If we go 8-4?

[KnoxRealtorVOL]

If you are right... then Jones is not the guy.

Mmhmm. ^ What he said.

 

[Evet Vols]

I would be extremely happy with that at this point. Right now I see 7 as total.

Extremely happy with 8? I could easily see it happening but I wouldn't be extremely happy. This means that TN will probably have lost to AL, FL, GA and Oklahoma - Again. TN needs to start the season off fast and beat OK. I just feel like even though OK is out of conference this game is important.

 

[KBVol]

Why do people keep repeating that same li..... errr, false information?

Don't know. It's almost as though when you post that we have a lot of upperclassmen this year that they interpret it as you're saying Butch sucks or something. I don't get it. I was as surprised as anyone when I looked at it and saw all those juniors and seniors. I think it's great news and gives us more hope for the season. We have seasoned, talented, experienced leadership to go with young, talented sophomores and incoming freshmen. It's a good thing.

 

[gunner]

Don't know. It's almost as though when you post that we have a lot of upperclassmen this year that they interpret it as you're saying Butch sucks or something. I don't get it. I was as surprised as anyone when I looked at it and saw all those juniors and seniors. I think it's great news and gives us more hope for the season. We have seasoned, talented, experienced leadership to go with young, talented sophomores and incoming freshmen. It's a good thing.

I agree the Vols have a good mix of talent and more depth at most positions since B.K. (Before Kiffin). If this team can learn how to win close games, it could be a great season! The forecast for 2016 is even brighter!

 

[sjt18]

I agree the Vols have a good mix of talent and more depth at most positions since B.K. (Before Kiffin). If this team can learn how to win close games, it could be a great season! The forecast for 2016 is even brighter!

Honest question. Have you considered what UT will lose from '15 to '16? Three of 5 OL's, one of the top two TE's, 3 WR's possibly 4 if North goes off (UT is suddenly not nearly as deep as before), both starting S's, starting DT, and starting all everything on D (Maggitt).

In the not-to-pleasant to think about category, Kamara if he has a great year could also be a one and done at UT. He will have been out of HS for 3 years at the end of the season.


LWSVol, posted an analysis of attrition not long ago. Some actually cheered... but what it showed is that UT has had extraordinary attrition from Jones' first 2 classes. That cannot continue or else the Vols will ALWAYS be dependent on young and possibly underdeveloped players.... of course some here can't handle that truth and will attack anyone who says it.

 

[MedicT]

If you feel that looking like an abject idiot is "fun" then have at it.

For the record, you will not be surprised to find out that my opinion holds that I have found the idiot in this exchange, and it "ain't" me.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Honest question. Have you considered what UT will lose from '15 to '16? Three of 5 OL's, one of the top two TE's, 3 WR's possibly 4 if North goes off (UT is suddenly not nearly as deep as before), both starting S's, starting DT, and starting all everything on D (Maggitt).

In the not-to-pleasant to think about category, Kamara if he has a great year could also be a one and done at UT. He will have been out of HS for 3 years at the end of the season.


LWSVol, posted an analysis of attrition not long ago. Some actually cheered... but what it showed is that UT has had extraordinary attrition from Jones' first 2 classes. That cannot continue or else the Vols will ALWAYS be dependent on young and possibly underdeveloped players.... of course some here can't handle that truth and will attack anyone who says it.

personally i don't mind depending on young players if we keep getting top 5 recruiting classes. at the end of the day, the best players leave after 3 seasons. i wouldn't mind becoming the college football version of Calipari's Wildcats.

 

[sjt18]

Don't know. It's almost as though when you post that we have a lot of upperclassmen this year that they interpret it as you're saying Butch sucks or something. I don't get it.

I admit that I look ahead and state what I think expectations should be. I'm not saying that "Butch sucks"... only that he may very well suck if he can't take the talent on his roster and win with it.

The other rail that you aren't supposed to touch... (that I just touched in my previous post) is attrition and its relationship to the coach. Whatever the reason kids are leaving, the Vols cannot continue to lose 25% of their recruiting classes before they become Sophs. Otherwise... they'll never reach the experience, development, and maturity that many say is so critical to success.


People hate it but until Jones proves he can win things like attrition and gameday performance are concerns. I personally think they do a very good job of individual development and obviously recruiting. But many other things could be fatal flaws.

 

[sjt18]

personally i don't mind depending on young players if we keep getting top 5 recruiting classes. at the end of the day, the best players leave after 3 seasons. i wouldn't mind becoming college football's versionf John Calipari's Kentucky Wildcats.

