The 4th and 3 that UT failed to pick up at the end...

[lukeneyland]

I initially complained a little about the decision but after watching the replay it was a perfectly designedly play. We just didn’t execute it. It’s ok Heupel is the man

 

[GAVol]

I initially complained a little about the decision but after watching the replay it was a perfectly designedly play. We just didn’t execute it. It’s ok Heupel is the man

It really was. You could tell that they didn't want to go downfield and probably didn't want to expose HH on a QB keep. That limited the options.

 

[Hank Bukowski]

I re-watched the game and noticed on the 4th and 3 with just over a minute left. If we pick that up, the game is over and UT wins by 17, covers the spread, and no one complains about Heupel being too conservative at the end. And we don't have to sweat out the onside kicks and heave towards the end zone at the end.

Bru McCoy was wide open for the 1st down about 5 or 6 yards deeper than Fant, but Hooker didn't see him. One of the few mistakes HH made all game. If he makes that throw, game, set, match. Take a knee, 17 point win.

Should have kicked FGs on both fourth-down tries. Maybe Heupel didn’t trust our defense to stop FL, which was 5 for 6 on fourth-down attempts…and which meant that Napier had great respect for our offense and wanted to keep them off the field and very little respect for our defense.

 

[DaddyChad]

Should have kicked FGs on both fourth-down tries. Maybe Heupel didn’t trust our defense to stop FL, which was 5 for 6 on fourth-down attempts…and which meant that Napier had great respect for our offense and wanted to keep them off the field and very little respect for our defense.

A 51 yard FG isn’t exactly a guaranteed. In fact probability is likely more on the side of getting the first down than hitting that

 

[DaddyChad]

If you want to get right down to percentages, nfl predicted success rate of a 50 yard FG is around 60% which put us up by two TDs. We were 6 of 10 on 3rd and 4th down conversions at that point in the game. A first down ends the game.

 

[ksgovols]

Let me ask you and everyone else a serious question. You have the following options:
1)Kick a 51 yard FG.
2)Punt and trust our defense.
3)Put the ball in the hands of your offense that hasn’t been stopped all game.

What do you think gives the highest probability of a win out of the above?

I have no problem with 1 or 3. If you miss the field goal or don' t make the first down (which we didn't), Florida gets the ball in the same spot barring a blocked FG or a turnover. The risk/reward is the same. Points that put the game away or time off the clock and 4 more downs that essentially put the game away. Flip a coin. There's not difference if the call fails. Nobody questions anything if the call succeeds.

If FG attempt was a 40 yarder or less, the metric probably changes and you take the points. I think distance is the only thing that kept Chase McGrath off the field there. We wind up throwing it to the kid who fumbled in the same part of the field earlier in the game.

 

[DaddyChad]

I have no problem with 1 or 3. If you miss the field goal or don' t make the first down (which we didn't), Florida gets the ball in the same spot barring a blocked FG or a turnover. The risk/reward is the same. Points that put the game away or time off the clock and 4 more downs that essentially put the game away. Flip a coin. There's not difference if the call fails. Nobody questions anything if the call succeeds.

If FG attempt was a 40 yarder or less, the metric probably changes and you take the points. I think distance is the only thing that kept Chase McGrath off the field there.

Agree. Again I was quoting nfl kicker percentages, Heupel likely knows the distance he’s comfortable with McGrath. Also again it’s not likely but Florida still could’ve tied with two scores. A first down pretty much ices the game. Heupel being an offensive guy probably trusts his offense more.

 

[Hank Bukowski]

A 51 yard FG isn’t exactly a guaranteed. In fact probability is likely more on the side of getting the first down than hitting that

Disagree. Our kicker has nailed a 52-yarder and had the leg. Should have taken the points or the chance at the points. And most certainly should have taken the other FG, which was 30-something yards, I believe. Heupel has done this before. I think it’s the QB in him always wanting to go for it. Final score would, could, should have been 44-33.

 

[DaddyChad]

Disagree. Our kicker has nailed a 52-yarder and had the leg. Should have taken the points or the chance at the points. And most certainly should have taken the other FG, which was 30-something yards, I believe. Heupel has done this before. I think it’s the QB in him always wanting to go for it. Final score would, could, should have been 44-33.

McGrath is 50% from 50 yards plus for his career, he’s hit 3 of 6. He’s also missed a fg this year between 40-50 yards. And this was a very, very big game.

