appreciate what we have because it’s likely going to take a step back in some form or fashion soon. I know one thing, or conference rivals will be celebrating when Rick leaves, and that is usually a pretty clear case for knowing it doesn’t get better than this.

I would be surprised. I know White respects Barnes, but White is a basketball guy and he's going to make his own call. He also knows Barnes time is running out, so I'm sure he's prepping himself to make a new hire sooner rather than later.

 

[OrangeBeachVol]

Every time I see this tired debate rear its ugly head, I always sit and try and at least consider WHO the replacement would be if we did push Barnes out, and the answer every time is “I have no idea.”

Seriously, I don’t know what our vocal minority of a fanbase wants. We’re not pulling an established, elite coach from another P4 program with how much money every program has now. We will be rolling the dice with another mid-major coach. It will be a huge risk when the time comes, and it may work out or it may crash and burn.

I look at who is out there now, and while some of the names are interesting, none of them are guarantees to succeed at the next level.

Bucky McMillan? Could be really fun and his ceiling is high, but his style of play also may not translate to high-major.

Ben McCollum? Probably my top choice right now, but unless Barnes retires this off-season he won’t be on the market any more.

Ryan Odom? Another pretty interesting choice. Also likely to not be available after this off-season.

Guys like Tony Skinn at GMU of and Russ Turner at UCI are interesting names as well, but a huge dice roll.

I say all this to illustrate the point that being so quick to hire any of these guys over Barnes is far more likely to result in disaster than it is a Final Four.

We’re not getting Nate Oats, Dusty May, TJ Otzelberger, etc.

With DW's history of hiring up and coming young coaches, see Caldwell, what makes you all think he won't still go that direction for Barnes replacement. If he did that would piss a lot of you off because you would want him to hire a proven championship level coach. Be careful what you wish for.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I also have no evidence to back this next claim up, so it’s just a guess, but I’m not ruling out that Rick won’t simply lobby (successfully) for one of the current assistants to get the head man gig. It’s a trend happening more frequently, and I know how much respect Rick has for his guys.

It would not shock me at all to see Justin Gainey in that role soon, so our fans really just need to appreciate what we have because it’s likely going to take a step back in some form or fashion soon. I know one thing, or conference rivals will be celebrating when Rick leaves, and that is usually a pretty clear case for knowing it doesn’t get better than this.

It may or may not be intentional/coincidental, but Rick has said many times he won’t make a decision immediately after the season, he’d get away for awhile and if not looking forward to getting back to things then he’d move on. If that’s the case then June/July seems plausible and that’s tough to run a legit search and typically results in an assistant being promoted for that season at the very least, which as you mention given his loyalty might work out for his own timeline as well as his preference that Gainey gets a shot.

 

[orangemadam]

Our offensive efficiency is currently higher now than it was last year. I guess that doesn’t help your theory.

So you are saying that we have a consistent offense? I guess the fact that we score
25 points some halves and 55 another is your definition of consistency. Doesn't meet the eye test.
People can make numbers support any position they want.

 

[orangemadam]

It's often said...and I believe it to be true....it's a combination of the type of players Barnes looks for along with his defensive system. His primary concern is finding elite defenders first and foremost. His system has shown over the years that it takes a toll on his teams as the season wears on. Certainly impacts shooting at times. On the flipside, you get a team of guys who are only interested on the offensive end and don't care a lick for defense and you'll have games where you can't spit in the ocean offensively with nothing to fall back on. I think I prefer Barnes system, but if you don't have the bench that can contribute, it's going to catch up with you eventually. This year was a bit of a perfect storm for Barnes. Picture this team with both Carr and Estrella available. I think we'd certainly have been a 1 seed. Lanier would have looked even better if teams can't focus on him as much as they currently do. We don't have a Knecht to the rescue this year. Gonna need lots of rest and a favorable draw to get to the sweet 16 in the NCAAT. My fear is that we'll actually start to believe that what we do or don't do in the SECT means a thing. I'd rather just be one and done in the SECT and focus on the big dance. It's way more important to our program and recruiting that our performance in the SECT.

I don't think it will matter how far we go in the SECT, even if we win 3 games, my point is that when
you have an inconsistency with your offense, you have little hope of a run to the EE. It only takes one
half of a weak offense to knock you out, even if you have won the SECT. You simply can't recover because
the farther you go, the better the team is that we will be facing and the greater the chance of getting
knocked out with 3 or 4 runs of not scoring. Defense can carry you only so far, gotta have scoring punch
that is more consistent than we have.

 

[Delmar]

With DW's history of hiring up and coming young coaches, see Caldwell, what makes you all think he won't still go that direction for Barnes replacement. If he did that would piss a lot of you off because you would want him to hire a proven championship level coach. Be careful what you wish for.

Going to be very difficult to hire a “proven championship level” coach. Very few of those around and they are already getting paid big money. And that doesn’t include the long timers that are getting tired of this brave new world and are hanging it up. Read an article not long ago that said there will be less big name movement nowadays. It will probably be an up and comer or a high level assistant. As you said, be careful what you wish for if you want Barnes to retire.

 

[VolGee4]

So you are saying that we have a consistent offense? I guess the fact that we score
25 points some halves and 55 another is your definition of consistency. Doesn't meet the eye test.
People can make numbers support any position they want.

KP is a leading metric in the industry used by analysts, the NET, and the committee to seed teams. It's straight forward. Pace is not the same as efficiency because we have the #1 defense that slows down the opponent's offensive possessions.

Every team has inconsistent halves. Alabama averages 91 points per game- they scored 34 against us in the 2nd half. They scored 31 against McNeese, 28 against Ole Miss, and 33 against Auburn.

