Pons declares for draft

n_huffhines

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Seems like they're shooting themselves in the foot with the age requirement then.

I 100% follow the logic of the age ding, but I just don't understand why that's even being discussed in Pons's case. Only now has he ever been in a position to even consider the NBA, and that's as a fringe second rounder. He had to have an upward trajectory in terms of draft stock in order to get there. I just don't think his specific trajectory is going to affected by the age ding since he has much left to prove and improve.

I'm not saying I think he should stay - he should do whatever he wants. Can you give an example of a player who was adveresly affected by their age in regards to the draft? Not trying to be argumentative; I'm sure you know stuff that I don't.
They made the age requirement because they were tired of striking out on HS talent. They know it's a gamble to draft young guys but they can't help themselves. Look at the draft lottery any given season...it's not really based on proven talent. It's largely based on potential talent.
 
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They made the age requirement because they were tired of striking out on HS talent. They know it's a gamble to draft young guys but they can't help themselves. Look at the draft lottery any given season...it's not based on proven talent. It's largely based on potential talent.
Hmmm I dunno. It almost seems like you're contradicting your thesis now....
 

n_huffhines

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Hmmm I dunno. It almost seems like you're contradicting your thesis now....
Try this. If I'm 21 and they're pretty sure I'm an 83/100 (based off 90 games) and you're 19 and they think you're a 79/100 (based off 30 games), who is an NBA team going to pick and why?

They'll pick you because if you're already a 79, what will you be in 2 years? The perceived higher ceiling is what they value, while they acknowledge you may not ever become an actual 83.
 
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BruinVol

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If you guys looked back at the grant williams recruiting thread his age was a big factor why I liked his signing.
from a scouting standpoint the Older you are means the closer you are to the final product of reaching your ceiling. That’s why younger is more appealing
 

therickbol

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No. That's not the logic. The logic is only that NBA teams ding you for age. It doesn't have to make sense, it's just what they do.

If Pons shoots 40% from 3 and wins SEC DPOY, he will clearly have made the right decision in staying. If he shoots 34% from 3 and is just all defensive honors again, it will have been the wrong decision.
I think more than anything you are misguided in what will help or hurt his draft stock. I think the NBA has decent confidence that know what he is or can become as a perimeter shooter at the next level. I don't think his shooting percentage this season will have a huge effect on that. I think there are other parts of his game that the NBA is much less clear about. They need to see him improve his on-ball perimeter defense (he is much better as a help defender), his ball-handling, court awareness, passing, more diversified moves to score in the paint just to make a few.
 

n_huffhines

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I think more than anything you are misguided in what will help or hurt his draft stock. I think the NBA has decent confidence that know what he is or can become as a perimeter shooter at the next level. I don't think his shooting percentage this season will have a huge effect on that. I think there are other parts of his game that the NBA is much less clear about. They need to see him improve his on-ball perimeter defense (he is much better as a help defender), his ball-handling, court awareness, passing, more diversified moves to score in the paint just to make a few.
The NBA bases their shooting scouting off his form, his 3p shooting stats, and his free throw shooting stats.

His form is solid and he has a quick release. His 3p % is OK, but there isn't a lot of volume so these stats aren't very reliable. His FT % is not good but there isn't a lot of volume so these stats aren't very reliable.

I would say scouts are looking at his shooting as a question mark at this point. If he comes back next year and shoots twice as many 3's and hits 35% again, that's great.

My personal opinion is scouts look at his defensive game and believe they can make him elite at all aspects of the game on that end of the floor. The only thing that will keep him off the floor is if he can't reliably shoot. I don't think they are looking at him thinking they'll get him touches with his back to the basket. I don't see scouts looking at him thinking he'll ever be used to handle the ball, other than swing passes and high screen handoffs.

If you can be the 24 YO old, athletic version of PJ Tucker, then NBA teams will put a ton of value on you. Tucker can't even defend the rim and he can't switch onto guards very well. Imagine a version of Tucker that can do both those things.
 
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bleedingTNorange

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No. That's not the logic. The logic is only that NBA teams ding you for age. It doesn't have to make sense, it's just what they do.

If Pons shoots 40% from 3 and wins SEC DPOY, he will clearly have made the right decision in staying. If he shoots 34% from 3 and is just all defensive honors again, it will have been the wrong decision.
You are making it way too black and white, I would simply say if he gets drafted next year it was likely the right decision. Especially if it’s mid-2nd round or earlier, most agree that he’s late 2nd round-undrafted this year.

Maybe he shoots 34% but shows an improve free throw stroke, mid range game, and improved ball handling...maybe that 34% is on 3x the number of 3’s he attempted this past year, and most are highly contested. You can’t just make it that black and white.
 
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I don't think that many free throws are needed to tell if somebody does it well or not. Shooting, yes because every shot is unique. Good free throw shooters are going to knock down 7, 8, or 9 of EVERY 10 attempts and will rarely miss 4 or 5 of 10.
 
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