Pons declares for draft

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If you think Barnes is lying to throw coaches off the film watching trail I have some ocean front property down at the old Jon Majors homestead in Huntland I’ll sell you.
It wouldn't be a lie if he simply doesn't share Pons' plans. Playing with or without Pons would be a major difference in strategy. It's not whether or not Pember would be on the active roster or not. It's the SEC Defensive POY.
 

rdk4121

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It wouldn't be a lie if he simply doesn't share Pons' plans. Playing with or without Pons would be a major difference in strategy. It's not whether or not Pember would be on the active roster or not. It's the SEC Defensive POY.
He said Pons would be going through the draft process again a year from now. That is sharing Pons' plans, at least what Rick knows. As far as strategy everyone will know if he's back or not by August. There would still be months of time for opponents to come up with strategies. Not sure that really factors in that much.
 

BruinVol

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He said Pons would be going through the draft process again a year from now. That is sharing Pons' plans, at least what Rick knows. As far as strategy everyone will know if he's back or not by August. There would still be months of time for opponents to come up with strategies. Not sure that really factors in that much.
Yep and he ain’t lying to make Coaches waste time watching film this summer.
Lol that’s silly to suggest
 
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He said Pons would be going through the draft process again a year from now. That is sharing Pons' plans, at least what Rick knows. As far as strategy everyone will know if he's back or not by August. There would still be months of time for opponents to come up with strategies. Not sure that really factors in that much.
At Wisconsin is in 5 months. Every opponent will have about 25 teams to understand and prepare for.

Shortening the window whether or not Pons is on the roster is certainly an advantage worth taking advantage of. There's already less than a year of video on Vescovi and JJJ and none on the 3 freshmen. I see no good reason for Barnes to offer any extra info about his team to future opponents.
 
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n_huffhines

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Seems like a mistake to come back. If he's adding new skills, great, but if not, the risk of shooting < 30% from 3p is scary, and teams like younger picks
 

bleedingTNorange

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Seems like a mistake to come back. If he's adding new skills, great, but if not, the risk of shooting < 30% from 3p is scary, and teams like younger picks
He’s a career 34% three point shooter, and should see even better looks this upcoming season than he did last, not sure why you’d think there’s much chance at all of him being a sub 30% shooter.
 

BruinVol

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He’s a career 34% three point shooter, and should see even better looks this upcoming season than he did last, not sure why you’d think there’s much chance at all of him being a sub 30% shooter.
I think the 30% number is safe but I think it’s entirely reasonable to think his draft stock is as high as it ever will be this year. I doubt he gets nearly as much of an offensive rope next season as this past year. His numbers won’t go up and likely go Down imo. Plus his age won’t be seen as a good thing either
 

n_huffhines

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He’s a career 34% three point shooter, and should see even better looks this upcoming season than he did last, not sure why you’d think there’s much chance at all of him being a sub 30% shooter.
He's only taken 114 3p's in his career over 3 years. If he had made just 4 fewer 3's last year, he would have been at 30%. That's a slim margin and it wouldn't be that surprising if he were off by that margin this next year. Couple that with a questionable FT% and scouts will really be worried about his shooting potential.

Of course, what if he hits 40%? I guess he'd be taking a gamble on himself.
 

n_huffhines

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The age thing is a non-factor.
Maybe it shouldn't be, but I promise you that NBA teams put a ton of value on being young and they downgrade you for being old. Remember how badly the Suns got torched last year for drafting Cameron Johnson in the lottery? Brandon Clarke fell to 21. Those were maybe the two most NBA-ready players in the draft and they had great rookie years, but they were older so they were undervalued by the NBA community.
 

bleedingTNorange

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I think the 30% number is safe but I think it’s entirely reasonable to think his draft stock is as high as it ever will be this year. I doubt he gets nearly as much of an offensive rope next season as this past year. His numbers won’t go up and likely go Down imo. Plus his age won’t be seen as a good thing either
That’s hard to say without knowing what his stock is....if he goes mid-2nd next year does that mean his stock went up or down? I think getting more exposure on a good team, potentially defending SEC DPOY, and while maybe he doesn’t get as many shots percentages could increase which would excite scouts. You don’t have to score 18ppg, if he shows increases in his percentages, especially FT%, scouts will take notice of that.
 

bleedingTNorange

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He's only taken 114 3p's in his career over 3 years. If he had made just 4 fewer 3's last year, he would have been at 30%. That's a slim margin and it wouldn't be that surprising if he were off by that margin this next year. Couple that with a questionable FT% and scouts will really be worried about his shooting potential.