I don't disagree with you but there are many here who claim that you just can't win with young talent... and Jones has mentioned inexperience and depth many times. He's complained about it again this spring. You cannot build experience and depth while having attrition as high as UT has had unless the initial burst is followed by extraordinarily low attrition after that. Hopefully that will be the case... whereas other programs lose players over all 4 years... maybe Jones will lose most of the ones who are going to go early on?

Meyer btw isn't the first coach to win a NC with major contributions from Fr and Sophs. Carroll did it at USCw too. Saban's first NC team at Bama had very good contributions from young players. As you said, youth isn't much of an inhibitor for some coaches.

 

[sjt18]

For the record, you will not be surprised to find out that my opinion holds that I have found the idiot in this exchange, and it "ain't" me.

No... I am not at all surprised that you are self-delusional or that you believe that you are a really clever guy. In fact, I'm surprised on those rare occasions where you don't behave that way.

 

[sjt18]

Truth be known... I am more worried that Jones will be the type of coach who can only become a 7-10 win per year coach than that he would fail badly enough to get fired. A guy who never really does poorly enough to justify being fired... but never gets the program to a championship level either. There are too many (WAY TOO MANY) who are very apparently satisfied with mediocrity.

PS- The youth, talent, and experience "reasons" are already starting to wear a little thin. A 7 win season this fall would fully wear them out. After 3 years, you've had time to at least partially answer those issues and a 7 or less win season... wouldn't do that.

 

[Ericvol2096]

8-4 is fine. Anything less than that is unacceptable.

Pretty much the right answer.

7-5 would probably warrant a few staff changes...UNLESS serious injuries played a hand in that record.

 

[Ericvol2096]

Truth be known... I am more worried that Jones will be the type of coach who can only become a 7-10 win per year coach than that he would fail badly enough to get fired. A guy who never really does poorly enough to justify being fired... but never gets the program to a championship level either. There are too many (WAY TOO MANY) who are very apparently satisfied with mediocrity.

PS- The youth, talent, and experience "reasons" are already starting to wear a little thin. A 7 win season this fall would fully wear them out. After 3 years, you've had time to at least partially answer those issues and a 7 or less win season... wouldn't do that.

While I agree with you that this is the year that we can really start to judge Butch and the excuses should fall off, people aren't happy with mediocrity long-term, just in the first two seasons we knew would be rough.

Most expect a significant jump to the 8-10 win range this season. If we hover in the 7-9 win range for the next 5 years after landing top 10 class after top 10 class your theory will be right and we will move on.

But to not be satisfied right now is silly and to "expect" anything more than 8 wins this season wouldn't be right.

 

[KnoxRealtorVOL]

While I agree with you that this is the year that we can really start to judge Butch and the excuses should fall off, people aren't happy with mediocrity long-term, just in the first two seasons we knew would be rough.

Most expect a significant jump to the 8-10 win range this season. If we hover in the 7-9 win range for the next 5 years after landing top 10 class after top 10 class your theory will be right and we will move on.

But to not be satisfied right now is silly and to "expect" anything more than 8 wins this season wouldn't be right.

My question is, what reasons do we have for NOT expecting at least 8 wins this year? Youth really isn't an excuse anymore, we've got the talent, we've got the QB, and we've got a coach who has several 10+ win seasons on his résumé.

 

[YankeeVol]

My question is, what reasons do we have for NOT expecting at least 8 wins this year? Youth really isn't an excuse anymore, we've got the talent, we've got the QB, and we've got a coach who has several 10+ win seasons on his résumé.

That QB gets hurt and you're looking at a True Freshman. That won't likely end well. We have THREE RBs on scholarship. We have the talent. We have a capable coach. But our depth is still lacking. IF everyone stays healthy (highly unlikely) we will have a great season. Youth is still an issue as well.

 

[Volview]

Truth be known... I am more worried that Jones will be the type of coach who can only become a 7-10 win per year coach than that he would fail badly enough to get fired. A guy who never really does poorly enough to justify being fired... but never gets the program to a championship level either. There are too many (WAY TOO MANY) who are very apparently satisfied with mediocrity.

Don't worry about it. If the powers at UT can fire a NC winning coach when he became a 7-10 win per year coach when they will fire CBJ if he cannot produce wins. We will not become UGA.

I said at the beginning of 2014's season that 2016 is the year to truly judge CBJ. I expect at least 8-4 this season speaks to the fact that he seems to be rebuilding the program faster than I expected.

