If we go 8-4?

#151
#151
It all comes down to the bowl game in my opinion. There is a big difference in perception both nationally and among recruits between 8-5 and 9-4. Right or wrong, a one game improvement when ESPN and others are expecting more will be a tough sell to recruits.
 
#153
#153
Now the guys with the low expectations will at some point charge me with being a "negavol" for thinking that the Vols are VERY capable of winning more than 8 games this fall with some of them being both major upsets AND major reversals of losing streaks.

But who is really "negative"? The one who believes they're capable if the coaching and development are as good as it needs to be or those who convince themselves that 8 wins would be an overachievement? I'm basically saying the talent is good enough if the coaching is... and that somehow in the minds of some here means I'm "negative" about the team.
 
#154
#154
I'll never be upset with a winning season ever again. My first game was in '65. I've seen the highs and lows. Take each game and enjoy it. Take each season and enjoy it.
 
#155
#155
sjt18 said:
A "C" is technically "success". It isn't "failure". But it doesn't demonstrate greatness or excellence. If the goal is to get back to a second tier status then a "C" coach is fine. If the goal is championships then you need your coach to be an "A" coach or at least a very strong "B" who can recruit.
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This. An "A" should be reserved for 10 win or more regular season. "B" for 9 wins. "C" is average, so that would cover meeting the expectation of 8 wins. "D" should be for breaking even with last year, no improvement. "F" if we take a step back.
 
#156
#156
sjt18 said:
Now the guys with the low expectations will at some point charge me with being a "negavol" for thinking that the Vols are VERY capable of winning more than 8 games this fall with some of them being both major upsets AND major reversals of losing streaks.

But who is really "negative"? The one who believes they're capable if the coaching and development are as good as it needs to be or those who convince themselves that 8 wins would be an overachievement? I'm basically saying the talent is good enough if the coaching is... and that somehow in the minds of some here means I'm "negative" about the team.
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In the past, I've thought your expectations were a little too much too soon, but it's hard to argue that starting in year 3. The rubber definitely has to start meeting the road. Time to pick up a win or two against 8+ win teams.

8 wins could be fine, but it depends on who the losses are to and how. As we all saw in Fulmer's last years, it's as much who's beating you that tells the story.
 
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#157
#157
MrVolton said:
This. An "A" should be reserved for 10 win or more regular season. "B" for 9 wins. "C" is average, so that would cover meeting the expectation of 8 wins. "D" should be for breaking even with last year, no improvement. "F" if we take a step back.
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Agree totally.
 
#158
#158
8-4? From a win-loss perspective it gives the appearance of improvement.

Ask yourself where does beating (and ending streaks by) FL, GA, and Mizzou fit into 8-4? And is losing to a team(s) we are favored to beat acceptable?
 
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#159
#159
For the first time in many years I'm not cringing over any game on the schedule....doesn't mean I think our guys can win 'em all, but I do think they can be competitive in each and every one...and that is an opportunity to win. I won't over-hype or bemoan at this point, but at face value I agree w/ the apparent consensus of 8 wins or better in 2015....then another depending on bowl venue. It is a game, so with a couple of breaks in our favor here and there - it could turn out to be a special year.

I'm interested in how spring practice goes and then the summer period leading up to the first game. Various folks posted some great info during these and I enjoyed reading and setting my own expectations heading into the season.
 
#160
#160
zero-sum said:
8-4? From a win-loss perspective it gives the appearance of improvement.

Ask yourself where does beating (and ending streaks by) FL, GA, and Mizzou fit into 8-4? And is losing to a team(s) we are favored to beat acceptable?
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8-4 is very good improvement. I think UT beats UGA in Knoxville this season and that's definate improvement
 
#162
#162
GAVol said:
8 wins could be fine, but it depends on who the losses are to and how. As we all saw in Fulmer's last years, it's as much who's beating you that tells the story.
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Agreed and also relating back to Fulmer it is important how competitive you are. That last "great" season that many cling to as a reason to give him more time included two embarrassing blowouts to UF and Bama. UF beat UT worse than they did Troy the week before and equaled their highest scoring game in the year. A 7-6 Bama team in transition to Saban's new program beat UT 41-7.

If a coach is "the man" then they have to beat UF and Bama.... and not just when they have the "perfect" roster.
 
#163
#163
zero-sum said:
Not FL and Mizzou? That's definite improvement?
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The way UT has been in the past they could be 11-1 and the loss be to Florida. There's a mental block there. I think Tennessee will beat Florida in Knoxville in 2016 but not this season in the Swamp. I'm going to be very happy with a 9-4 record after Bowl game this season.
 
#164
#164
Dave1967 said:
8-4 is very good improvement. I think UT beats UGA in Knoxville this season and that's definate improvement
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If they do not beat Mizzou this year then that will be an indication of regression. Mizzou has lost a TON of production over the past two years. The roster situation they are dealing with is much worse than UT's.
 
