Next 11 games

bleedingTNorange

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The second part I copied and pasted is directly from his profile on there.
Which obviously is outdated, as their own mocks don’t have him going 1st round in 2022 or 2023 lol. So like I said, using your own linked source, we have 1 guy projected to be drafted #28 and that’s a Top 5 roster according to you, lol.
 

InVOLuntary

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To this point we haven’t lost a single game we were underdogs in, so that take seems a little bit over reactionary. Our losses have come all away from home and all to Top 17 teams in KenPom, we only have 1 road game left on the schedule against a Top 35 KenPom team, and that’s Texas.

Not sure why you think programs would be tripping over themselves to take BHH, seems a bit like BVS…and Chandler got plenty of offers out of HS and chose Tennessee over Duke/Kentucky etc.
For me it's about trajectory. I think the team is regressing. They're worse than they were a week ago and they are worse than they were a week.before that, etc. I don't believe they're as good as they were when they beat NC. I think these trends are hard to stop. Can they turn it around? Sure. I don't have the confidence they will though.

As to BHH and Chandler, it's been rumored Chandler may not be taking to the hard coaching that Barnes utilizes. Is he not playing up to his rating because he was over rated? I'm sure other teams will be saying he's not being developed. I'm sure they're saying he does t have the supporting cast. BHH I think.is playing different than what he's used to. I don't think he's a bad to the basket player. I think other coaches might see his potential playing a different role. We'll see I guess.

This has nothing to do with BVS. This has to do with seeing this team progress as the season has worn on.

Like I said, I hope I'm dead wrong. To me this is similar to Florida/Mullen in football this year. Obviously, Barnes>>>>>>Mullen so let's see him earn his money.
 

bleedingTNorange

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For me it's about trajectory. I think the team is regressing. They're worse than they were a week ago and they are worse than they were a week.before that, etc. I don't believe they're as good as they were when they beat NC. I think these trends are hard to stop. Can they turn it around? Sure. I don't have the confidence they will though.
Not sure how you draw a trajectory off of it, we simply have played more games against tougher teams on the road than we did before? We played 3 games against Top 25 KenPom teams the first month and went 1-2, we’ve played 3 games against Top 25 teams the last 2 weeks are went 0-3…the difference being that we had some other winnable games around that first stretch and we won them, so it looked better. Our season trajectory via analytics hasn’t really changed much all season and reflects this. Simply put, we had a brutal 6 game stretch, 4 games against KenPom Top 20 teams, we went 3-3 in those games, that’s pretty much what was expected as laid out by the OP in this thread. If we can’t go out and beat the Vandy’s and other “easier” games then ok, but to this point we pretty much have played the season out from a W/L standpoint as expected.

As to BHH and Chandler, it's been rumored Chandler may not be taking to the hard coaching that Barnes utilizes.
That’s random crap thrown on a wall, Chandler himself has said he’s told Barnes to be even harder on him and not back off, it’s why he chose Tennessee.

Is he not playing up to his rating because he was over rated? I'm sure other teams will be saying he's not being developed. I'm sure they're saying he does t have the supporting cast. BHH I think.is playing different than what he's used to. I don't think he's a bad to the basket player. I think other coaches might see his potential playing a different role. We'll see I guess.

This has nothing to do with BVS. This has to do with seeing this team progress as the season has worn on.

Like I said, I hope I'm dead wrong. To me this is similar to Florida/Mullen in football this year. Obviously, Barnes>>>>>>Mullen so let's see him earn his money.
Like I’ve said, let’s see how it plays out, you take away Memphis game and projections were 20-10(12-6), that still is the case for the outlook as of today.
 

bleedingTNorange

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Sharing this from Grant Ramey & Will Warren, might be useful for those who like to run for the nearest cliff after a loss…

Bump this for perspective, it included the Memphis game which was projected as a win, so you remove a W and it looks like this.

Top 5: 7-3
Top 10: 6-4
Top 20: 5-5
Top 40: 4-6

Where it’s at…3-3 with 4 remaining.
Arizona W
@ Bama L
Ole Miss W
@ LSU L
South Carolina W
@ Kentucky L
@ Vandy
LSU
Florida
@ Texas


Going 2-2 over next 4 games is what a Top 20 team would’ve been expected to do, and that looks very plausible as an outcome, obviously 3-1 would feel better.
 

