Odds after this weekend?

#51
#51
Bozo said:
What are our odds after this weekend?

#16 Vandy won (needed them to win for us winning to mean anything)
#7 BYU lost
#14 UVA lost
#15 Louisville lost
#20 Iowa lost
#22 Missouri lost
#23 Washington lost

Need Navy or Pitt to beat ND? Need Alabama to beat OU? How high do we rise in the off week?
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Gotta have complete chaos. Talking Oklahoma and Texas going 8-4, Notre Dame losing to Pitt, USC slipping up somewhere, Utah slipping up to most likely Baylor, and either BYU or Texas Tech just imploding. If vandy is 9-2 and we're 8-3 when they come to Neyland and we win it who knows how all of that is sorted out. But hey, let's have some fun with itšŸ˜‚
 
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#53
#53
If we come in at 20 this week, which I think we have a good chance of with both Virginia and Louisville losing at home to subpar teams, we would likely need to climb 9-10 more spots to get in depending on whether the ACC champ would be ahead of us in the final poll. The most important challenge is to win out. If that happens, there is a chance it could get interesting. If we are #20 in this weekā€™s rankings, here are the teams likely to be in spots 9-19 in some order:
Notre Dame
Texas
Oklahoma
BYU
Utah
Vandy
Georgia tech
Miami
USC
Michigan
Pittsburgh

Our cleanest path would likely be:
Notre dame loses at pitt
Texas loses to Georgia and A&M
Oklahoma loses to bama and either mizzou or LSU
BYU loses to either TCU or at Cincinnati
Utah loses either at Baylor, home to Kansas state or at Kansas
Vandy loses to us
Georgia tech loses to Georgia
Miami loses at Pitt
USC loses to Oregon
Michigan loses to Ohio State
Pitt loses to Georgia Tech
If all those things happen, we could be ranked as high as 9 in the last playoff rankings prior to conference championship games. Those games could potentially help our standing as well. It is feasible that we could get there but we would need to take care of our own business and have at least nearly all of those things to happen.
 
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#54
#54
deatojl said:
If we come in at 20 this week, which I think we have a good chance of with both Virginia and Louisville losing at home to subpar teams, we would likely need to climb 9-10 more spots to get in depending on whether the ACC champ would be ahead of us in the final poll. The most important challenge is to win out. If that happens, there is a chance it could get interesting. If we are #20 in this weekā€™s rankings, here are the teams likely to be in spots 9-19 in some order:
Notre Dame
Texas
Oklahoma
BYU
Utah
Vandy
Georgia tech
Miami
USC
Michigan
Pittsburgh

Our cleanest path would likely be:
Notre dame loses at pitt
Texas loses to Georgia and A&M
Oklahoma loses to bama and either mizzou or LSU
BYU loses to either TCU or at Cincinnati
Utah loses either at Baylor, home to Kansas state or at Kansas
Vandy loses to us
Georgia tech loses to Georgia
Miami loses at Pitt
USC loses to Oregon
Michigan loses to Ohio State
Pitt loses to Georgia Tech
If all those things happen, we could be ranked as high as 9 in the last playoff rankings prior to conference championship games. Those games could potentially help our standing as well. It is feasible that we could get there but we would need to take care of our own business and have at least nearly all of those things to happen.
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^ Gets it.

This is football. Anything can happen. Other than a couple of miracles (PSU, Navy) this weekend could not have gone better for our chances. Will there be enough carnage remaining? Unlikely, but increased likelihood from two days ago.

Last ESPN metric I saw said 3.6% after OU. I say we gained about 5% today but I havenā€™t looked for the official numbers.
 
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#55
#55
allvols4life said:
ND and Indiana are severely overrated... regardless of our position, they should not be ranked as high as the are... that is all
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They might be overrated and we will see in the playoffs, but they deserve their ranking, they havenā€™t lost a game.
 
#56
#56
Weā€™re not making the playoffs and thatā€™s fine. Enjoy the season and hopefully a bowl win that gets us to 10 wins on the year.

50% of our roster are freshman. The future is bright.
 
