I Created a CFB Ranking System

[bamawriter]

Seems like your SOS measure is weighted a little too heavily to get Army up so high but what has NC State up so high? My Army comment is based on your prior reason given for their ranking. If something else has them up so high please share. Interesting stuff though.

Both are bolstered by SOS.

 

[bamawriter]

Connecticut is 1-7 giving up 625 yards and 47.8 points per game, both worst in the FBS. How is it possible that they are not in the bottom 10.

Their SOS is keeping them just outside.

 

[hUTch2002]

Both are bolstered by SOS.

How does your sos work?

 

[bamawriter]

How does your sos work?

I broke down the formula in the first post of the thread.

 

[hUTch2002]

I broke down the formula in the first post of the thread.

Ok. I didn’t know if you had made any adjustments over the years.

 

[bamawriter]

Ok. I didn’t know if you had made any adjustments over the years.

Nah. Trying to leave it alone.

 

[volinbham]

Love seeing UAB in the Top 25. ESPN has them there too in their power rankings

 

[kxtop]

Back in 2011, during the controversy surrounding the Bama-LSU rematch, I started putting together my own version of a BCS computer ranking system. I was going to use it in a future column to detail how stupid the very concept of the computers is when it comes to determining a champion. But, before I had the chance to write that column, the playoff was announced, and it seemed sort of pointless.

Anyway, I was clearing of a hard drive and found my system. Because I'm bored, I decided to update it for the past several seasons just to see what it would spit out for the four team playoff. Thought some on here might find it interesting. Certainly could spur some debate.

Here's the idea:

Bias is completely eliminated. Team names, history, and conference are all ignored. Winning % and strength of schedule are the most important factors. While the BCS eliminated margin of victory, I think that's ridiculous, so it's back in on mine. In order to adjust for home field advantage, I took the standard Vegas rule and subtracted 3 points for a game at home, and added 3 points for a road game, creating an adjusted point differential. I also included average yardage differential to help account for the way a game actually played out on the field. FCS opponents are given a standard .25 winning % and only their games against FBS teams count toward their point differential.

Here's the formula:

Winning % x 100 (too make it a whole number)
+
Opponents' Winning % x 100
+
Average Adjusted Point Differential
+
Opponents' Average Point Differential
+
Average Yardage Differential / 100
=
SCORE


As an example, 2015 Tennessee had the following score (bowl game not included):

(.6667 x 100) + (.5385 x 100) + 12.4167 + .5753 + (52.0833 / 100) = 134.0328

Interestingly, my system from last year produced the same 4 playoff teams, and even the same semifinal matchups, but with different seeding:

1. Alabama - 176.4984
2. Clemson - 175.6221
3. Oklahoma - 174.9711
4. Mich St. - 164.4958

Michigan State got in over Ohio State by .0007.

I went back to 2008 if anyone is interested in more.

Hope you did not waste a lot of time on this because it is meaningless exercise. No one knows what the committee is thinking, how it functions or how it arrives its decisions. Other than Alabama you could take the next 5 teams and throw their names down the steps and arrive at an arguable conclusion. This perhaps with the exception of Notre Dame which is there by reputation alone.

 

[bamawriter]

Hope you did not waste a lot of time on this because it is meaningless exercise. No one knows what the committee is thinking, how it functions or how it arrives its decisions. Other than Alabama you could take the next 5 teams and throw their names down the steps and arrive at an arguable conclusion. This perhaps with the exception of Notre Dame which is there by reputation alone.

It really has nothing to do with figuring out what the committee is thinking.

 

[bamawriter]

WEEK 10 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches/CFP):

