This is super simple. Is it a "must win"? No, you've got two great shots to get to 6-6. But in the sense of trying to be good at football and have positive momentum to sell to recruits and fans? Yes, absolutely. Tennessee needs to beat one good team. That will make their recruiting jobs that much easier. They lost a winnable one with Pitt, and whiffed again on Ole Miss. They need to show they can get it done.
I mean, let's break this down proper -
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Win at Kentucky, win gimme games, win bowl game - 8-5 and a lot of positive buzz. "Eight wins" is like getting a B- on a report card. It's a .600 record, you beat at least one good team, and sounds worlds better than 7 or 6.
Win at Kentucky, win gimme games, lose bowl game - 7-6 and some minor buzz. You did lose at the end, but you finished with a better than .500 record. You beat one good team on the road. That's not bad for the year after Captain Blackmail got the boot.
Lose at Kentucky, win gimme games, win bowl game - 7-6 and some minor buzz. You won at the end, which is good, but you didn't beat any real teams. Still, better than .500. Still not bad.
Lose at Kentucky, win gimme games, lose bowl game - 6-7 and not a lot to say. You beat bad teams, and lost to good teams. Not great. Not terrible.
Lose at Kentucky, beat Georgia - wait what is this doing here? Who put this here? Go on, get out of here. SHOO!
Lose at Kentucky, lose one of the gimme games - womp womp.
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So there you go. Technically no. But totally yes.