CBJ is actually fireproof this season (at least as far as W/L). If UT fired him after 2 years of rebuilding a collapsed program after firing a coach with 2 years of trying to rebuild a collapsed program, then I do not think there is enough money in UT's coffers to bring in even a mediocre coach.

 

[KnoxRealtorVOL]

That QB gets hurt and you're looking at a True Freshman. That won't likely end well. We have THREE RBs on scholarship. We have the talent. We have a capable coach. But our depth is still lacking. IF everyone stays healthy (highly unlikely) we will have a great season. Youth is still an issue as well.

I just don't think it is. Most teams don't consist of just juniors and seniors these days. The majority of teams rely on sophomores and juniors, with the occasional freshman here and there. I think that is us in a nutshell.

 

[sjt18]

While I agree with you that this is the year that we can really start to judge Butch and the excuses should fall off, people aren't happy with mediocrity long-term, just in the first two seasons we knew would be rough.

Most expect a significant jump to the 8-10 win range this season. If we hover in the 7-9 win range for the next 5 years after landing top 10 class after top 10 class your theory will be right and we will move on.

But to not be satisfied right now is silly and to "expect" anything more than 8 wins this season wouldn't be right.

But expecting less than 8 isn't? IMO, 8 is the passing grade... the "meets expectation" performance... a "C". Nine would be a "B". Ten would be an "A". Anything better and get a street sign ready for Jones.

OTOH, 7 would be a "D"... yes I know it is technically passing but should have him on a warm if not hot seat. Less than 7 would be an "F".

There are people rationalizing why a 7 win season would represent adequate "improvement" here... and not just a few. There are people saying that 6 wins this past season was an overachievement. I don't think I'm overestimating the willingness here to accept mediocrity. I would argue that the five seasons from 2000 to 2004 where Fulmer "hovered" in mediocrity in spite of landing highly ranked recruiting classes was what led to his decline... which is what led to the decimated roster that Kiffin inherited (then made worse in 2009) which led not only to the weak roster Dooley inherited... but the fact that Dooley was ever a serious candidate for the UT coaching job at all... which led to the mess Jones inherited.

As I've said a number of times, Kiffin nor Dooley were good enough to fix UT's football program... but they didn't break it. Fulmer did.

 

[sjt18]

Don't worry about it. If the powers at UT can fire a NC winning coach when he became a 7-10 win per year coach when they will fire CBJ if he cannot produce wins. We will not become UGA.

Actually, UGA has become UT. A coach that had success in the past is being tolerated in mediocrity. People act as if Fulmer just tripped up a few seasons right before he was fired but 2005 was preceded by a decline marked by poor discipline, entitlement, and some laziness. He should have at least been talked to before 2005 but there were few indications that he was.

I said at the beginning of 2014's season that 2016 is the year to truly judge CBJ. I expect at least 8-4 this season speaks to the fact that he seems to be rebuilding the program faster than I expected.

Then we disagree on how programs are turned around (I compare to how it has been done normally around college football) and... expectations. An 8-4 season this fall won't be an extraordinary accomplishment. It will be a "C"... it will not fall below the "floor".

CBJ is actually fireproof this season (at least as far as W/L). If UT fired him after 2 years of rebuilding a collapsed program after firing a coach with 2 years of trying to rebuild a collapsed program, then I do not think there is enough money in UT's coffers to bring in even a mediocre coach.

Pretty much the same argument offered for Dooley going into year 3.

BTW, no one that I know of is advocating that Jones be fired now (after two years). There is little chance IMHO that he gets fired after next year short of a 5-7 season or some extraordinary problem. But if I were "king"... anything less than 8 wins would put him on a very, very hot seat going into '16. He would just about have to make the SEC CG to keep his job.

 

[sjt18]

That QB gets hurt and you're looking at a True Freshman. That won't likely end well. We have THREE RBs on scholarship. We have the talent. We have a capable coach. But our depth is still lacking. IF everyone stays healthy (highly unlikely) we will have a great season. Youth is still an issue as well.

Because I think he's a great talent... I look for McKenzie to start and be one of only 2 or 3 Fr to make the 2 deep. Outside of that, the starting roster will consist of 9 Srs, 7 Jrs, and 5 Sophs. The Vols return 18 of 22 starters.

That's not young.

UT returns 39 out of 44 players from last year's two deep... That's not young either.