1. Clemson (9-0) - 187.3419 (2/2/2)
2. Alabama (9-0) - 186.9604 (1/1/1)
3. Michigan (8-1) - 176.1062 (4/4/4)
4. Georgia (8-1) - 169.2976 (5/5/5)
5. Notre Dame (9-0) - 164.2215 (3/3/3)
6. Oklahoma (8-1) - 163.8461 (6/6/6)
7. LSU (7-2) - 163.0275 (9/10/7)
8. UCF (8-0) - 156.3949 (11/11/12)
9. West Virginia (7-1) - 149.7787 (7/8/9)
10. NC State (6-2) - 147.3244 (22/22/14)
11. Fresno St (8-1) - 147.1437 (16/17/23)
12. Utah St (8-1) - 147.0389 (14/16/UR)
13. Penn St (6-3) - 146.8269 (21/20/20)
14. Army (7-2) - 146.2747 (UR/UR/UR)
15. Ohio St (8-1) - 144.7581 (8/7/10)
16. Washington St (8-1) - 144.0653 (10/9/8)
17. UAB (8-1) - 142.7583 (UR/UR/UR)
18. Kentucky (7-2) - 141.4428 (12/12/11)
19. Appalachian St (6-2) - 139.4322 (UR/UR/UR)
20. Mississippi St (6-3) - 138.8726 (18/15/16)
21. Boise St (7-2) - 138.7842 (UR/UR/UR)
22. Cincinnati (8-1) - 137.6041 (25/23/UR)
23. Iowa St (5-3) - 136.5157 (23/25/22)
24. Michigan St (6-3) - 136.4744 (24/UR/18)
25. Buffalo (8-1) - 136.3584 (UR/UR/UR)

 

[bamawriter]

NY6 Bowl Matchups as of today:

Orange (CFP) - #1 Clemson vs. #4 Georgia
Cotton (CFP ) - #2 Alabama vs. #3 Michigan

Sugar (SEC vs. Big XII) - #7 LSU vs. #6 Oklahoma
Rose (Big 10 vs. Pac 12) - #13 Penn St vs. #16 Washington St
Peach (At-Large vs. At-Large) - #5 Notre Dame vs. #10 NC State
Fiesta (At-Large vs. At-Large) - #9 West Virginia vs. #8 UCF

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

26. Missouri (5-4) - 135.0118
30. Florida (6-3) - 133.1258 (19/21)
33. Texas A&M (5-4) - 132.6234
38. South Carolina (5-3) - 129.9297
41. Auburn (6-3) - 127.7043
58. Ole Miss (5-4) - 113.1182
59. Vanderbilt (4-5) - 112.4772
74. Tennessee (4-5) - 105.6070
108. Arkansas (2-7) - 69.3391

 

[bamawriter]

The Bottom 10:

121. Old Dominion (2-7) - 54.3498
122. Texas St (3-6) - 53.1027
123. UConn (1-8) - 53.0051
124. Kent St (2-7) - 51.6085
125. Rutgers (1-8) - 50.1565
126. San Jose St (1-8) - 49.8493
127. Rice (1-9) - 44.6199
128. UTEP (1-8) - 42.9536
129. Western Kentucky (1-8) - 42.5748
130. Bowling Green (1-8) - 41.1391

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title) - Missouri

 

[LouderVol]

The Bottom 10:

121. Old Dominion (2-7) - 54.3498
122. Texas St (3-6) - 53.1027
123. UConn (1-8) - 53.0051
124. Kent St (2-7) - 51.6085
125. Rutgers (1-8) - 50.1565
126. San Jose St (1-8) - 49.8493
127. Rice (1-9) - 44.6199
128. UTEP (1-8) - 42.9536
129. Western Kentucky (1-8) - 42.5748
130. Bowling Green (1-8) - 41.1391

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title) - Missouri

why didn't Georgia get the Champion of Life title when they beat Florida?

 

[bamawriter]

why didn't Georgia get the Champion of Life title when they beat Florida?

They're ineligible by way of actually being champions of something.

 

[MyBloodRunnethOrange]

The Bottom 10:

121. Old Dominion (2-7) - 54.3498
122. Texas St (3-6) - 53.1027
123. UConn (1-8) - 53.0051
124. Kent St (2-7) - 51.6085
125. Rutgers (1-8) - 50.1565
126. San Jose St (1-8) - 49.8493
127. Rice (1-9) - 44.6199
128. UTEP (1-8) - 42.9536
129. Western Kentucky (1-8) - 42.5748
130. Bowling Green (1-8) - 41.1391

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title) - Missouri

Interesting that odu makes the bottom 10 even after upsetting VT

 

[bamawriter]

Interesting that odu makes the bottom 10 even after upsetting VT

Is Virginia Tech all that great a win at this point? They are #84 in the ranking.

 

[MyBloodRunnethOrange]

Is Virginia Tech all that great a win at this point? They are #84 in the ranking.

