Pons declares for draft

bleedingTNorange

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I think the current status of the covid world is going to hurt the development of many players.
It puts more on each individual player to do the work on their own, I do think it will effect some guys and especially freshman who maybe don’t fully know the commitment needed...a guy like Pons I’m not too worried about.
 

BruinVol

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It puts more on each individual player to do the work on their own, I do think it will effect some guys and especially freshman who maybe don’t fully know the commitment needed...a guy like Pons I’m not too worried about.
I guess that depends on access to a gym for working out and shooting. At best I think all players missed at least some gym time in the last few months
 

n_huffhines

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You said shooting under 30%, I don’t think it’s gonna be an issue if he shoots 33% this year verse 34% last year...if he shoots 28% this year then yes, that will be an issue. Again though, I don’t think it’s very likely at all he shoots under 30%, you seem to think there’s a good chance of that happening.
You're getting way too hung up on specific numbers. He's supposed to improve this upcoming year, so shooting 33% would be a disappointment. That's the point. His future in the NBA is as a 3 and D F/wing. He's not going to do anything as a ball handler or scorer in 2021 that changes how scouts feel about him. He's gotta get better at shooting and/or D* to make scouts feel better about him, and he's giving up a year to do that, so what would be the point in coming back to shoot 33%?

*Which he's already been SEC all-defensive honors, so he'd need to be SEC DPOY to improve his resume there.
 
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Maybe it shouldn't be, but I promise you that NBA teams put a ton of value on being young and they downgrade you for being old. Remember how badly the Suns got torched last year for drafting Cameron Johnson in the lottery? Brandon Clarke fell to 21. Those were maybe the two most NBA-ready players in the draft and they had great rookie years, but they were older so they were undervalued by the NBA community.
they sign 4 year deals. 26 is not worse than 25
 

n_huffhines

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they sign 4 year deals. 26 is not worse than 25
It's not about how old they'll be by the end of the contract, it's about projecting upside. If you are raw and 19, fine, because NBA teams look at that as untapped potential. If you are 22, you're closer to being what you are going to be and they see less untapped potential.
 

bleedingTNorange

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I guess that depends on access to a gym for working out and shooting. At best I think all players missed at least some gym time in the last few months
I disagree, I’m sure some did, but I know Maze has had his facility open this entire time for guys he invites...Bowden has been spending a lot of time there as well as the kids that live locally and play for his AAU squad.
 

BruinVol

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I disagree, I’m sure some did, but I know Maze has had his facility open this entire time for guys he invites...Bowden has been spending a lot of time there as well as the kids that live locally and play for his AAU squad.
Well Pons isn’t anywhere close to mays facility and if he had his facility open the entire time he was defying the guidelines.

Anyway it’s clear every single player has had their normal developmental/workout routine adversely effected the last few months. That isn’t debatable. The severity can be debated
 

bleedingTNorange

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You're getting way too hung up on specific numbers. He's supposed to improve this upcoming year, so shooting 33% would be a disappointment. That's the point. His future in the NBA is as a 3 and D F/wing. He's not going to do anything as a ball handler or scorer in 2021 that changes how scouts feel about him. He's gotta get better at shooting and/or D* to make scouts feel better about him, and he's giving up a year to do that, so what would be the point in coming back to shoot 33%?

*Which he's already been SEC all-defensive honors, so he'd need to be SEC DPOY to improve his resume there.
You're getting way too hung up on specific numbers. He's supposed to improve this upcoming year, so shooting 33% would be a disappointment. That's the point. His future in the NBA is as a 3 and D F/wing. He's not going to do anything as a ball handler or scorer in 2021 that changes how scouts feel about him. He's gotta get better at shooting and/or D* to make scouts feel better about him, and he's giving up a year to do that, so what would be the point in coming back to shoot 33%?

*Which he's already been SEC all-defensive honors, so he'd need to be SEC DPOY to improve his resume there.
Your OP which I responded to specifically stated the “risk of shooting <30% from 3”...that was where I disagreed with you, so I’m not hung up on a number, that was literally what you said and what I was replying to.

You didn’t say “the risk of coming back and his 3pt% not improving is not worth it”, had you that would be different. I agree in that in order to improve his stock that percentage likely needs to improve, as I don’t think he can make big enough strides in other areas, the most likely would seem to be FT and 3pt percentages.

