SEC Tournament Seeding

#52

VolFann9

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#52
1644169132381.png

Big day yesterday for SEC seeding. Here's a quick summary:

1) We are trending more and more towards #3 seed, meaning we will most likely play #6 in our first game. We want to play Miss St or Florida in this game, heck even LSU, but do not want to catch Bama. They are too dangerous in a tournament setting.

2) Vandy and Kentucky helped knock LSU and Bama further down the board, essentially leaving it a Tennessee, Arkansas, and Miss St race for the 3rd and 4th seeds. According to Kenpom, LSU, Bama, and Florida are all trending towards 9-9 in conference and tied for 6th place. For three-team tiebreaker, it goes to team with best overall win percentage, which would be LSU.

3) Unfortunately, assuming we win our first game, I see almost no way to avoid a clash with Kentucky. Unless our season falls off the rails, we will meet them in 2/3 matchup in Semi-Finals. I think UK is the best team in the conference, but hey, you have to beat the best to be the best.
 
#53

TheMookieMonster

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#53
3) Unfortunately, assuming we win our first game, I see almost no way to avoid a clash with Kentucky. Unless our season falls off the rails, we will meet them in 2/3 matchup in Semi-Finals. I think UK is the best team in the conference, but hey, you have to beat the best to be the best.
I honestly don’t think the difference between Kentucky and Auburn is THAT big. You’re going to have to beat one of them to get to the finals regardless. I think the other matchups are what’s more important.
 
#54

VolFann9

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#54
I honestly don’t think the difference between Kentucky and Auburn is THAT big. You’re going to have to beat one of them to get to the finals regardless. I think the other matchups are what’s more important.
As of today, with the 3 seed you are most likely playing LSU and UK to get to the finals. With the 4 seed, you are playing Miss State and Auburn. Obviously I want to win as many games as possible and get the 3 seed, but looking at it in a vacuum--I know which path I would rather have.
 
#55

TheMookieMonster

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#55
As of today, with the 3 seed you are most likely playing LSU and UK to get to the finals. With the 4 seed, you are playing Miss State and Auburn. Obviously I want to win as many games as possible and get the 3 seed, but looking at it in a vacuum--I know which path I would rather have.
True. But, the difference between a 3 and a 4 in the SEC tournament is likely one game, and that one extra loss in the regular season could be the difference between a seed line for us in the NCAAT. I’m take as many wins as I can get in the regular season and then roll the dice and see what happens in the SECT.
 
#56

UTvol1fn

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#56
True. But, the difference between a 3 and a 4 in the SEC tournament is likely one game, and that one extra loss in the regular season could be the difference between a seed line for us in the NCAAT. I’m take as many wins as I can get in the regular season and then roll the dice and see what happens in the SECT.
this is the correct thinking.
 
#58

bleedingTNorange

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#58
It looks like it will be a logjam in the 5-7 spots and probably go to a tie breaker. Hard to say right now what difference in opponent there will be.

Here’s TR’s current probabilities for our tournament seed and associated win probability.
View attachment 432945
Essentially 92% chance at a double bye, like that.
 
#59

cncchris33

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#59
It looks like it will be a logjam in the 5-7 spots and probably go to a tie breaker. Hard to say right now what difference in opponent there will be.

Here’s TR’s current probabilities for our tournament seed and associated win probability.
View attachment 432945
Why does it even calculate a 15th and 16th slot? SEC only has 14 teams.
 
#63

VolFann9

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#63
1645147310228.png

We are now tied for 2nd with Kentucky. For both teams, KenPom is projecting a 14-4 conference finish, with Kentucky having a higher chance at hitting that figure than us. Assuming we both finish 14-4, then tie breaker would come down to record against #1 team Auburn. Kentucky is 0-1 against them for the season. Essentially, if we beat Auburn at home (23-7, 14-4) or better, then we will most likely be the 2 seed playing against a Florida or Mississippi State in our first game. That regular season finish, coupled with beating Kentucky/LSU in the semi-finals, would lock up a NCAAT 3 seed and possibly push us to a 2 seed.
 