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#57
#57
We are a missed field goal, a pick 6, and a fumble 6 away from being an undefeated team and ranked inside the top 4. Instead, we are at the tail end of the rankings. If you can make every team ranked ahead of us lose at least twice over the next 3 weeks that would be awesome. Anything short of that, thereā€™s no chance.
 
#58
#58
Delmar said:
We have about as much chance as me waking up in the morning looking like Robert Redford and as rich as Bill Gates.
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More PDS(playoff delusion syndrome) it will get worse next week when we beat the brakes off NMS but more than likely will finally die at the swamp! Even though Florida is horrible this year they always seem to play their best game of the year against Tennessee. And I still remember the 90s when we could never beat Florida period! And letā€™s not forget Vandy they are finding a way to win and Tennessee will have their hands full and this year home games basically mean ditto. So face it people Tennessee just doesnā€™t have a good team this year and we are not playoff material. Sad but true the citrus bowl would be šŸ‘
 
#59
#59
Our odds are slim and none

Slim will be the referee in the Vandy game, soā€¦

Iā€™ll go with zero.
 
#60
#60
deatojl said:
If we come in at 20 this week, which I think we have a good chance of with both Virginia and Louisville losing at home to subpar teams, we would likely need to climb 9-10 more spots to get in depending on whether the ACC champ would be ahead of us in the final poll. The most important challenge is to win out. If that happens, there is a chance it could get interesting. If we are #20 in this weekā€™s rankings, here are the teams likely to be in spots 9-19 in some order:
Notre Dame
Texas
Oklahoma
BYU
Utah
Vandy
Georgia tech
Miami
USC
Michigan
Pittsburgh

Our cleanest path would likely be:
Notre dame loses at pitt
Texas loses to Georgia and A&M
Oklahoma loses to bama and either mizzou or LSU
BYU loses to either TCU or at Cincinnati
Utah loses either at Baylor, home to Kansas state or at Kansas
Vandy loses to us
Georgia tech loses to Georgia
Miami loses at Pitt
USC loses to Oregon
Michigan loses to Ohio State
Pitt loses to Georgia Tech
If all those things happen, we could be ranked as high as 9 in the last playoff rankings prior to conference championship games. Those games could potentially help our standing as well. It is feasible that we could get there but we would need to take care of our own business and have at least nearly all of those things to happen.
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Nailed it to a Power T!
 
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#61
#61
If we win out convincingly and a lot of crazy stuff happens we will be about where USC jr. was last year when they won out and still on outside with Bama
 
#62
#62
deatojl said:
If we come in at 20 this week, which I think we have a good chance of with both Virginia and Louisville losing at home to subpar teams, we would likely need to climb 9-10 more spots to get in depending on whether the ACC champ would be ahead of us in the final poll. The most important challenge is to win out. If that happens, there is a chance it could get interesting. If we are #20 in this weekā€™s rankings, here are the teams likely to be in spots 9-19 in some order:
Notre Dame
Texas
Oklahoma
BYU
Utah
Vandy
Georgia tech
Miami
USC
Michigan
Pittsburgh

Our cleanest path would likely be:
Notre dame loses at pitt
Texas loses to Georgia and A&M
Oklahoma loses to bama and either mizzou or LSU
BYU loses to either TCU or at Cincinnati
Utah loses either at Baylor, home to Kansas state or at Kansas
Vandy loses to us
Georgia tech loses to Georgia
Miami loses at Pitt
USC loses to Oregon
Michigan loses to Ohio State
Pitt loses to Georgia Tech
If all those things happen, we could be ranked as high as 9 in the last playoff rankings prior to conference championship games. Those games could potentially help our standing as well. It is feasible that we could get there but we would need to take care of our own business and have at least nearly all of those things to happen.
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Very good recap and a good weekend. Hope it plays out the way you've lined them up. I think Notre Dame needs to lose twice for any 3 loss team to jump them. ND has consistently been the highest ranked 2 loss team all year among other 2 loss teams and even with losing to Pitt next weekend the "committee" will likely see their way to keep them above other 3 loss teams.
 