I’m not sure what he will shoot, but I am very confident it won’t be under 30%, nor do I think there’s much “risk” of that happening.
 

bleedingTNorange

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Well Pons isn’t anywhere close to mays facility and if he had his facility open the entire time he was defying the guidelines.

Anyway it’s clear every single player has had their normal developmental/workout routine adversely effected the last few months. That isn’t debatable. The severity can be debated
It wasn’t open to the public, so what guideline was he defying?

Never said it wasn’t effected, to what extent is the question...are you suggesting no player in America is going to improve their game as a result of this situation? This situation can have an effect but you still find a way to improve your game, we will see some guys improve.
 

n_huffhines

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Your OP which I responded to specifically stated the “risk of shooting <30% from 3”...that was where I disagreed with you, so I’m not hung up on a number, that was literally what you said and what I was replying to.

You didn’t say “the risk of coming back and his 3pt% not improving is not worth it”, had you that would be different. I agree in that in order to improve his stock that percentage likely needs to improve, as I don’t think he can make big enough strides in other areas, the most likely would seem to be FT and 3pt percentages.

I’m not sure what he will shoot, but I am very confident it won’t be under 30%, nor do I think there’s much “risk” of that happening.
I know it's a number I threw out there. You're still hung up on it despite my trying to move past it. It was just a hypothetical number to illustrate the point. I've clarified and reiterated what the underlying point was like 3x and you still want to talk about that number. IDK why. The point is it's risky to come back.

I also mentioned that he could shoot 40% next year, which seems crazier than 30%, and somehow you didn't get hung up on that number.
 

bleedingTNorange

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I know it's a number I threw out there. You're still hung up on it despite my trying to move past it. It was just a hypothetical number to illustrate the point. I've clarified and reiterated what the underlying point was like 3x and you still want to talk about that number. IDK why. The point is it's risky to come back.

I also mentioned that he could shoot 40% next year, which seems crazier than 30%, and somehow you didn't get hung up on that number.
Unless you know what his grade is from NBA GM’s I’m not sure how you can definitively say it’s risky to come back? Is he’s being told you are going undrafted then I see very little risk in coming back, if he’s been told that he’s early-mid 2nd rounder then yes, it’s a bit risky.
 
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n_huffhines

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Unless you know what his grade is from NBA GM’s I’m not sure how you can definitively say it’s risky to come back? Is he’s being told you are going undrafted then I see very little risk in coming back, if he’s been told that he’s early-mid 2nd rounder then yes, it’s a bit risky.
If he's being told he would go undrafted, then there is little risk. I would be totally shocked if he went undrafted.
 

LeannaVol

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I had no idea that B Maze's operation is organized as a charity. A not-for-profit doesn't surprise me, Cherokee Country Club is a not-for-profit. But a "charity"? Wow.

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I saw 501(c)(3) not for profit. That doesn't keep Maze or anyone else from getting a nice salary. Not criticizing just stating it doesn't limit payroll too much. I didn't realize Jaden Springer's dad was on the staff either. I see there is another Springer class of 2022. A 6'8 power forward. Wonder if he is a target.
 

BruinVol

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It wasn’t open to the public, so what guideline was he defying?

Never said it wasn’t effected, to what extent is the question...are you suggesting no player in America is going to improve their game as a result of this situation? This situation can have an effect but you still find a way to improve your game, we will see some guys improve.
I think the normal development of players throughout this year will be less than normal in all sports other than golf. That’s the one sport kids are playing more of than normal. The rest of the sports will see smaller jumps in development
 

bleedingTNorange

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If he's being told he would go undrafted, then there is little risk. I would be totally shocked if he went undrafted.
Well most mocks I have seen don’t have him listed...I’m aware of the couple that do, but if you search out ~10 or so the majority don’t have him listed...and most all of the ones that do have him mid-late 2nd round which as most know is hardly a guarantee of anything.

So yea, if your opinion is that he’s an early 2nd round lock then I can see your stance on it being a risk, but like I said you would be in the minority of people if you think he’d go that high.
 
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I saw 501(c)(3) not for profit. That doesn't keep Maze or anyone else from getting a nice salary. Not criticizing just stating it doesn't limit payroll too much. I didn't realize Jaden Springer's dad was on the staff either. I see there is another Springer class of 2022. A 6'8 power forward. Wonder if he is a target.
That seems to be the case. Salaries aren't necessarily limited. I guess it's not too much different from universities and colleges though. They have a not-for-profit status that allows them to take gifts that are tax deductable to the donors while turning around and handing out millions in salaries to coaches and athletic department administrators.
 
