'20 MS OT Dylan Spencer

LouderVol

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Think he was saying it is merely a prerequisite to being elite, not a guarantee.
Oregon and Wisconsin probably average pretty badly for the elite.

I guess it depends on what you consider good.

And there is also a HUGE admitted confirmation bias when it comes to the recruiting sites. They have admitted they give higher grades to kids going to big time programs. So it makes sense that their rankings are higher as the services adjust the players for those schools. Meaning they also get some confirmation bias with kids not going to those schools.

They are playing with house money.
 

Vol_from_86

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Recruiting rankings matter. It's top 10 classes or you're not going to be elite.

Any more questions?
The recruiting rankings are skewed toward successful programs to help these services stay in business.... everyone knows that. You think the guys who do their "evaluations" are of the same mind as the evaporators at Alabama and Ohio State? Think again.
 
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VolnJC

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The recruiting rankings are skewed toward successful programs to help these services stay in business.... everyone knows that. You think the guys who do their "evaluations" are of the same mind as the evaporators at Alabama and Ohio State? Think again.
Not so much anymore but late deciders also used to get bumps because it's easier to sell premium content for tidbits about 4 and 5 stars
 

sjt18

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6 guys covering an entire decade though. Out of tens of thousands.

Fwiw, the odds for a 2* to get into the NFL has been shown to be about 1%...

That said he's effectively a 3* at that rating...his odds should be slightly higher.
The position most likely not to be correctly rated by the recruiting sites is OL.

The 2nd OL taken in last year's draft was a 3* guy named Chris Lindstrom. His only two offers were Boston College and ODU. He was 6'5", 240 when he signed.

Bradbury was the 3rd OL taken in the '19 draft. 247 gave him 2*. His composite was 3*.

The third pick in the draft was Tytus Howard... not even rated by 247 so a zero star player.

Trey Pipkins the 17th OL taken in the draft at 91st was unrated and drafted out of Sioux Falls U. No kidding.

Phil Haynes was a 2* taken in the 4th round.


That's at least two of the top 10 OL's in the draft that were 2* or lower and several more in the draft. Your claim of a 1% chance... is either meaningless or false.
 
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LouderVol

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The position most likely not to be correctly rated by the recruiting sites is OL.

The 2nd OL taken in last year's draft was a 3* guy named Chris Lindstrom. His only two offers were Boston College and ODU. He was 6'5", 240 when he signed.

Bradbury was the 3rd OL taken in the '19 draft. 247 gave him 2*. His composite was 3*.

The third pick in the draft was Tytus Howard... not even rated by 247 so a zero star player.

Trey Pipkins the 17th OL taken in the draft at 91st was unrated and drafted out of Sioux Falls U. No kidding.

Phil Haynes was a 2* taken in the 4th round.


That's at least two of the top 10 OL's in the draft that were 2* or lower and several more in the draft. Your claim of a 1% chance... is either meaningless or false.
The other thing issue is similar to the bias recruiting services have. A 2* that a P5 takes is probably better than other 2* a G5 might take. So by the time you get to the draft that 2* at P5 isnt really a 2*. Even if the recruiting services dont adjust or adjust much the actual quality of a player is going to be pretty far off their implied quality.
 

VolsSince78

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Recruiting rankings matter. It's top 10 classes or you're not going to be elite.

Any more questions?
Yeah, was Clemson elite 3 years ago when they beat Bama to win the NC? If so, how were they elite when their players signed in recruiting classes that were ranked #14 on average. Their Juniors and Seniors on that team all signed in a recruiting class ranked 15th or lower.
 
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Devo182

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Yeah, was Clemson elite 3 years ago when they beat Bama to win the NC? If so, how were they elite when their players signed in recruiting classes that were ranked #14 on average. Their Juniors and Seniors on that team all signed in a recruiting class ranked 15th or lower.
Clemson was #9 in the Team Talent Composite in 2016. So...yes? Don't let their small classes fool you. High averages. They passsed the BCR each time. I'm not even sure who the last national champ is to not be a part of the BCR club.

Either you take more blue chippers as non-blue chippers or...good luck.
 
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scvolfan7

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Clemson was #9 in the Team Talent Composite in 2016. So...yes? Don't let their small classes fool you. High averages. They passsed the BCR each time. I'm not even sure who the last national champ is to not be a part of the BCR club.

Either you take more blue chippers as non-blue chippers or...good luck.
Took Dabo a few years to build up to that point
 

VolsSince78

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Clemson was #9 in the Team Talent Composite in 2016. So...yes? Don't let their small classes fool you. High averages. They passsed the BCR each time. I'm not even sure who the last national champ is to not be a part of the BCR club.

Either you take more blue chippers as non-blue chippers or...good luck.
I was responding to the polar comment that you either have top ten recruiting classes or you're not elite. No mention of "Team Talent Composite" or "BCR" in the comment that drew my response.

But, your comment kinda leads to another area. Recruiting rankings are based on arbitrary math formulas. Those formulas may or may not be the best indicator of which team grabbed the best overall talent, and they don't reflect how teams did in meeting their specific needs.
 

Devo182

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I was responding to the polar comment that you either have top ten recruiting classes or you're not elite. No mention of "Team Talent Composite" or "BCR" in the comment that drew my response.

But, your comment kinda leads to another area. Recruiting rankings are based on arbitrary math formulas. Those formulas may or may not be the best indicator of which team grabbed the best overall talent, and they don't reflect how teams did in meeting their specific needs.
I don't disagree with your 2nd paragraph, but also think it is sort of splitting hairs.

The fact is recent champions, and playoff teams, are almost always in the BCR club. Cat was saying this in a general sense. Either recruit well or get left out. Anomalies and exceptions to the rule are just that.
 
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“His parents both made the trip with him. Both were impressed with the Vol coaching staff and what they saw this weekend. Both parents will go to Kansas and Missouri with Dylan before making a final decision.

They said because all of this is happening fast, they want to make sure he's making a thorough decision and not missing anything.

Dylan is a really nice kid and physically looked good. The 6-4, 300 pound numbers in his profile are accurate”

- Hubbs


“Spencer will take some visits to compare so that gives Tennessee some time to see where they are with their remaining targets. Vols like him and I can see a scenario with him involved.”

- Price
 

UTMVol76

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What was his camp history? This is a scenario where I can see someone having measurables that are overlooked because of lack of camping and being from a low profile area of the country causing a low recruitment ranking.
 

lilesrt

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“His parents both made the trip with him. Both were impressed with the Vol coaching staff and what they saw this weekend. Both parents will go to Kansas and Missouri with Dylan before making a final decision.

They said because all of this is happening fast, they want to make sure he's making a thorough decision and not missing anything.

Dylan is a really nice kid and physically looked good. The 6-4, 300 pound numbers in his profile are accurate”

- Hubbs


“Spencer will take some visits to compare so that gives Tennessee some time to see where they are with their remaining targets. Vols like him and I can see a scenario with him involved.”

- Price
Seems like a good kid with much upside. I really like the approach of this coaching staff. 👍
 
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