 

[bpalmer28]

You have a QB that’s top tier, Wide receivers that have been great, and an O line that couldn’t punish the likes of Akron and Ball StAte.
Trying to close out the game wasn’t a good time to be trying to get to that point of punishing the other team. That’s what practice and the weight room are for.

Nobody’s talking about the consequences of an incomplete pass on 1st, 2nd, or 3rd down.

How might the outcome have changed if Florida had time to run 2 or 3 more plays?

 

[bpalmer28]

That was a terrible series. Run 3 straight plays and only got 7 yards. It will forever baffle me as to why Heupel didn’t go for the throat. We could have easily put that game away.

Or given the game away by stopping the clock with an incomplete pass. I don’t know about you but I’m glad Florida didn’t have an extra 0:30 on the clock at the end.

They had 6 guys in the box. We should have been able to pick up a first down on the ground, IMO

 

[VOLfrombama]

Heup took a timeout there. I have no clue how they didn't get their point across to Fant et al, but dangit, run to the frickin sticks you dang ding-a-ling.

I can just hear the coaches ripping him a new one about that in the film room on Sunday.

 

[Vol865]

Let me ask you and everyone else a serious question. You have the following options:
1)Kick a 51 yard FG.
2)Punt and trust our defense.
3)Put the ball in the hands of your offense that hasn’t been stopped all game.

What do you think gives the highest probability of a win out of the above?

47 yds and I'm taking the points to stretch the lead because the playcalls on the previous 3 plays showed they were not committed to getting a 1st down or putting the game away

 

[marcusluvsvols]

Still like our chances of picking up 3 yards better.

He missed from 47 against Akron.

They kept saying on the radio broadcast (i am not listening to Vern n Gary) while i watched the game on TV , that our kicker was 6 for 6, then 7 for 7 on the season. Did they get that wrong....or was there a missed FG against akron that didnt count because of a penalty maybe? I cant remember bud.

Either way, i am still glad we went for the 4th down...my problem is the 3 straight runs up the middle where the 449lb DT was.....we needed better playcalling right there. I think if we ran the option play on 1 of those downs it could have been game over and saved every VOL fan another week or 2 of life on this planet from the cardiac stress damage lmao. GO VOLS

 

[NighthawkVol]

I have no problem with 1 or 3. If you miss the field goal or don' t make the first down (which we didn't), Florida gets the ball in the same spot barring a blocked FG or a turnover. The risk/reward is the same.

No, the risk/reward is not the same. The risk is the same (I would argue that the risk was higher on the FG, since we're less likely to hit a 47 yarder than to convert a 4th and 3 with this offense, but for the sake of this discussion, we'll say they're equally likely). However, the reward for making the 4th down is that the game is over. Florida was out of timeouts There was about a minute left. Tennessee takes 2 knees. The reward for hitting the FG is that UT is up 14 and is kicking off to Florida. Florida can still get a quick score, get an onside (which they did) and have a chance to tie and win in OT.

The reward for making the 4th down was much higher...basically, a win. The reward for hitting the FG is making a win highly probable, but far less definite, especially with the way our secondary was playing. Coach made the right call, it just wasn't executed.

 

[NighthawkVol]

They kept saying on the radio broadcast (i am not listening to Vern n Gary) while i watched the game on TV , that our kicker was 6 for 6, then 7 for 7 on the season. Did they get that wrong....or was there a missed FG against akron that didnt count because of a penalty maybe? I cant remember bud.

Either way, i am still glad we went for the 4th down...my problem is the 3 straight runs up the middle where the 449lb DT was.....we needed better playcalling right there. I think if we ran the option play on 1 of those downs it could have been game over and saved every VOL fan another week or 2 of life on this planet from the cardiac stress damage lmao. GO VOLS

They were wrong. He missed a 47 yarder against Akron.

 

[DiderotsGhost]

I re-watched the game and noticed on the 4th and 3 with just over a minute left. If we pick that up, the game is over and UT wins by 17, covers the spread, and no one complains about Heupel being too conservative at the end. And we don't have to sweat out the onside kicks and heave towards the end zone at the end.