There is no other way to say it- our offense this year is more efficient so far than last year.

 

[cncchris33]

It may or may not be intentional/coincidental, but Rick has said many times he won’t make a decision immediately after the season, he’d get away for awhile and if not looking forward to getting back to things then he’d move on. If that’s the case then June/July seems plausible and that’s tough to run a legit search and typically results in an assistant being promoted for that season at the very least, which as you mention given his loyalty might work out for his own timeline as well as his preference that Gainey gets a shot.

If he decides to hang it up in the summer, I won't be shocked to see Gainey get the interim job for a year, but unless he just blows the doors off in his one-year audition, I don't see him being the long-term option.

For starters, he has zero head coaching experience. That's a big strike against a guy at the highest level of coaching. Secondly, Danny White didn't hire Barnes or Gainey. The assistant promotion idea makes more sense if there is a long-running relationship of AD, head coach, and assistant. Think Kevin White, Mike Kryzewski, Jon Scheyer...and Scheyer had the added benefit of being a Duke alum.

Danny White being the businessman he is, isn't likely to give much more than cursory consideration to Barnes's desires for who replaces him. He has an obligation to the program to hire the best person and he has a decent track record of hiring coaches.

 

[VolArmy74]

I'm more worried that Barnes retires along with ZZ/Mashack etc. That would be a tough thing to overcome, losing our senior class and coach at the same time. But it's bound to happen eventually, and judging by his women's hire, and Oats at Buffalo, a pace pushing winner is likely the go to for White.

 

[omghulkhands]

If he decides to hang it up in the summer, I won't be shocked to see Gainey get the interim job for a year, but unless he just blows the doors off in his one-year audition, I don't see him being the long-term option.

For starters, he has zero head coaching experience. That's a big strike against a guy at the highest level of coaching. Secondly, Danny White didn't hire Barnes or Gainey. The assistant promotion idea makes more sense if there is a long-running relationship of AD, head coach, and assistant. Think Kevin White, Mike Kryzewski, Jon Scheyer...and Scheyer had the added benefit of being a Duke alum.

Danny White being the businessman he is, isn't likely to give much more than cursory consideration to Barnes's desires for who replaces him. He has an obligation to the program to hire the best person and he has a decent track record of hiring coaches.

I think there is a preponderance of circumstantial evidence that Barnes will heavily advocate to give the job to an assistant.

 

[orangemadam]

KP is a leading metric in the industry used by analysts, the NET, and the committee to seed teams. It's straight forward. Pace is not the same as efficiency because we have the #1 defense that slows down the opponent's offensive possessions.

Every team has inconsistent halves. Alabama averages 91 points per game- they scored 34 against us in the 2nd half. They scored 31 against McNeese, 28 against Ole Miss, and 33 against Auburn.

There is no other way to say it- our offense this year is more efficient so far than last year.

according to the metrics, however, we are not a top 20 offense either. As I pointed out,
last year was an aberration (look it up) because of Knecht. He is not there to bail us out this yr

 

[VolGee4]

according to the metrics, however, we are not a top 20 offense either. As I pointed out,
last year was an aberration (look it up) because of Knecht. He is not there to bail us out this yr

We are 21st.

You said last year was an "aberration because of Knecht." I simply responded and said our offensive efficiency is currently higher than where we ended last year.

Edit: Last year, we ended up 28th and 3rd in defensive efficiency. We are currently 21st and 1st in defensive efficiency- better in both!

 

[cncchris33]

I think there is a preponderance of circumstantial evidence that Barnes will heavily advocate to give the job to an assistant.

Sure, he can advocate for it. I'm just not sure it will matter for the reasons I listed.

 

[kckempf]

according to the metrics, however, we are not a top 20 offense either. As I pointed out,
last year was an aberration (look it up) because of Knecht. He is not there to bail us out this yr

But we do have a top 25 offense, if you pick a different arbitrary ranking to be the line.

 

[omghulkhands]

Sure, he can advocate for it. I'm just not sure it will matter for the reasons I listed.

I agree. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see him pull a Tony Bennett to all but guarantee it.

 

[cncchris33]

I agree. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see him pull a Tony Bennett to all but guarantee it.

I addressed that possibility. Gainey may get the job for a year on an interim basis if Barnes waits enough time to make a decision that conducting a reasonable coaching search isn't feasible, but unless he just doesn't miss a beat in that audition year, I doubt if he gets the job on a permanent basis.

 

[Chaz-Vol]

Do people think it's 55/45 likely to retire with that increasing vs decreasing depending on how things go in the tournament? Seems like a lot of people are talking about this like it's his last ride

 

[BernardKingGOAT]

So you are saying that we have a consistent offense? I guess the fact that we score
25 points some halves and 55 another is your definition of consistency. Doesn't meet the eye test.
People can make numbers support any position they want.

Certainly numbers can be manipulated but offensive and defensive efficiency kind of goes with the nature of this particular sport. IOW, it's extremely relevant

 

[omghulkhands]

I addressed that possibility. Gainey may get the job for a year on an interim basis if Barnes waits enough time to make a decision that conducting a reasonable coaching search isn't feasible, but unless he just doesn't miss a beat in that audition year, I doubt if he gets the job on a permanent basis.

Let’s say he leads us to a 9 seed NCAA tournament bid.

I know there is a lot of missing potential context to that. But let’s say healthy team. Mostly outside the top 25 all year. Lose in first round

What do you think happens in that audition year.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

So you are saying that we have a consistent offense? I guess the fact that we score
25 points some halves and 55 another is your definition of consistency. Doesn't meet the eye test.
People can make numbers support any position they want.

How many Top 10 teams haven’t had a half they’ve scored <25 this year?