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I think age does appear to historically be a factor in the draft, however I would be curious to know if age + "elite for even elite athletes"-athleticism makes that less of a factor. I know there's been many JR/SR players drafted but I'm not sure many have possessed his athletic abilities. I could be wrong. However I do believe most of the time when they're drafted, they are generally more skilled all-around (known as the "steady point guard who can run an offense" or the "career 35%+ 3p shooter" or just the "big defensive center" although those have fallen off a lot lately). They've carved out a serious niche on winning teams for year. 3-4 year starters. Pons is different...he has carved out a defensive niche, has recently shown 3pt prowess, but has only had recent legitimate success with increased playing time. I'd say his elite athleticism plus 3 years of steady improvement is still appealing, even with a 4th year in college.
 
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I just can't believe that an extra year in college with normal (not below average) progression would hurt a player's draft stock in the slightest. I agree that if a player comes back for his senior year and does not improve at all that that would hurt him because it becomes apparent that the player has already reached his ceiling. So it's not just that they are at a certain level and are a certain age but that they have stalled out for whatever reason. But if you are seeing normal to good progression, that would not be a negative.

The observed thing about age that you guys are noting is just due to the fact that uber-talented players declare younger because of that talent.
 

n_huffhines

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I just can't believe that an extra year in college with normal (not below average) progression would hurt a player's draft stock in the slightest. I agree that if a player comes back for his senior year and does not improve at all that that would hurt him because it becomes apparent that the player has already reached his ceiling. So it's not just that they are at a certain level and are a certain age but that they have stalled out for whatever reason. But if you are seeing normal to good progression, that would not be a negative.

The observed thing about age that you guys are noting is just due to the fact that uber-talented players declare younger because of that talent.
Bottom line is if you play like Pons and look like Pons and you are 3 years younger, you'll get drafted well before Pons.
 

therickbol

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Bottom line is if you play like Pons and look like Pons and you are 3 years younger, you'll get drafted well before Pons.
Lol, strong logic. So if followed everybody should declare as freshman because they will "never be younger" am I right?!? Look like Pons but show improvement in some areas of deficiency (some areas are strong deficiencies) and guess what.....you get drafted earlier. Whoa 🤯 He must prove that he is either "not the worst ball-handling/play-making guard in the NBA" or "not a dime a dozen undersized post with zero ability to create his own shot around the basket except for his fadeaway" before an NBA team is going to use a 1st round pick on him. And none of that is said to say he is not good. In fact he improved much more than expected between seasons. I was thrilled with what he brought to the table last season. Which is the exact evidence to support the idea that he will work hard and once again improve significantly between seasons.
 

n_huffhines

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Lol, strong logic. So if followed everybody should declare as freshman because they will "never be younger" am I right?!? Look like Pons but show improvement in some areas of deficiency (some areas are strong deficiencies) and guess what.....you get drafted earlier. Whoa 🤯 He must prove that he is either "not the worst ball-handling/play-making guard in the NBA" or "not a dime a dozen undersized post with zero ability to create his own shot around the basket except for his fadeaway" before an NBA team is going to use a 1st round pick on him. And none of that is said to say he is not good. In fact he improved much more than expected between seasons. I was thrilled with what he brought to the table last season. Which is the exact evidence to support the idea that he will work hard and once again improve significantly between seasons.
No. That's not the logic. The logic is only that NBA teams ding you for age. It doesn't have to make sense, it's just what they do.

If Pons shoots 40% from 3 and wins SEC DPOY, he will clearly have made the right decision in staying. If he shoots 34% from 3 and is just all defensive honors again, it will have been the wrong decision.
 
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No. That's not the logic. The logic is only that NBA teams ding you for age. It doesn't have to make sense, it's just what they do.
Seems like they're shooting themselves in the foot with the age requirement then.

I 100% follow the logic of the age ding, but I just don't understand why that's even being discussed in Pons's case. Only now has he ever been in a position to even consider the NBA, and that's as a fringe second rounder. He had to have an upward trajectory in terms of draft stock in order to get there. I just don't think his specific trajectory is going to affected by the age ding since he has much left to prove and improve.

I'm not saying I think he should stay - he should do whatever he wants. Can you give an example of a player who was adveresly affected by their age in regards to the draft? Not trying to be argumentative; I'm sure you know stuff that I don't.
 

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