InVOLuntary

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Not sure how you draw a trajectory off of it, we simply have played more games against tougher teams on the road than we did before? We played 3 games against Top 25 KenPom teams the first month and went 1-2, we’ve played 3 games against Top 25 teams the last 2 weeks are went 0-3…the difference being that we had some other winnable games around that first stretch and we won them, so it looked better. Our season trajectory via analytics hasn’t really changed much all season and reflects this. Simply put, we had a brutal 6 game stretch, 4 games against KenPom Top 20 teams, we went 3-3 in those games, that’s pretty much what was expected as laid out by the OP in this thread. If we can’t go out and beat the Vandy’s and other “easier” games then ok, but to this point we pretty much have played the season out from a W/L standpoint as expected.


That’s random crap thrown on a wall, Chandler himself has said he’s told Barnes to be even harder on him and not back off, it’s why he chose Tennessee.



Like I’ve said, let’s see how it plays out, you take away Memphis game and projections were 20-10(12-6), that still is the case for the outlook as of today.
Ok, we'll see. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong but if I had to bet I'd lean toward my projection. And the reason has to do with not that we've lost against those teams, we've been totally outclassed. That's hard for me to overcome.
 

bleedingTNorange

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Ok, we'll see. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong but if I had to bet I'd lean toward my projection. And the reason has to do with not that we've lost against those teams, we've been totally outclassed. That's hard for me to overcome.
Weird things happen in college hoops, Bama got smashed by Missouri, yet most of our fans are drinking Nate Oats bath water still, definitely not throwing in the towel on Bama who is also 2-3 in SEC play.

Nobody knows and that’s my whole point, you think they’ll be lucky to get to 18 wins and make the NCAAT, I still think it’s a 20+ win team that’ll be playing for seeding…neither of us will know who is right for awhile, as I’ve said though, to this point the resume is still that of a team that’s Top 20. Now to stay there they’re gonna have to win some games like Vandy on Tuesday, and at least 1 of the games in Knoxville coming up, it’s why I’ve said the next 4 should clear the picture up a bit.

With that said, for that reason it’s probably a certainty we go 2-2…we’ll beat Vandy and Florida, lose to LSU & Texas…both losses will be to good teams so big picture we will still largely be on track, but folks will just further say we can’t beat any good teams and that this is a .500 team and the split of the board will just continue.
 

InVOLuntary

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Weird things happen in college hoops, Bama got smashed by Missouri, yet most of our fans are drinking Nate Oats bath water still, definitely not throwing in the towel on Bama who is also 2-3 in SEC play.

Nobody knows and that’s my whole point, you think they’ll be lucky to get to 18 wins and make the NCAAT, I still think it’s a 20+ win team that’ll be playing for seeding…neither of us will know who is right for awhile, as I’ve said though, to this point the resume is still that of a team that’s Top 20. Now to stay there they’re gonna have to win some games like Vandy on Tuesday, and at least 1 of the games in Knoxville coming up, it’s why I’ve said the next 4 should clear the picture up a bit.

With that said, for that reason it’s probably a certainty we go 2-2…we’ll beat Vandy and Florida, lose to LSU & Texas…both losses will be to good teams so big picture we will still largely be on track, but folks will just further say we can’t beat any good teams and that this is a .500 team and the split of the board will just continue.
I'm not saying wrong, I'm just a little less optimistic than you.
 

mtvols

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Not sure how you draw a trajectory off of it, we simply have played more games against tougher teams on the road than we did before? We played 3 games against Top 25 KenPom teams the first month and went 1-2, we’ve played 3 games against Top 25 teams the last 2 weeks are went 0-3…the difference being that we had some other winnable games around that first stretch and we won them, so it looked better. Our season trajectory via analytics hasn’t really changed much all season and reflects this. Simply put, we had a brutal 6 game stretch, 4 games against KenPom Top 20 teams, we went 3-3 in those games, that’s pretty much what was expected as laid out by the OP in this thread. If we can’t go out and beat the Vandy’s and other “easier” games then ok, but to this point we pretty much have played the season out from a W/L standpoint as expected.


That’s random crap thrown on a wall, Chandler himself has said he’s told Barnes to be even harder on him and not back off, it’s why he chose Tennessee.



Like I’ve said, let’s see how it plays out, you take away Memphis game and projections were 20-10(12-6), that still is the case for the outlook as of today.
BTO, I understand what you are saying that the W/L projection has gone as expected however something is just missing from this team. With our inconsistencies on offense, we can lose to anyone.

The KY and LSU games were not close and we were fortunate to win the Ole Miss game. It doesn’t seem like we have a leader. We struggle with the three point shot and there is no consistent post scoring.