Youth should NOT be a problem this fall nor should inexperience nor should understanding of the system nor should development/maturity/S&C.

If those things come up again... then someone is making excuses.

 

[YankeeVol]

I just don't think it is. Most teams don't consist of just juniors and seniors these days. The majority of teams rely on sophomores and juniors, with the occasional freshman here and there. I think that is us in a nutshell.

We will be relying very heavily on true sophomores and true freshman, and more than occasional.

But hey, you have a pattern, might as well stick to it.

 

[Volview]

Actually, UGA has become UT. A coach that had success in the past is being tolerated in mediocrity. People act as if Fulmer just tripped up a few seasons right before he was fired but 2005 was preceded by a decline marked by poor discipline, entitlement, and some laziness. He should have at least been talked to before 2005 but there were few indications that he was.

Except...CMR doesn't really have the same record as CPF even in his early days. CPF end game mediocrity was at least balanced with a NC, back to back SEC Championships and being having the highest winning percentage of any active coach. UGA is next level on tolerating mediocrity. I feel like CMR is just limping along helped by the fact the normal powers in the SEC East have been down.

 

[KnoxRealtorVOL]

We will be relying very heavily on true sophomores and true freshman, and more than occasional.

But hey, you have a pattern, might as well stick to it.

Whatever you say, cheif. Look at sjt's post right about yours, pretty much sums it up.

Just make sure if you're making excuses to people to guage the funny looks you get when you say "well we're young, we have a team full of Sophomores and Juniors"

 

[Ericvol2096]

My question is, what reasons do we have for NOT expecting at least 8 wins this year? Youth really isn't an excuse anymore, we've got the talent, we've got the QB, and we've got a coach who has several 10+ win seasons on his résumé.

I don't see many besides major injuries at key times to key players as we are still thin and green in our second unit in many places. 1 recruiting cycle away from having the full depth we'd like...can we win without it? For sure, but if we get unlucky we are still susceptible to a drop off.

Here is proof that our program is rising. If you took last years ESPN preseason positional ratings you would have this average with a few positional weightings.

Here would have been last years using the x2 QB and 1.5 OL/DL formula

2014
1. Alabama - 121
2. Auburn - 106.5
3. SC - 98.5
4. LSU - 95.5
5. Georgia - 93.5
6. Missouri - 92.5
7. Miss St - 89
8. Ole Miss - 88.5
9. Florida - 88
10. Texas A&M - 78.5
11. Tennessee - 46.5
12. Arkansas - 43
13. Kentucky - 31
14. Vandy - 29

That projected
SEC West
1. Alabama (0)
2. Auburn (-2)
3. LSU (-2)
4. Miss St (+2)
5. Ole Miss (+2)
6. A&M (0)
7. Arkansas (0)

SEC East
1. SC (-4)
2. UGA (0)
3. Missouri (+2)
4. Florida (+1)
5. TN (+1)
6. Kentucky (0)
7. Vandy (0)

Total deviation from final standings was 14 spots (one spot per team)...really not that terrible. Only one team had more than 2 spot deviation.

So if you take this years ratings (granted we don't have DB or ST yet) the standings would look like this.

2015
1 - Tennessee - 84
1 - Auburn - 84
3 - Alabama - 77
4 - Georgia - 74.5
5 - Missouri- 71.5
6 - Miss St - 70
7 - LSU - 68.5
8 - Arkansas - 63.5
9 - Texas A&M - 63
10 - Ole Miss - 48
11 - Florida - 47
12 - South Carolina - 39
13 - Kentucky - 34
14 - Vandy - 16

SEC West
1 - Auburn
2 - Alabama
3 - Miss St
4 - LSU
5 - Arkansas
6 - Texas A&M
7 - Ole Miss

SEC East
1 - Tennessee
2 - Georgia
3 - Missouri
4 - Florida
5 - South Carolina
6 - Kentucky
7 - Vandy

The way Jones has turned around the roster is nothing short of remarkable.

 

[sjt18]

We will be relying very heavily on true sophomores and true freshman, and more than occasional.

But hey, you have a pattern, might as well stick to it.

OK. I've posted the facts. If you do not agree that they ARE facts... then please post your proof. If UT is dependent on true Fr it will be because they've earned it over SEC caliber Sophs, Jrs, and Srs. They won't be as dependent on Sophs as you seem to imagine unless they earn it... and it won't be a bad thing necessarily if they are.

Within the last few days, I posted stats from tOSU this year. Most of their statistical leaders were Sophs and Fr.