#64

BallerVolFan

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#64
View attachment 434638

We are now tied for 2nd with Kentucky. For both teams, KenPom is projecting a 14-4 conference finish, with Kentucky having a higher chance at hitting that figure than us. Assuming we both finish 14-4, then tie breaker would come down to record against #1 team Auburn. Kentucky is 0-1 against them for the season. Essentially, if we beat Auburn at home (23-7, 14-4) or better, then we will most likely be the 2 seed playing against a Florida or Mississippi State in our first game. That regular season finish, coupled with beating Kentucky/LSU in the semi-finals, would lock up a NCAAT 3 seed and possibly push us to a 2 seed.
If we finish the season going 4-1 with a win over Auburn, we’re going to be in a very good position.
 
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#65

TheMookieMonster

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#65
View attachment 434638

We are now tied for 2nd with Kentucky. For both teams, KenPom is projecting a 14-4 conference finish, with Kentucky having a higher chance at hitting that figure than us. Assuming we both finish 14-4, then tie breaker would come down to record against #1 team Auburn. Kentucky is 0-1 against them for the season. Essentially, if we beat Auburn at home (23-7, 14-4) or better, then we will most likely be the 2 seed playing against a Florida or Mississippi State in our first game. That regular season finish, coupled with beating Kentucky/LSU in the semi-finals, would lock up a NCAAT 3 seed and possibly push us to a 2 seed.
Finishing 2nd would be huge, because that means you don't have to face LSU or Alabama likely, and your path to the semis is much easier. Then you just one of those two teams upsets Kentucky.
 
#66

Stoerner Fumbles

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#66
I’d assume that Vegas odds game by game would put us at either a 2-3 finish or 3-2. Ten year-old me sees 5-0 or 4-1, but we all need to contemplate the fact that 3-2, and a 3/4 in the SEC tournament is over-performing against the odds. That plus two tournament wins would put us in a good spot on selection Sunday.
 
#67

bleedingTNorange

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#67
I’d assume that Vegas odds game by game would put us at either a 2-3 finish or 3-2. Ten year-old me sees 5-0 or 4-1, but we all need to contemplate the fact that 3-2, and a 3/4 in the SEC tournament is over-performing against the odds. That plus two tournament wins would put us in a good spot on selection Sunday.
4-1 is most likely, then 3-2, then 5-0, then 2-3. 3-2 finish or better would be a great regular season.
 
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#68

Stoerner Fumbles

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#68
4-1 is most likely, then 3-2, then 5-0, then 2-3. 3-2 finish or better would be a great regular season.
I agree that 3-2+ is a good finish. We’re +3 today, I’d assume -4 or better Mizzou and UGA, but I assume our divergence is AU at home. I tend to think they’ll be favored. We have not done well defending that offense, and they’re the best they’ve ever been. We shoot so we’ll at home, I can see a win, of course. That said, from an odds perspective, I’m not sure 4-1 is the most likely outcome. I’d be really pleased if we hit that mark.
 
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#69

bleedingTNorange

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#69
I agree that 3-2+ is a good finish. We’re +3 today, I’d assume -4 or better Mizzou and UGA, but I assume our divergence is AU at home. I tend to think they’ll be favored. We have not done well defending that offense, and they’re the best they’ve ever been. We shoot so we’ll at home, I can see a win, of course. That said, from an odds perspective, I’m not sure 4-1 is the most likely outcome. I’d be really pleased if we hit that mark.
We are likely 10+pt favorites against Missouri and Georgia, so Vegas sees those almost as sure wins… then 50/50’s against @Arkansas and Auburn, and slight small favorites against Arkansas at home as of today. That works out to 4-1 as most probable but not all that far ahead of 3-2.
 
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#71

Stoerner Fumbles

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#71
We are likely 10+pt favorites against Missouri and Georgia, so Vegas sees those almost as sure wins… then 50/50’s against @Arkansas and Auburn, and slight small favorites against Arkansas at home as of today. That works out to 4-1 as most probable but not all that far ahead of 3-2.
It’s difficult to shift from point odds to percentages, but we are not favored today, and I don’t think we will be at home against Auburn. I see 10+ point spread vs Missouri away as unlikely, but not impossible. The fluidity of where our final SEC ranking falls is completely in the ether today. After Ak, it will be meaningfully different after today.
 
#72

Woodlawn VOL

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#72
uk & aub will beat tenn @ knoxville . They just have better front court players.
Ok we will just take you word for it!NOT! What happened to Kentucky????Man, Auburn may win but Please nothing is a sure thing. The Vols are capable of beating auburn folks saying they have no chance make me even feel better about it. In basketball anything can happen and we have proved we can play with anyone on any given day or night. GBO!
 

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