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#63
#63
Let's see if the Vols have actually improved for the final stretch of the season. Winning out is doable but needs to be clutch performances by offense, defense and special teams. This is a young team with high upside when they figure out the effort level needed for the SEC top tier. A Florida bowl would be a nice achievement. Not sure if the team is mature enough for playoffs - we will know after the Vandy game. There is a ton of parity in college football which makes for excitement each week but stress on coaches - and yes on fans!
 
#64
#64
allvols4life said:
ND and Indiana are severely overrated... regardless of our position, they should not be ranked as high as the are... that is all
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IU is very balanced and well coached. I certainly don't think they're overrated. I wish Vols were balanced like that. I dont like ND either but I don't think Tenn could beat either this season.
 
#66
#66
Lekvolrrah said:
IU is very balanced and well coached. I certainly don't think they're overrated. I wish Vols were balanced like that. I dont like ND either but I don't think Tenn could beat either this season.
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Indiana hasnā€™t played a tough schedule but they also destroyed most teams theyā€™ve played. Who else would someone put up that high? I love that we wonā€™t have to guess how good they are, theyā€™ll get the chance to prove it.
 
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#68
#68
Lekvolrrah said:
IU is very balanced and well coached. I certainly don't think they're overrated. I wish Vols were balanced like that. I dont like ND either but I don't think Tenn could beat either this season.
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We will likely never see the word balanced again with coach H here. His coaching makes for a great, exciting offense, but a tired defense forced to play to many plays.

Balanced teams are generally the ones to win it. You have to have a at least good defense. I hope he starts to see that. In that sense of the equation, our offense very much is a ā€œgimmickā€.
 
#70
#70
terraceparkvol said:
Very good recap and a good weekend. Hope it plays out the way you've lined them up. I think Notre Dame needs to lose twice for any 3 loss team to jump them. ND has consistently been the highest ranked 2 loss team all year among other 2 loss teams and even with losing to Pitt next weekend the "committee" will likely see their way to keep them above other 3 loss teams.
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Notre Dame and Miami are the two biggest concerns IMO. Notre Dame for the reason you stated. Miami because they are the only ACC team I can see getting an at large bid. Due to conference standings, there is very very little chance they play in the ACCCG. Therefore, if they win out, they'll still be ahead of us and would give the ACC a second spot.
 
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#71
#71
The most important things that need to happen

Texas loses twice (Georgia/TAMU)
Notre Dame loses
Miami loses in the regular season one time
Michigan loses
Texas Tech loses in the regular season one time

Really needed BYU to win. 10-2 Utah or 11-2 Texas Tech/BYU is our biggest obstacle outside Notre Dame. If TTU or Utah are 10-3 compared to our 9-3ā€¦itā€™s gonna be close
 
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#73
#73
Some of you failed math class. Or forgot it. Or simply want to be negative for the fun of it. Butā€¦.

You can be mad we completely threw away two (three?) wins.
You can want Willie fired.
You can want the Banks fired.
You can want the players replaced.
You can want Hype replaced.
You can even want the Dark Mode unis burned.

But moan all you want, you cannot deny the mathematical reality that the Vols do, in fact, have a chance to be in the 2025 Playoffs.

The details of such ā€œchanceā€ are herein being discussed.

PS. I can assure you that such chance is greater than that I will even meet both Ali and Sidney in a lifetime.
 
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#74
#74
Lekvolrrah said:
IU is very balanced and well coached. I certainly don't think they're overrated. I wish Vols were balanced like that. I dont like ND either but I don't think Tenn could beat either this season.
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Iu has only played 2 teams with a pulse and barely beat Penn st. Last evening, well coached and balanced against bums is not too impressive. I wasn't comparing us to either, but any 2 loss SEC team should rank higher than a 2 loss from anywhere else and IU should not be #2 just because they are unbeaten against a super weak schedule and play in a weak conference. TN isn't gonna beat many till they correct some glaring issues.
 
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#75
#75
Orangeslide said:
They might be overrated and we will see in the playoffs, but they deserve their ranking, they havenā€™t lost a game.
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Wish strength of schedule really mattered to the pollsters... if it did they wouldn't be #2. I'm not saying they shouldn't be ranked, just not #2 with that weak a$$ schedule in addition to struggling with Penn st.
 
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