I go back and forth on this a lot, but I always go back to the Italian situation. That was not a number mirage...it got out of hand quick, and completely overwhelmed their health care system, and without mitigation here, it would have been the same story.I'm talking about the basic replication rate of the virus, and the required level of inoculation to reach herd immunity. If there are new estimates of R0, that aren't artificially skewed by mitigation, I'm all ears.
All I'm saying is that the exponential expansion was quite linear and consistent with the R0 that I've stated ad nauseum, until mitigation efforts kicked in, at which time the log graph started flattening. I'm certain that there could have been other factors that changed it, but I can't quantify those.
I honestly don't want to fight about it.
Wow...I hope we can pull this one out, but it just seems like they are gonna pull away soon..Dayton continues its hot streak from behind the line. 5/5 from 3 right now. Tennessee has focused its game inside. Pretty clear the game plan is get Fulkerson and Pons as many touches as possible.
Dayton 23-20 with 9 minutes to play
The log graph was flat until 6-8 days after schools were closed, which was the first mitigation step.
I see no evidence that the basic R0 of 1.5 to 3.5 was wrong.
There is no doubt that the mitigation has saved lives and will continue to do so. Not sure why it's even a debate. What is actually being enforced in Tennessee? Not much, but a lot of people are cooperating.It’s changed in every freaking state because mitigation helps but they were wrong. Keep doing it and if this continues then start opening up May 1-15
Hey friend@nicksjuzunk , how are you feeling this evening? How's the family member you mentioned who was also sick?