Here’s why I think ole miss wins

OrangeRaid Vol #1

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 29, 2021
Messages
46
Likes
37
That's fair but it isn't necessarily a wide margin. Corral throws for just under 300 ypg. Hooker not counting BGSU as a "game" throws for about 225. If you count only half the Pitt game against him then he avgs around 236. They're almost identical in rushing O so far.

The other half of that is whose D has performed better. In spite of fairly significant injuries, UT allows 21.5 ppg while Ole Miss allows 31. UT is 7th in the SEC in run D at 112 ypg while Ole Miss is 12th at 194 ypg. Neither has been great in pass D with both averaging in the 230's. Total D, UT allows 344 while Ole Miss allows 432.

Ole Miss is worst in penalties committed. UT is about 7th in penalties committed but improved of late. Oddly UT is 1st in opponent penalties. UT averages getting about 70 ypg through penalties. Tempo forcing mistakes?

Ole Miss and UT are 1 and 2 in first downs. UT is 7th in first downs allowed... Ole Miss is dead last.

Ole Miss is currently 1st in TO margin at 5+. UT is tied for 4th at 3+. UT is first in TFL's at 52 while Ole Miss is 11th with 33. Both allow about 5 TFL's per game.

Both are mid-pack in sacks. UT has taken too many sacks averaging 3.3 per game. Ole Miss averages about half that.

UT is 3rd in INT's while Ole Miss is tied for last.

UT is first in passes defended at 33. Ole Miss is last at 15.

UT is 3rd in 3rd down conversions at 49%. Ole Miss is 11th at 38%.

UT is 6th in RZ conversions at 89%. Ole Miss is 10th with 73%. Ole Miss has allowed 87% RZ scores. UT has allowed 89%.

Depending on what you call a "long" play... UT is actually better. UT has produced 32 plays longer than 20 yds. Ole Miss has produced 31. But they are close at 30, 40, 50, and 60 yds. UT has 2 plays over 70 yds. Ole Miss has none. Both are explosive.

Both teams have allowed long plays about the same.

Really? Do you know Ole Miss' roster well enough to make that claim or are you just parroting what someone else has claimed without actually showing? I know Price and Hubbs have harped on this theme for a long time. But depth is only important in a relative sense.

So where specifically and for what reasons do you think Ole Miss is a deeper team than UT?

Have you checked their injuries before seeing that as a disadvantage to UT? One of their starting OL's is out with ankle surgery. One of their best WR's Mingo is likely out for the year. Those are the two most recently in the news. I'm not sure if they lost anyone vs Arkansas or not or who might be coming back though it is a safe bet that those two are not.

Huh? At worst that's a non-issue. At best, the pressure is on Kiffin returning to UT.... and playing against a coach that he's never beaten iirc.

Have they? Which of their OOC opponents is even close to as good as Pitt? Yes they played Bama but at no point was that really a competitive game. It was 35-0 before Bama started subbing and Ole Miss scored against back ups.

Arkansas is a good team... but how good?

Do you? If so... why would you say it publicly and why wouldn't you do a better job of researching the opponent before posting it?

And... why? It could happen but there's no reason right here and now to assume that it will. In fact, UT has gotten MUCH better since UF. Only two penalties in each of the last two games. Defensively, Ole Miss probably isn't going to pressure UT more than USCe did.

Again, it could happen but on what objective, reasonable basis do you assume that it will? What has Ole Miss done defensively that makes you think they can slow UT down and especially if Mays, Small, and Evans all play?


You could be right. But since you've made all of these negative assumptions and unsupported claims... you'll hear about it if you're not.
Good analysis backed by stats. Thanks for stat info.
 
Likes: sjt18

Volfan76

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 6, 2009
Messages
4,134
Likes
4,676
1.Their ability to throw the ball better than us
2. depth
3. Our injured
4. The pressure is on us because their HC
5. They’ve faced better competition than us so far

I hope I’m wrong but here’s my game and score predictions.

For some reason, we go back to making stupid mistakes that cost us a chance.

We get down big early.

Ole miss 41
Tennessee 28
Pumpers won't like this but unfortunately you are right.
 
