Official Global Warming thread (merged)

#4,805
#4,805
Mtntrout said:
Are you saying you don't think Milankovitch cycles are real, or that you don't think the geologic record is real, or both? I'd like to hear more about how the effects of decreasing sun angles, seasonality, and intensity are unknowable, in your opinion. I don't understand how you can say studying the past to understand the present and future is "loony" or whatever. What is this idea based on?

Then, maybe you can explain how that fits in to the last 150 years of warming, "coinciding" with a rise in greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere that apparently isn't "dominant" because it isn't a longer term phenomenon. Seriously, could you explain how phenomena that are "long-term" are thus more dominant? That's a really fascinating claim that I would enjoy hearing examples of.

Seems pretty obvious to me that a global phenomenon with no natural analog is perfectly able to supersede the gentle long-term trends of orbital shifts dependent on long-term positive feedback loops that are being undermined, if one just follows the data.
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They are one guy's theory. They are long natural cycles. And, if they are then to say they don't dominate the current climate would be ridiculous.
 
#4,812
#4,812
VolsNSkinsFan said:
I have no idea I've only asked you 3-4 times only to be ignored. I mean a temperature reading is the temperature, not sure why they have to be adjusted.
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If you measured the temperature in the middle of your lawn and also in the middle of your driveway, would the thermometer read the same? How about on the east side of your house and the west side of your house?

No, they wouldn't. There are micro and local climate effects that have to be controlled for. A good example of this you can see on the news tonight is that the urban center is often warmer by a few degrees than surrounding rural areas due to the urban heat island effect. weather stations built 50 years ago often find themselves in very different situations now than when they were first built. Temperatures have to be adjusted downward to compensate.

Also and more importantly, historically temperature readings were taken in the afternoon whereas now they are taken in the morning. This creates a cooling bias that is also compensated for.

There are also independent and redundant temperature monitoring systems that reflect the same findings, such as satellites.

This topic is well-documented and accessible from NOAA, in large part to the absurd criticism it has received: Monitoring Global and U.S. Temperatures at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center | Monitoring References | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
 
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#4,814
#4,814
TL/DR. Raw temp data is the temperature. No need to adjust it. There are weather stations that have been there since the 1880s. Why adjust 130 year+ weather station data? Why adjust old data?
 
#4,815
#4,815
VolsNSkinsFan said:
TL/DR. Raw temp data is the temperature. No need to adjust it. There are weather stations that have been there since the 1880s. Why adjust 130 year+ weather station data? Why adjust old data?
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Because we measure it a different time of day and because it is artificially warmer in many sites so we have to adjust it down.

Plus satellites aren't adjusted and confirm.
 
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#4,816
#4,816
From my link, here is the adjusted vs raw global temperature data:

First adjusted
image003.jpg

Second raw
image004.jpg


Please note that the raw data, adjusted data, and adjustment procedure are all accessible on the web and have links on that page so you can confirm all of this.
 
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#4,817
#4,817
Mtntrout said:
Because we measure it a different time of day and because it is artificially warmer in many sites so we have to adjust it down.

Plus satellites aren't adjusted and confirm.
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So, give us the raw data. Adjust it down? Okay by how much, who makes that call? Some Bureaucrat? How do we know the adjustment is spot on? What if it's not? We had satellites in 1880?
 
#4,818
#4,818
Mtntrout said:
If you measured the temperature in the middle of your lawn and also in the middle of your driveway, would the thermometer read the same? How about on the east side of your house and the west side of your house?

No, they wouldn't. There are micro and local climate effects that have to be controlled for. A good example of this you can see on the news tonight is that the urban center is often warmer by a few degrees than surrounding rural areas due to the urban heat island effect. weather stations built 50 years ago often find themselves in very different situations now than when they were first built. Temperatures have to be adjusted downward to compensate.

Also and more importantly, historically temperature readings were taken in the afternoon whereas now they are taken in the morning. This creates a cooling bias that is also compensated for.

There are also independent and redundant temperature monitoring systems that reflect the same findings, such as satellites.

This topic is well-documented and accessible from NOAA, in large part to the absurd criticism it has received: Monitoring Global and U.S. Temperatures at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center | Monitoring References | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
Click to expand...


Why not just use air temps? Wouldn't it be more consistent? As compared to my lawn or driveway....
 
#4,819
#4,819
cfsr_t2m_2005.png


Your chart ends in 2009. Here is 2005-2015 Global surface temp showing no real warming. Nobody is disputing that it's gotten warmer since 1880. Since we have been pumping CO2 at record amounts the past decade, wouldn't it be getting warmer? Data doesn't show that
 
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#4,820
#4,820
@BMonahanWSB: Quiet start to severe weather season nationally... really, all year long so far. None so far in March... last time that happened 1969.
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With the earth heating up, shouldn't we be having more thunderstorms and tornados?
 
#4,821
#4,821
VolsNSkinsFan said:
So, give us the raw data. Adjust it down? Okay by how much, who makes that call? Some Bureaucrat? How do we know the adjustment is spot on? What if it's not? We had satellites in 1880?
Click to expand...

I already linked everything you just asked for. The a link to the raw data is there. A link to the adjustment is there. This is all done with information in the public domain, it isn't secret.
 
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#4,822
#4,822
Obsessed said:
Why not just use air temps? Wouldn't it be more consistent? As compared to my lawn or driveway....
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... Go hold an air thermometer in your driveway. Have a buddy hold one in your yard. They'll give you two different temperatures because one has more heat radiating off of the surface and the other has more water present coming off the grass, evaporating and absorbing latent heat.

You wouldn't think the temperature was the same in the sun as in the shade, to a lesser extent there are effects on temperature on a small scale everywhere.



EVEN THEN- let's say you still think this is all bull****. I just showed you the net difference is .02 degrees C. It doesn't change the trend or situation.
 
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#4,823
#4,823
VolsNSkinsFan said:
cfsr_t2m_2005.png


Your chart ends in 2009. Here is 2005-2015 Global surface temp showing no real warming. Nobody is disputing that it's gotten warmer since 1880. Since we have been pumping CO2 at record amounts the past decade, wouldn't it be getting warmer? Data doesn't show that
Click to expand...

can't see the image you link, says access forbidden.

1) 10 years isn't climate, that is why one uses back from 1880, or 1950, etc. Generally 30 years is considered the bare minimum for measuring climate.

2)No one claimed CO2 was a thermostat, and while humans tend to think of all things being linear, they're often not

3) it has gotten warmer anyway, so I don't know what your graph is based on but it isn't global temperature and I can't see it to hazard a guess as to what it is.

Given that it is only March of 2015, I don't see how you can have a chart for this year. Add to that 2014 being perhaps the warmest year ever, it seems incredibly unlikely there is a no warming in your chart. I'll have to wait and see if you can find another link I can view.
 
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#4,825
#4,825
Mtntrout said:
... Go hold an air thermometer in your driveway. Have a buddy hold one in your yard. They'll give you two different temperatures because one has more heat radiating off of the surface and the other has more water present coming off the grass, evaporating and absorbing latent heat.

You wouldn't think the temperature was the same in the sun as in the shade, to a lesser extent there are effects on temperature on a small scale everywhere.



EVEN THEN- let's say you still think this is all bull****. I just showed you the net difference is .02 degrees C. It doesn't change the trend or situation.
Click to expand...



Hmmmm. I'll let the federal inspectors we deal with daily that their air temp numbers are trash.
 
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