I just see this team losing some games that they shouldn’t down the stretch. We likely we be on the bubble come tournament time and that shouldn’t be the expectation based on the talent.
 
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bleedingTNorange

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BTO, I understand what you are saying that the W/L projection has gone as expected however something is just missing from this team. With our inconsistencies on offense, we can lose to anyone.

The KY and LSU games were not close and we were fortunate to win the Ole Miss game. It doesn’t seem like we have a leader. We struggle with the three point shot and there is no consistent post scoring.

I just see this team losing some games that they shouldn’t down the stretch. We likely we be on the bubble come tournament time and that shouldn’t be the expectation based on the talent.
If that’s what happens I agree, to this point (half way through the season) though it hasn’t…I’m not just going to assume or go ahead and chalk up some L’s that we shouldn’t have.
 
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bleedingTNorange

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21-9 should be the goal imo, 20-10 and 22-8 are both on the table as well, but most projections have us tagged as 21-9 which would have us around the 4 seed line entering the SECT. Theoretically for conference rankings sake going 21-9(12-6) and losing to Texas would be better, almost certainly guarantees a Top 4 finish which means double bye in SECT. For resume sake going 21-9(11-7) and beating Texas on the road would probably be better assuming the extra SEC loss is a “good” one. We are currently 12-5(3-3), let’s get us at least 9 more wins!

Remaining slate:
LSU
Florida
@ Texas
Texas A&M
@ South Carolina
@ Mississippi State
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
@ Arkansas
@ Missouri
Auburn
@ Georgia
Arkansas
 
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21-9 should be the goal imo, 20-10 and 22-8 are both on the table as well, but most projections have us tagged as 21-9 which would have us around the 4 seed line entering the SECT. Theoretically for conference rankings sake going 21-9(12-6) and losing to Texas would be better, almost certainly guarantees a Top 4 finish which means double bye in SECT. For resume sake going 21-9(11-7) and beating Texas on the road would probably be better assuming the extra SEC loss is a “good” one. We are currently 12-5(3-3), let’s get us at least 9 more wins!

Remaining slate:
LSU
Florida
@ Texas
Texas A&M
@ South Carolina
@ Mississippi State
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
@ Arkansas
@ Missouri
Auburn
@ Georgia
Arkansas
I look at all those projections and see 21-9 with 11-7 as most likely, which means we're basically the same record as last year (because we didn't play as many overall games due to COVID last year). I'd say slightly better, but fairly close.

Let's just hope for better postseason success. I do think this team is better suited for postseason success, though.
 

TheMookieMonster

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That is certainly a favorable Home/Away SEC schedule the rest of the year.

Outside of Arkansas, you play mostly bottom feeders of the SEC on the road (USC, Missouri, Georgia), and then you have a bubble team in MSU. Not too bad. I think you HAVE to go 4-1 in that stretch. Losing to Arkansas in Bud Walton is nothing to shake your head at but there will be no excuse to lose to Missouri, Georgia, or South Carolina. Miss State will be a toss up, but we need to win that.

The home schedule......brutal. But, this gives us a chance to get some quality SEC wins. We really need to beat LSU and Kentucky at home.
 
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That is certainly a favorable Home/Away SEC schedule the rest of the year.

Outside of Arkansas, you play mostly bottom feeders of the SEC on the road (USC, Missouri, Georgia), and then you have a bubble team in MSU. Not too bad. I think you HAVE to go 4-1 in that stretch. Losing to Arkansas in Bud Walton is nothing to shake your head at but there will be no excuse to lose to Missouri, Georgia, or South Carolina. Miss State will be a toss up, but we need to win that.

The home schedule......brutal. But, this gives us a chance to get some quality SEC wins. We really need to beat LSU and Kentucky at home.
Missouri is so wildly inconsistent that they worry me.
 

TheMookieMonster

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Missouri is so wildly inconsistent that they worry me.
No game is an "easy" game in conference, especially on the road. But, even with their inconsistencies there really is no excuse to lose to Missouri this year. It's a game you have to win if you want to set yourself up for a run in March.
 

bleedingTNorange

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I look at all those projections and see 21-9 with 11-7 as most likely, which means we're basically the same record as last year (because we didn't play as many overall games due to COVID last year). I'd say slightly better, but fairly close.

Let's just hope for better postseason success. I do think this team is better suited for postseason success, though.
Yea, got a 5 seed last year and went 10-7 in league play…so 4/5 seed and 11-7 would be pretty comparable to last year. We started 10-1 last year then 8-7 after that before NCAAT, that kind of finish left a pretty bad taste and then the NCAAT beat down was kinda the icing on that cake.

