NIL $$$$.....a drop in the bucket??

#51
#51
INo need. I am very aware of the current situation. Only a few schools are doing that. They're trying to replace them with school sponsored NIL to tie contracts to the school. Incidentally, that's a violation of current NCAA rules.

If the House case settlement falls through, which is very possible, then the schools like Colorado that dropped their relationship with a private collective are stupid.

The Lucas Wisconsin situation isn't actually a private NIL issue. Wisconsin doesn't use private NIL. The Lucas situation involved university NIL, which is sketchy legally. It's not actually NIL. It's revenue sharing, which violates NCAA rules until at least July 1.

That issue is primarily a transfer portal issue. The NCAA admitted, in writing, that college athletes can disenroll at any time they wish, without entering the portal. They can then enroll in another school without penalty or NCAA interference. Lucas is suing Wisconsin for withholding his transcripts in retaliation for him leaving, based on an illegal contract that they made him sign.

That's basically extortion. It will be interesting to see if this adds a criminal case against the Wisky administration and AD in addition to the civil suit. Based on the legal climate, it s likely.
They were trying to get ahead of things on revenue sharing and bet on the settlement passing. Their timing was off. The settlement will pass. The big mistake they made was fighting when the kid left without a leg to stand on. Lets be honest no one knows what NIL looks like next year. But given where its going and whats out there revenue sharing is going to at least be in place for a few years. Honestly, revenue sharing is probably the lesser of evils because it distributes the money more evenly and creates more transparency. It does, however, create a haves and have not situation. All based on... yup again, market size.

Lets use realUT and Bama as examples. You have a kid who has offers to both schools. Both can offer him the same amount via revenue sharing.

Knoxville has no State income tax. A bigger market means more NIL opportunities outside of the school. Those marketing opportunities will exist even if UT is winning 7-8 games a year. Knoxville also has some amount of border appeal.

Tuscaloosa. State income tax means that money from the school is actually less (about 5% given the likely amounts involved). Smaller market means less NIL opportunities. Bama winning big covers up their small market to some extent for now. But they seem to be on a downward trajectory.

Speaking deeper on markets Bama is literally surrounded by teams of equal or bigger markets and has a lower population base. on all sides. UT does not share borders with any historically successful football programs except for Georgia and Bama. they also bleed over into VA, KY, NC and SC and pretty much own the state of TN. Bama is literally surrounded (Ole Miss, LSU, GA, TN, FL) and shares a state with Auburn. Virginia, NC and SC are all bigger markets than Bama and Kentucky is right behind Alabama. All of those markets don't really have a higher chance to bleed over to UT than say the folks from MS, LA, GA and FL are to Bama. Not to mention all of these are smaller markets than Bama also.

Name a business in Tuscaloosa bigger than the college itself? The university of Alabama is not just the biggest employer in Tuscaloosa its the third largest in the state. Dollywood which is tenth in East TN would be tied for second in Tuscaloosa wit the Mercedes factory..Full disclosure UT is the third biggest employer in east TN at almost 10k employees, nearly twice the size of the University of Alabama 7k. That's a lot of sponsors with deep pockets. Knoxville has multiple large companies in the area. Tuscaloosa outside of the Meredes-related business are all govt jobs. You work for the school system, the city, a hospital or Mercedes and its supporting businesses.

TLDR market size matters a lot. You can nuh-uh your way around it and ignore the obvious proof (check the top 25 this year compared to pre-NIL) but math is undefeated.
 
#52
#52
They were trying to get ahead of things on revenue sharing and bet on the settlement passing. Their timing was off. The settlement will pass. The big mistake they made was fighting when the kid left without a leg to stand on. Lets be honest no one knows what NIL looks like next year. But given where its going and whats out there revenue sharing is going to at least be in place for a few years. Honestly, revenue sharing is probably the lesser of evils because it distributes the money more evenly and creates more transparency. It does, however, create a haves and have not situation. All based on... yup again, market size.

Lets use realUT and Bama as examples. You have a kid who has offers to both schools. Both can offer him the same amount via revenue sharing.

Knoxville has no State income tax. A bigger market means more NIL opportunities outside of the school. Those marketing opportunities will exist even if UT is winning 7-8 games a year. Knoxville also has some amount of border appeal.

Tuscaloosa. State income tax means that money from the school is actually less (about 5% given the likely amounts involved). Smaller market means less NIL opportunities. Bama winning big covers up their small market to some extent for now. But they seem to be on a downward trajectory.

Speaking deeper on markets Bama is literally surrounded by teams of equal or bigger markets and has a lower population base. on all sides. UT does not share borders with any historically successful football programs except for Georgia and Bama. they also bleed over into VA, KY, NC and SC and pretty much own the state of TN. Bama is literally surrounded (Ole Miss, LSU, GA, TN, FL) and shares a state with Auburn. Virginia, NC and SC are all bigger markets than Bama and Kentucky is right behind Alabama. All of those markets don't really have a higher chance to bleed over to UT than say the folks from MS, LA, GA and FL are to Bama. Not to mention all of these are smaller markets than Bama also.