It's a great win for a team like Old Dominion. Of course it's also odd that they can beat a mid tier P5 team and still only be 2-7

 

[bamawriter]

WEEK 11 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches/CFP):

1. Alabama (10-0) - 189.7770 (1/1/1)
2. Clemson (10-0) - 188.0714 (2/2/2)
3. Michigan (9-1) - 171.7910 (4/4/4)
4. Georgia (9-1) - 170.6346 (5/5/5)
5. Notre Dame (10-0) - 165.0716 (3/3/3)
6. Oklahoma (9-1) - 163.2999 (6/6/6)
7. LSU (8-2) - 156.2300 (10/10/7)
8. UCF (9-0) - 155.6907 (11/11/11)
9. West Virginia (8-1) - 153.3310 (7/7/9)
10. Ohio St (9-1) - 149.7420 (9/8/10)
11. Penn St (7-3) - 149.2712 (16/15/14)
12. Washington St (9-1) - 147.2110 (8/9/8)
13. Utah St (9-1) - 146.7956 (14/13/23)
14. Boise St (8-2) - 146.5060 (23/24/25)
15. Army (8-2) - 145.8094 (UR/UR/UR)
16. Cincinnati (9-1) - 143.3960 (19/20/24)
17. Fresno St (8-2) - 142.5746 (UR/UR/UR)
18. UAB (9-1) - 141.3010 (UR/25/UR)
19. Appalachian St (7-2) - 140.5644 (UR/UR/UR)
20. Utah (7-3) - 138.1230 (21/19/19)
21. Mississippi St (6-4) - 137.2460 (25/23/21)
22. Buffalo (9-1) - 136.9889 (UR/UR/UR)
23. Iowa St (6-3) - 134.3775 (18/18/16)
24. NC State (6-3) - 134.3311 (UR/UR/UR)
25. Florida (7-3) - 134.1286 (15/16/13)

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

26. Missouri (6-4) - 133.7686
29. Texas A&M (6-4) - 132.2056
33. Kentucky (7-3) - 129.4184
41. Auburn (6-4) - 123.2702
42. South Carolina (5-4) - 122.3711
60. Tennessee (5-5) - 112.2988
72. Vanderbilt (4-6) - 107.4566
75. Ole MIss (5-5) - 105.2036
109. Arkansas (2-8) - 66.5100

 

[bamawriter]

The Bottom 10:

121. Texas St (3-7) - 53.2602
122. Kent St (2-8) - 52.8366
123. San Jose St (1-9) - 52.0826
124. Rutgers (1-9) - 51.2210
125. UConn (1-9) - 49.7766
126. Central Michigan (1-10) - 47.4119
127. Bowling Green (2-8) - 46.0188
128. UTEP (1-9) - 44.4798
129. Rice (1-10) - 44.0253
130. Western Kentucky (1-9) - 42.3570

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title) - Missouri

 

[LouderVol]

The Rest of the SEC:

26. Missouri (6-4) - 133.7686
29. Texas A&M (6-4) - 132.2056
33. Kentucky (7-3) - 129.4184
41. Auburn (6-4) - 123.2702
42. South Carolina (5-4) - 122.3711
60. Tennessee (5-5) - 112.2988
72. Vanderbilt (4-6) - 107.4566
75. Ole MIss (5-5) - 105.2036
109. Arkansas (2-8) - 66.5100

surprised Mizzou is ranked so highly.

 

[bamawriter]

surprised Mizzou is ranked so highly.

Really strong SOS.

 

[LouderVol]

Really strong SOS.

is our SOS higher? we play the same east (obv). both played Bama. Auburn and West Viriginia seem like they would be higher than Purdue Memphis. I know the rest of ours is crap.

 

[bamawriter]

is our SOS higher? we play the same east (obv). both played Bama. Auburn and West Viriginia seem like they would be higher than Purdue Memphis. I know the rest of ours is crap.

Mizzou's is slightly higher:

UM = (.6006 opponents' avg win% *100) + 5.7900 adjusted score differential = 65.8456
UT = (.6094 *100) + 2.8233 = 63.7678

So UT's opponents have a slightly better winning %, but Mizzou's have won more convincingly. The bigger difference between the two, other than Mizzou having one more win, is that Mizzou's adjusted score differential is 7.3000 while UT's is -1.3000.