Recruiting Forum Off Topic Thread III

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Yep. Not surprised. I’d venture to guess that @Glitch was right when he predicted the actual death numbers of covid are actually around 40k, and the vast majority of them are people in nursing homes.

Yeah. If even that high. Never let a good crisis go to waste.
 
To be fair, Clay at least provided links to support what he said, which automatically makes him a better journalist than anyone at CNN, MSNBC, etc., who apparently expect you to just take their word for it.
We could just eliminate the free press, be like Russia, China, N. Korea, Irian.
 
Clay clearly doesn't know how to read a report. The seasonal flu mortality for the 2019 season was estimated (by the CDC) to be 0.0126% of symptomatic flu illnesses in those aged 0-49. The most likely scenario of the 5 indicated in that report was 0.05% of all cases age 0-49 (including the 35% estimated to be asymptomatic). That makes COVID-19 mortality at least 4x worse, and if you compare symptomatic to symptomatic cases (apples to apples), that raises COVID-19 to 6x more lethal than the seasonal flu among those age 0-49.

The same report he cited shows the R0 to be estimated at 2.5, which means herd immunity comes at 66%. At herd immunity, that would translate to about 73,000 deaths among those aged 0-49.
 
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Clay clearly doesn't know how to read a report. The seasonal flu mortality for the 2019 season was estimated (by the CDC) to be 0.0126% of symptomatic flu illnesses in those aged 0-49. The most likely scenario of the 5 indicated in that report was 0.05% of all cases age 0-49 (including the 35% estimated to be asymptomatic). That makes COVID-19 mortality at least 4x worse, and if you compare symptomatic to symptomatic cases (apples to apples), that raises COVID-19 to 6x more lethal than the seasonal flu among those age 0-49.

The same report he cited shows the R0 to be estimated at 2.5, which means herd immunity comes at 66%. At herd immunity, that would translate to about 73,000 deaths among those aged 0-49.
You are consistent, Just the Facts, maam.

However, that data is a month old and doesn't include numbers since April 29. And the flu has vaccines and antiviral treatments, which cannot yet be considered for Covid-19. I wonder what these numbers will look like in a year, ole Clay may end up being correct.
 
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Random question for everyone: do we think the mask thing is going to last the remainder of the year? Talking about weekend trips with my dad in the fall to the sportsbook and he’s convinced that masks being required is a given to last the reminder of the year - I say no.
 
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You are consistent, Just the Facts, maam.

However, that data is a month old and doesn't include numbers since April 29. And the flu has vaccines and antiviral treatments, which cannot yet be considered for Covid-19. I wonder what these numbers will look like in a year, ole Clay may end up being correct.

I'm not arguing the validity of the CDC report, only that it doesn't say what Clay is claiming it says. So many people are quick to grab the first thing they think supports their position and run with it. I'm just bothering to see if it really says that. It doesn't.

It's like citing CDC deaths as evidence that far fewer have died than claimed. Folks grab the number they like from a tweet and run with it. If you look at the CDC's excess deaths due to all causes, there are anywhere from 74284 (based on official excess definition) to 88471 (based on deaths above average) excess deaths through the first week of May. That sounds very close to the Johns Hopkins official death toll on May 9th of 79202. Which means the deaths are real, and most likely due to the virus. You can argue the cause, but the data is what it is. It is also interesting that the CDC showed excess deaths for causes not related to COVID, yet there really wasn't anything else going on. Suggests that <gasp!> COVID deaths may have actually been under-reported.

ExcessDeaths.png
 
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