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#165
#165
sjt18 said:
If they do not beat Mizzou this year then that will be an indication of regression. Mizzou has lost a TON of production over the past two years. The roster situation they are dealing with is much worse than UT's.
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how could 8 wins and with a Bowl victory 9 wins be a regression from a 7 win team?:crazy::shakehead:
 
#166
#166
Dave1967 said:
The way UT has been in the past they could be 11-1 and the loss be to Florida. There's a mental block there. I think Tennessee will beat Florida in Knoxville in 2016 but not this season in the Swamp. I'm going to be very happy with a 9-4 record after Bowl game this season.
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Their odds of winning / beating FL are better this yr than next
 
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#167
#167
Dave1967 said:
how could 8 wins and with a Bowl victory 9 wins be a regression from a 7 win team?:crazy::shakehead:
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Mizzou has had "less" talent than UT for the last two years. It wasn't as large a gap in '13 as '14 and you could "excuse" '14 due to AJ's dismissal and youth.

This fall, UT will have a VERY significant talent advantage over Mizzou AND an experience advantage over them.

Another loss to them would signal regression.

In '13, Mizzou had an experience advantage and Dobbs in his first start. In '14, the Vols lost a VERY winnable game in part because of a game plan that was too conservative and an attempt to "manage the game" against a riverboat gambler. Mizzou hit the big plays to win.

This year... Mizzou loses a TON of production. UT is no longer particularly young nor thin nor lacking in talent. ALL of the advantages from a roster standpoint line up in UT's favor.
 
#168
#168
Short answer: If you have lost to a team with less talent for two years and have an even BIGGER talent gap PLUS an experience advantage... and still lose to them... that's regression.
 
#169
#169
zero-sum said:
Their odds of winning / beating FL are better this yr than next
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According to many here... a coach can't be expected to install their system and beat anyone significant in their first year. By their logic, UF should be a cakewalk for UT this fall.... Somehow I don't expect it to be.
 
#170
#170
sjt18 said:
Short answer: If you have lost to a team with less talent for two years and have an even BIGGER talent gap PLUS an experience advantage... and still lose to them... that's regression.
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I still can't see regression when there's going to probably be two more wins in 2015 than in 2014
 
#171
#171
Dave1967 said:
I still can't see regression when there's going to probably be two more wins in 2015 than in 2014
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Progress is beating ALL of the teams you should beat and some of those that you shouldn't. If you are still losing to teams that you should beat... you aren't making progress.

Roster wise, UT should not only beat MU this fall... they should hammer them.

They have Mauk at QB who hasn't been consistent even with significant talent and experience at the skill positions. This year his leading returning WR will have 5 catches for his career. Hansbrough will be his only returning RB with significant experience. The next leading rusher had 27 carries for 101 yds in '14. They do return their leading TE who will be a JR along with 4 of 5 OL starters (just like UT except the guy they lost was drafted and had two ACL's).

All this was lost from an O that was already anemic.
 
#172
#172
I'm fine with that. People are getting a little too antsy for the season and throwing out 10-2 for our record. I believe that can happen if all goes right but honestly 8-4 is a pass with me. Now in 2016 I need to see a SECCG appearance or 10-2. This is still building up our team and will be a growing year but we are on the right trajectory. 8-4 is as possible as 10-2 IMO and all of this hinges on what DeBord, Azzani and Butch do with the offense because the Defense should... I repeat should be stout next year.
 
#174
#174
8-4 is the minimum. Also will depend on how we got there and the bowl result. Last year was 6-6 with a bowl win to finish 7-6. 8-4 while not being competitive in a few of the losses and a bowl loss to finish 8-5 would really not be much better than 7-6.

But 8-4 while being competitive against our top competition and winning a bowl to finish 9-4 would be a good step forward.

I do think 10-2 or even 9-3 may be a tad optimistic.
 
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#175
#175
sjt18 said:
Progress is beating ALL of the teams you should beat and some of those that you shouldn't. If you are still losing to teams that you should beat... you aren't making progress.

Roster wise, UT should not only beat MU this fall... they should hammer them.

They have Mauk at QB who hasn't been consistent even with significant talent and experience at the skill positions. This year his leading returning WR will have 5 catches for his career. Hansbrough will be his only returning RB with significant experience. The next leading rusher had 27 carries for 101 yds in '14. They do return their leading TE who will be a JR along with 4 of 5 OL starters (just like UT except the guy they lost was drafted and had two ACL's).

All this was lost from an O that was already anemic.
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You have fallen for the same fallacy with Mauk as you so often do with UT. Mauk was a Sophomore last season and as such you mistakenly try to predict his Junior season based on Sophomore efforts.
 
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