Next 11 games

#29

mr.checkerboards

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#29
So since Memphis is cancelled it becomes a 10 game run.
We are 2-2 so far, AZ and Ole Ms, wins LSU and Bama losses.
Should be wins left in the run: SCAR, Vandy Florida
Likely losses: @UK, @TX
Toss ups: LSU at home
I will give us a win over Memphis because F Penny.
So 7-4 best case scenario if we beat LSU
6-5 with a loss.
Let's be positive and say 7-4.
That would put us 4-3 in conference up to that point.
Lets say down the stretch the Vols lose 2 more conference games. Barnes gets his usual whooping from Papa Bruce and we drop one more random game on the road.
That would put us at 13-5 and a 4 seed in Nashville based on the last full season of basketball played in 2019.
That would be about a 6 seed overall in the AA. Thats just not good enough with this roster.
 
#30

bleedingTNorange

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#30
So since Memphis is cancelled it becomes a 10 game run.
We are 2-2 so far, AZ and Ole Ms, wins LSU and Bama losses.
Should be wins left in the run: SCAR, Vandy Florida
Likely losses: @UK, @TX
Toss ups: LSU at home
I will give us a win over Memphis because F Penny.
So 7-4 best case scenario if we beat LSU
6-5 with a loss.
Let's be positive and say 7-4.
That would put us 4-3 in conference up to that point.
Lets say down the stretch the Vols lose 2 more conference games. Barnes gets his usual whooping from Papa Bruce and we drop one more random game on the road.
That would put us at 13-5 and a 4 seed in Nashville based on the last full season of basketball played in 2019.
That would be about a 6 seed overall in the AA. Thats just not good enough with this roster.
22-8(13-5) with that SOS isn’t getting a 6 seed in the NCAAT, also 13-5 in SEC is much closer to being a 2 seed last 5 years than a 4 seed in Nashville.
 
#31

mr.checkerboards

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#31
22-8(13-5) with that SOS isn’t getting a 6 seed in the NCAAT, also 13-5 in SEC is much closer to being a 2 seed last 5 years than a 4 seed in Nashville.
I was basing it off 2019 since I couldnt remeber all of 2020. I know tournaments got PPD in March, but I also remember the COVID talk starting in Jan, Feb I couldnt remeber how much it affected that season.
My basis of a 6 is off Lunardi's current projections. Last I had seen he had dropped us off the 4 line. His projections usually have teams a line or two higher than the committee does.
 
#33

bleedingTNorange

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#33
I was basing it off 2019 since I couldnt remeber all of 2020. I know tournaments got PPD in March, but I also remember the COVID talk starting in Jan, Feb I couldnt remeber how much it affected that season.
My basis of a 6 is off Lunardi's current projections. Last I had seen he had dropped us off the 4 line. His projections usually have teams a line or two higher than the committee does.
13-5 would be…
2021: 2
2020: 2
2019: 4
2018: 1
2017: 3

So average 2.4 finish.

If every team is a line or 2 higher where are the rest of the teams located? That doesn’t even make sense.

22-9(13-5) with our NET ranking would have us as 4 seed or better.
 
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#34

bleedingTNorange

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#34
A much stronger SEC pretty much suggests the 6 and 4 projection. There are at least 4 teams that COULD finish ahead of us.
I think the league will beat itself up…Florida with 2 losses already, Arkansas with 3, those teams will both beat some teams at the top before it’s said and done. 13-5 would be a really solid finish in this league.
 
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#39

mr.checkerboards

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#39
Not sure what that has to do with anything? Was saying 13-5 doesn’t typically get you 4th, and even if it did and put us at 22-9(13-5) it definitely wouldn’t be a 6 seed.
Wasnt sure if you were talking AA or SEC.
That would be the rankings i think the SEC finishes.
If TN finishes at 13-5 and those 4 teams finish with a better record they arent jamming all those SEC teams on high seeds.
 
#40

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#40
Wasnt sure if you were talking AA or SEC.
That would be the rankings i think the SEC finishes.
If TN finishes at 13-5 and those 4 teams finish with a better record they arent jamming all those SEC teams on high seeds.
Big 10 literally had 5 teams on Top 4 seed lines just last year, they don’t limit it by conference.
 
#43

bleedingTNorange

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#43
We are currently 10-4(1-2), let’s say goal is 21-9(12-6/11-7) depending on Texas outcome…so have 16 games left and looking to go 11-5 or better…

Next 4: 2-2
South Carolina
@kentucky
@Vandy
LSU

Next 4: 3-1
Florida
@Texas
Texas A&M
@South Carolina

Next 4: 3-1
@Mississippi State
Vandy
Kentucky
@Arkansas

Next 4: 3-1
@Misssouri
Auburn
@Georgia
Arkansas
 
#44

Go47

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#44
We are currently 10-4(1-2), let’s say goal is 21-9(12-6/11-7) depending on Texas outcome…so have 16 games left and looking to go 11-5 or better…

Next 4: 2-2
South Carolina
@kentucky
@Vandy
LSU

Next 4: 3-1
Florida
@Texas
Texas A&M
@South Carolina

Next 4: 3-1
@Mississippi State
Vandy
Kentucky
@Arkansas

Next 4: 3-1
@Misssouri
Auburn
@Georgia
Arkansas
 
#46
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#46
I don’t know what we did to the SEC to get the start to the SEC schedule that we got. @Alabama, @lsu @kentucky for 3 of the first 5 games. And 4 of the first 6 on the road.
I’d rather lose them early and take some positive momentum into March. I’ll bet that the players are handling the tough loses far better than some of the drama queens that post on VN.
 
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#50

bleedingTNorange

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#50
We are behind all 4 of those teams. Which puts us at a 5 or 6. Lunardi is usually a line or two higher on teams than the committee is.
As of today yes, if we go 13-5 as you mentioned we will move up, we are 1-2 in conference right now.

Again, this theory makes no sense, if he’s a line or two higher on teams across the board then who gets those spots? They appear out of thin air?
 

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