Of course, what if he hits 40%? I guess he'd be taking a gamble on himself.
Just hard for me to think a guy with his work ethic that has improved every season is now going to get worse.
 

n_huffhines

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Just hard for me to think a guy with his work ethic that has improved every season is now going to get worse.
Shooting a lower % might not mean he actually got worse as a shooter. He will probably get better, but that doesn't mean the % will be better. Maybe last year he got really good looks and this year will be different. Maybe 34% is a fluke and doesn't accurately represent how good he was. A nagging injury could get in the way of good shooting. Nobody works harder on shooting than Steph Curry, and he's had seasons where he drops off by 3-4%. It doesn't mean he got worse.
 
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rdk4121

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I think he can certainly improve his stock. I don't think he'd be a lottery pick next year, but he could go early twenties if he improves some fundamentals. Look at Brandon Clarke. I think he was even a RS senior, and he went 22. He's got a similar athletic makeup as Pons.
 

bleedingTNorange

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Shooting a lower % might not mean he actually got worse as a shooter. He will probably get better, but that doesn't mean the % will be better. Maybe last year he got really good looks and this year will be different. Maybe 34% is a fluke and doesn't accurately represent how good he was. A nagging injury could get in the way of good shooting. Nobody works harder on shooting than Steph Curry, and he's had seasons where he drops off by 3-4%. It doesn't mean he got worse.
Not sure what argument could possibly be made to say that Pons looks this year will be worse than last year. If you wanna speculate that he could get some fluke injury or something then ok, but that wasn’t the original point...if you offered up bets on Pons shooting O/U 30% I think you’d get flooded with money on the over, that’s much more likely than the under...you disagree?
 

n_huffhines

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Not sure what argument could possibly be made to say that Pons looks this year will be worse than last year. If you wanna speculate that he could get some fluke injury or something then ok, but that wasn’t the original point...if you offered up bets on Pons shooting O/U 30% I think you’d get flooded with money on the over, that’s much more likely than the under...you disagree?
My underlying point is that there is a really good chance his 3p% goes down, even if he's becoming a better shooter. It happens all the time. If his FT% were good, I would lean towards his 3p% getting better, but his FT% is not good. FT% is actually supposed to be the best indication of NBA 3p shooting potential, but I think part of that is because guys tend to shoot more FT's (so the data is more reliable) than 3's, but not Pons. He doesn't shoot many FT's.

The overall point is nobody knows what Pons will shoot in 2020 and it's risky seeing as how he shot an adequate % last year.
 

bleedingTNorange

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My underlying point is that there is a really good chance his 3p% goes down, even if he's becoming a better shooter. It happens all the time. If his FT% were good, I would lean towards his 3p% getting better, but his FT% is not good. FT% is actually supposed to be the best indication of NBA 3p shooting potential, but I think part of that is because guys tend to shoot more FT's (so the data is more reliable) than 3's, but not Pons. He doesn't shoot many FT's.

The overall point is nobody knows what Pons will shoot in 2020 and it's risky seeing as how he shot an adequate % last year.
You said shooting under 30%, I don’t think it’s gonna be an issue if he shoots 33% this year verse 34% last year...if he shoots 28% this year then yes, that will be an issue. Again though, I don’t think it’s very likely at all he shoots under 30%, you seem to think there’s a good chance of that happening.
 

bleedingTNorange

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Also...Pons shot 42% last season on “catch and shoot open 3’s”, it would seem very likely his attempts in that category will go up while his guarded 3pt attempts will go down...if that is the case then simple math tells you his percentage would likely go up. I would venture to guess that is something he’s been told and thought about, that his quality of looks will go up next year.
 
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