This year we started out 9-2, and if we get to 21-9 it’ll mean a 12-7 close, which would definitely have a better feel to it than 8-7. And like you said hopefully a different NCAAT result.
 

mr.checkerboards

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21-9 should be the goal imo, 20-10 and 22-8 are both on the table as well, but most projections have us tagged as 21-9 which would have us around the 4 seed line entering the SECT. Theoretically for conference rankings sake going 21-9(12-6) and losing to Texas would be better, almost certainly guarantees a Top 4 finish which means double bye in SECT. For resume sake going 21-9(11-7) and beating Texas on the road would probably be better assuming the extra SEC loss is a “good” one. We are currently 12-5(3-3), let’s get us at least 9 more wins!

Remaining slate:
LSU
Florida
@ Texas
Texas A&M
@ South Carolina
@ Mississippi State
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
@ Arkansas
@ Missouri
Auburn
@ Georgia
Arkansas
Win the remaining at home and that's 7
@GA, @So Car, @MSST should be wins.
@Arkansas @Missouri are toss ups.
With the caveat that this team plays well and gels going forward. If they continue to spin their wheels then it's a toss up.
 

bleedingTNorange

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Win the remaining at home and that's 7.
@UGA, @USC @MSST should be wins.
@Ark @Mizzou are toss ups.
Cavat of if this team plays well and gels. If they continue to spin their wheels then who knows.
I doubt we run the table at home, that would be wildly impressive…definitely need to protect homecourt but even 5-2 would be a really good result against that slate.

Never want to chalk up a road win in conference, but for the sake of projections I would say…

Win: Florida, A&M, @SC, Vandy, @Mizz, @UGA, Ark

Tossup: LSU, @TX, @MSST, UK, @Ark, Aub
 

bleedingTNorange

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I doubt we run the table at home, that would be wildly impressive…definitely need to protect homecourt but even 5-2 would be a really good result against that slate.

Never want to chalk up a road win in conference, but for the sake of projections I would say…

Win: Florida, A&M, @SC, Vandy, @Mizz, @UGA, Ark

Tossup: LSU, @TX, @MSST, UK, @Ark, Aub
And now that I look at barrtorvik that’s actually how analytics break it down to…those first 7 I have as wins he gives us 75% chance or better to win each of those games, the other 6 he has between 33%-54% chance of winning.
 

TheMookieMonster

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I mean Alabama did get beat down at Missouri 🤷🏻‍♂️
Yeah, and I'm sure Alabama basketball fans would be the first to admit that's a horrible loss. I didn't say it would be an easy win, but I still don't believe losing to Missouri would be an acceptable loss for this roster with this talent. You shouldn't lose to any of the bottom 4 teams in the SEC.
 

mr.checkerboards

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I doubt we run the table at home, that would be wildly impressive…definitely need to protect homecourt but even 5-2 would be a really good result against that slate.

Never want to chalk up a road win in conference, but for the sake of projections I would say…

Win: Florida, A&M, @SC, Vandy, @Mizz, @UGA, Ark

Tossup: LSU, @TX, @MSST, UK, @Ark, Aub
Correct you can't expect to, but I'm taking the baseball adage and applying it to basketball.
Win all your home games and go .500 on the road.
Imo. UK will be a win at home, I think it was a weird day in Lexington the other day. TN is more talented than MSST unless they just play awful that should be a win. LSU at home should be nice revenge.
Auburn and both Arky games worry me. Idk what to think about the Hogs and Auburn is a terrible matchup.
 

walkenvol

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That is certainly a favorable Home/Away SEC schedule the rest of the year.

Outside of Arkansas, you play mostly bottom feeders of the SEC on the road (USC, Missouri, Georgia), and then you have a bubble team in MSU. Not too bad. I think you HAVE to go 4-1 in that stretch. Losing to Arkansas in Bud Walton is nothing to shake your head at but there will be no excuse to lose to Missouri, Georgia, or South Carolina. Miss State will be a toss up, but we need to win that.

The home schedule......brutal. But, this gives us a chance to get some quality SEC wins. We really need to beat LSU and Kentucky at home.
There are no guaranteed wins in conference road games. Really there’s no guaranteed wins in conference home games either. The SEC is going to be a rock fight for everyone all year. Gotta show up ready to compete every game and hope the opponent doesn’t have a shooting night like at Ky.
 
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