That honestly makes it more baffling. If you're going to go for it on 4th anyway, why not throw in a surprise pass on 2nd or 3rd. I get you want to run the clock, but I still think the "play super-conservative to run out the clock when the defense can't stop your offense" move is terrible. It's not just Heupel; a lot of coaches do it. I've seen more coaches burned by this than almost any other strategy. It makes no sense on an analytical level. Just play normal, pick up the 1st down, and run the clock when you can. Once you're at a point where you can run it down all the way (or close enough), then you take a knee.

 

[whobethis16]

No, the risk/reward is not the same. The risk is the same (I would argue that the risk was higher on the FG, since we're less likely to hit a 47 yarder than to convert a 4th and 3 with this offense, but for the sake of this discussion, we'll say they're equally likely). However, the reward for making the 4th down is that the game is over. Florida was out of timeouts There was about a minute left. Tennessee takes 2 knees. The reward for hitting the FG is that UT is up 14 and is kicking off to Florida. Florida can still get a quick score, get an onside (which they did) and have a chance to tie and win in OT.

The reward for making the 4th down was much higher...basically, a win. The reward for hitting the FG is making a win highly probable, but far less definite, especially with the way our secondary was playing. Coach made the right call, it just wasn't executed.

You have to look at the worst vs best: is the worst case scenario for going for it (not converting, Florida gets the ball there down 11) better than the best case scenario for kicking the field goal (kicking off, which all but 1 was a touchback, and up 14). In the worst case of going for it, Florida needs a TD+2 and a FG to tie (or 2 TDs to win). In the best case of kicking it, Florida needs 2 TDs+1 to tie, which is a lot less likely to happen.

Yes, going for it and getting it is the absolute best case, but you have to weigh all options. To me, going up 2 full TDs especially with Florida having 0 timeouts is better than failing to convert.

 

[marcusluvsvols]

They were wrong. He missed a 47 yarder against Akron.

^^^ and this is why one shouldn't be diqk to people when you think they are mistaken and perhaps you are right. Even Vol radio broadcast gets it wrong sometimes. They said our kicker was perfect on the season.

Much better to be open minded than to stick feet in mouth in my experience. Thanks for the heads up bud.

 

[PACKERVOL]

I re-watched the game and noticed on the 4th and 3 with just over a minute left. If we pick that up, the game is over and UT wins by 17, covers the spread, and no one complains about Heupel being too conservative at the end. And we don't have to sweat out the onside kicks and heave towards the end zone at the end.

Bru McCoy was wide open for the 1st down about 5 or 6 yards deeper than Fant, but Hooker didn't see him. One of the few mistakes HH made all game. If he makes that throw, game, set, match. Take a knee, 17 point win.

I saw that, too, and you are right about hitting that one giving us game, set, and match. I didn't want or need that much excitement at the end.

 

[BACKDOC]

That was a terrible series. Run 3 straight plays and only got 7 yards. It will forever baffle me as to why Heupel didn’t go for the throat. We could have easily put that game away.

Well we did pick up one 1st down to milk some clock.

 

[WilcoVolsFan]

Normally I would as well but that whole series was bad

Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia

 

[Orange-U-Glad]

I saw somewhere that by HH was struggling with injury that limited the offense, making it difficult for him to throw. Heard no details. I agree that the pass should have at least been tor 3 yards.

 

[VolMack——————$]

Watch any great team and you’ll see them execute run plays well when the defense gives it to them. Heupel knows this.

As I said this offense isn’t built to run over teams late in the fourth quarter. Now give it time with better quality and better depth then you may see that. But you don’t stop doing what you’ve already done to a team for nearly the whole game. This isn’t the old days where you can pound the ball out cause the other team is tired. This was Florida! They have depth and talent…..

 

[VolMack——————$]

Let me ask you and everyone else a serious question. You have the following options:
1)Kick a 51 yard FG.
2)Punt and trust our defense.
3)Put the ball in the hands of your offense that hasn’t been stopped all game.

What do you think gives the highest probability of a win out of the above?

Answering 1-3 (1)This was Florida. (2) They weren’t giving in to nothing ala 4th down conversions. (3) your contradicting yourself by the conversation below this one. Stating that Hooker was hurting and noway run him. Now saying that and the mentality that this offense plays. CH or Hooker would say….we’re just gonna continue to run our offense (that’s the offense mentality) RPO’s. This all depends on the read of the Qb on what the defense is doing. Was he hurting trying to finish the game who knows. The best probability to win…..RUN PASS OPTION! Not run run run