Name a business in Tuscaloosa bigger than the college itself? The university of Alabama is not just the biggest employer in Tuscaloosa its the third largest in the state. Dollywood which is tenth in East TN would be tied for second in Tuscaloosa wit the Mercedes factory..Full disclosure UT is the third biggest employer in east TN at almost 10k employees, nearly twice the size of the University of Alabama 7k. That's a lot of sponsors with deep pockets. Knoxville has multiple large companies in the area. Tuscaloosa outside of the Meredes-related business are all govt jobs. You work for the school system, the city, a hospital or Mercedes and its supporting businesses.

TLDR market size matters a lot. You can nuh-uh your way around it and ignore the obvious proof (check the top 25 this year compared to pre-NIL) but math is undefeated.

That's an incomplete thought.

You are essentially claiming a univariate determinant in a multivariate situation.

Again, there are other factors outside local markets. Conference tie ins. Conference TV revenue sharing. Bowl and playoff payouts. Regional and national TV game coverage. National recruiting services. National name recognition. (Think Arch Manning at Texas)
Rich boosters from outside the local area.
(Think NYC resident Larry Ellison an open Michigan booster).

Again...the House settlement and revenue sharing are not final and are subject to legal challenges even if it goes tgrough.

Revenue sharing won't affect private NIL. Deloitte had an internal memo leak that expressed doubt about legal challenges to the clearinghouse. The memo author expressed concern that the company may simply buying into the NCAA's legal problems as a scapegoat. That guy had a point.
 
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#53
#53
you might wanna check up on things. there are already schools disassociating themselves with their collectives. The whole Wisconsin vs the kid who want tied to transfer to Miami is tied into it.
I think you’ve misunderstood what is happening here. The only change with NIL related to the House settlement is that collectives and marketing agencies will have to prove that there is an actual service being performed for use of the name, image and likeness, rather than it being purely pay for play. The standard to do that is not going to be that high. If a kid shows up and signs autographs for an hour, there’s no cap on what that business can pay him or what the collective can pay him for showing up there.

The current NIL setup isn’t going away, it’s going to continue to be on top of whatever the revenue sharing number ends up being per athlete.
 
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#54
#54
I wonder when donor fatigue will set in. These are 18 year old kids who had a good high school run but may totally fade in D1 play. It happens all the time. The demand for NIL is a gaping black hole there can never be enough of. If I'm a millionaire donor, I'm gonna get tired of putting a lot of cash on the table for players that don't amount to anything. There are better places to put my money.
The NIL market is sent regulating.
 
#55
#55
I think you’ve misunderstood what is happening here. The only change with NIL related to the House settlement is that collectives and marketing agencies will have to prove that there is an actual service being performed for use of the name, image and likeness, rather than it being purely pay for play. The standard to do that is not going to be that high. If a kid shows up and signs autographs for an hour, there’s no cap on what that business can pay him or what the collective can pay him for showing up there.

The current NIL setup isn’t going away, it’s going to continue to be on top of whatever the revenue sharing number ends up being per athlete.
No, they won't have to prove anything. That's what the NCAA is trying but the NIL clause won't pass antitrust muster. It's already facing a host of legal challenges. Friend of the court briefs, plaintiffs in other federal lawsuits, and at least 17 states that have laws that prevent the NCAA from interfering in private NIL.

Again, internal folks at Deloitte are questioning their liability for participating as the Clearinghouse, because they are buying into the NCAA antitrust liability.

There's another angle that no one is discussing much, too. The 1887 Interstate Commerce Act makes it illegal for any third party to interfere with a business that crosses state lines. You know, like Spyre doing business with Nico to get him to Knoxville from out of state? Lots of people believe that the House settlement will magically make the NCAA's legal issues go away. It won't.

And...the Tennessee vs NCAA final decision is hanging out there. If the judge follows up in his injunction in his final ruling, bye bye House settlement.
 
#56
#56
its not an issue of market size, its an issue of revenue sharing

Yep, and with the players getting a bigger cut of that revenue, with no increase in revenue generated, the smaller schools and non revenue sports are going to suffer.

Until congress steps in to protect the so called amateur model, separates the pros where they have their own division and rely on their own TV MONEY apart from the remaining D1 and other divisions. They then become a separate semi pro league of 30 or so schools and the rest go down the old road with less money, but viable with soccer, golf and band schollies in tact.

Are mississipi state, Stanford, NC and Michigan state fans gonna watch their teams or the pros on Saturday. Who are the networks going to pay?

Wanna be pros while in school, be pros. Would they really be more successful than the minors or G League? Can’t leverage off the vast majority of the schools fans watching then what?

But the NCAA provided them their opportunity to get their fair market value and the chance to pay taxes on their schollie, now payroll deductible.

Kids get to pick which model they prefer.

What will the distribution of money for March madness less the pros be vs the pros tournament? Like I said, G League anyone, guess it would be N league.

First new law, pros can’t compete against amateurs in college games. Markets will take it from there.
 

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