Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

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#122,726
#122,726
drvenner said:
There is no doubt that the mitigation has saved lives and will continue to do so. Not sure why it's even a debate. What is actually being enforced in Tennessee? Not much, but a lot of people are cooperating.
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I think we all agree with that. Social distancing is working. But the charts were wrong before too. The estimates from Thursday compared to Sunday were drastically different, though there were no major changes in our social distancing efforts over those few days.
 
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#122,727
#122,727
Ulysees E. McGill said:
I go back and forth on this a lot, but I always go back to the Italian situation. That was not a number mirage...it got out of hand quick, and completely overwhelmed their health care system, and without mitigation here, it would have been the same story.
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Look at the Diamond Princess. If you assume that the quarantine efforts there were a compete failure, no benefit at all, then the virus stopped spreading due to herd immunity. It infected 20%. That translates to a R0 of 1.25 and extended to the US, would mean 66M to get herd immunity. If the quarantine on the ship reduced the total infected at all, you are right back to the 1.5 that was cited at the low end.

Stay home for a bit longer. It's helping.
 
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#122,728
#122,728
SSVol said:
I'm talking about the basic replication rate of the virus, and the required level of inoculation to reach herd immunity. If there are new estimates of R0, that aren't artificially skewed by mitigation, I'm all ears.

All I'm saying is that the exponential expansion was quite linear and consistent with the R0 that I've stated ad nauseum, until mitigation efforts kicked in, at which time the log graph started flattening. I'm certain that there could have been other factors that changed it, but I can't quantify those.

I honestly don't want to fight about it.
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So what you're saying is, if the numbers stayed high, you were right. And if the numbers dropped, you were right. Ever thought about politics?

jk
 
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#122,729
#122,729
Ulysees E. McGill said:
It is absolutely key. It may end up really helping my boss despite the vast shortage in mileage...if he gets the help he thinks is going to happen.

We could actually come out stronger in the end.
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Yep, the relief provided to sole proprietors and self employed is fantastic. My income will definitely be down, but any relief from that legislation will allow me to spend money.
 
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#122,730
#122,730
Kristy* said:
I think we all agree with that. Social distancing is working. But the charts were wrong before too. The estimates from Thursday compared to Sunday were drastically different, though there were no major changes in our social distancing efforts over those few days.
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Definitely were wrong. I think they erred on the side of caution with their modeling so they would not be reviled if it turned out worse than they predicted.
 
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#122,731
#122,731
WriterVol said:
Interesting notes about this data:

Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on March 26, 2020, 8.2% of the deaths occurring during the week ending March 21, 2020 (week 12) were due to P&I. This percentage is above the epidemic threshold of 7.2% for week 12.

While the percent of all deaths due to P&I has increased during weeks 9-12 (7.4-8.2%), the percent of all deaths with Influenza listed as a cause have decreased (from 1.0% to 0.8%) over this same time period. The increase in pneumonia deaths during this time period are likely associated with COVID-19 rather than influenza.

Source:
Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView)
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Fine, what happened to all of the heart attacks?
 
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#122,732
#122,732
My daughter just called a few minutes ago...A nurse that works with my daughter at a nursing home in Alabama had to get tested today...she is freaking out because since their house got flooded a couple of months ago, they have been staying with the grandparents...so my FiLs heart is working at about 15-20%, kidneys functioning at 15-20%, scirocis of the liver, and just had pneumonia five weeks ago and almost died a couple of weeks before my mom...and..just found out this week he has lymphoma...

Anyway...please pray..we have had enough death and trouble to last us for a long while. We lost three very dear, lifelong, family friends and my mother in the last month.
 
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#122,733
#122,733
OrangenSC said:
So what you're saying is, if the numbers stayed high, you were right. And if the numbers dropped, you were right. Ever thought about politics?

jk
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At least I'm explaining my logic, and it hasn't changed at all. There's only two numbers, R0 and mortality. I'll happily entertain science based revisions to either one.
 
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#122,735
#122,735
SSVol said:
Look at the Diamond Princess. If you assume that the quarantine efforts there were a compete failure, no benefit at all, then the virus stopped spreading due to herd immunity. It infected 20%. That translates to a R0 of 1.25 and extended to the US, would mean 66M to get herd immunity. If the quarantine on the ship reduced the total infected at all, you are right back to the 1.5 that was cited at the low end.

Stay home for a bit longer. It's helping.
Click to expand...

Viruses are going to spread easier in close quarters. Cruise ships breading grounds for sicknesses.
 
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#122,736
#122,736
Ulysees E. McGill said:
It is absolutely key. It may end up really helping my boss despite the vast shortage in mileage...if he gets the help he thinks is going to happen.

We could actually come out stronger in the end.
Click to expand...

And then we have to figure out how our kids and grandkids are supposed to pay for it all.
 
#122,742
#122,742
Kristy* said:
Viruses are going to spread easier in close quarters. Cruise ships breading grounds for sicknesses.
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It's obviously tighter there than outside, but folks are pretty close in cities too.

But whatever. I built a case as to why it's a problem if we don't mitigate, and why mitigating was apparent in the changes to the data, and why mitigating has greatly affected the outcome. If others want to build the case that none of this mattered and we just crapped away an entire year for no good reason, be my guest.
 
#122,749
#122,749
Ulysees E. McGill said:
My daughter just called a few minutes ago...A nurse that works with my daughter at a nursing home in Alabama had to get tested today...she is freaking out because since their house got flooded a couple of months ago, they have been staying with the grandparents...so my FiLs heart is working at about 15-20%, kidneys functioning at 15-20%, scirocis of the liver, and just had pneumonia five weeks ago and almost died a couple of weeks before my mom...and..just found out this week he has lymphoma...

Anyway...please pray..we have had enough death and trouble to last us for a long while. We lost three very dear, lifelong, family friends and my mother in the last month.
Click to expand...

You’ve certainly had your share, and then some, of heartbreak in a short amount of time. 😞. May God give you and all around you, strength.
 
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