Likes: Flipdaddy

PlanetVolunteer

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 4, 2020
Messages
2,444
Likes
4,869
1.Their ability to throw the ball better than us
2. depth
3. Our injured
4. The pressure is on us because their HC
5. They’ve faced better competition than us so far

I hope I’m wrong but here’s my game and score predictions.

For some reason, we go back to making stupid mistakes that cost us a chance.

We get down big early.

Ole miss 41
Tennessee 28
how can you rationalize us only scoring 28 points on their dog crap defense?
 
Likes: saxvol

Eastknox865

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 6, 2010
Messages
2,611
Likes
5,175
1.Their ability to throw the ball better than us
2. depth
3. Our injured
4. The pressure is on us because their HC
5. They’ve faced better competition than us so far

I hope I’m wrong but here’s my game and score predictions.

For some reason, we go back to making stupid mistakes that cost us a chance.

We get down big early.

Ole miss 41
Tennessee 28
The pressure isn't on this team. These players were in elementary school when Kiffin was here
All of our players have been given the green light beside the transfer linebacker
Our defense is better
Our home crowd will be a factor
 

Falcons02

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 24, 2014
Messages
2,437
Likes
2,874
I suspect OM wins due to better QB play and we make 1 or 2 boneheaded plays (I'm looking at you Jeremy Banks) to cost us the game.

However, I am wrong plenty, and hope I am here.
 

BowlBrother85

1 star recruit
Joined
Sep 18, 2013
Messages
29,129
Likes
27,478
1.Their ability to throw the ball better than us
2. depth
3. Our injured
4. The pressure is on us because their HC
5. They’ve faced better competition than us so far

I hope I’m wrong but here’s my game and score predictions.

For some reason, we go back to making stupid mistakes that cost us a chance.

We get down big early.

Ole miss 41
Tennessee 28
Why is "The pressure on us because their HC" ?

That doesn't make any sense. Lane Kiffin only coached one season at Tennessee, and that was 12 years ago.

Our players were somewhere between 6 and 11 years old (between the 1st and 5th grades) during the 2009-10 academic school year. I would bet a majority of them have no memory of that college football season, or of how Kiffin left Tennessee that January .... while the few players who might remember, do not care.

Only a Tennessee fan would have that on their mind right now... and you think it's going to be a determining factor in the outcome of the game? Seriously??? That is so stupid.
 
Likes: Rickyvol77

GetYouSomeofThat

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 22, 2017
Messages
3,321
Likes
3,534
It’s not a one dimensional game and the best defense doesn’t necessarily win the game. It can lead to more offensive opportunities, but we have to take advantage of them and put points on the board.
If our defense has a better day than theirs, we will very likely win this game. Should our WRs go back to dropping the ball, Hooker suddenly becomes in accurate or we get tons of penalties then our defense could play great and lose. Outside of that happening, at the end of the day if we can say our defense played well we win this Saturday.
 

FlyFishnVol

Live to Fly Fish!
Joined
Feb 11, 2011
Messages
3,020
Likes
3,574
1.Their ability to throw the ball better than us
2. depth
3. Our injured
4. The pressure is on us because their HC
5. They’ve faced better competition than us so far

I hope I’m wrong but here’s my game and score predictions.

For some reason, we go back to making stupid mistakes that cost us a chance.

We get down big early.

Ole miss 41
Tennessee 28
I disagree, and here is why. The defense is familiar with a fast pace offense, the only issue I can think of is Kiffen will try to pull some kind of gimmick early to get the fan base out of the game, UT Defense has to stay on their toes for gimmick plays. If we are not drawn in by the crowd and importance, UT's defense is better than theirs...jmo.

I see something similar to the OU and Texas game. I give UT the edge because of Neyland. We can't afford any big mistakes or miscues.

The score is not the problem, as long as we have one more than Mississippi, I am good.

BTW: Neyland needs to stay loud on all downs with Mississippi

Go Vols!
 

DougVol

I’m here if I need you
Joined
Apr 23, 2009
Messages
2,380
Likes
967
Here’s the reason we might win…DEFENSE! Also, I think we have more momentum right now as we are exceeding expectations and they are doing the opposite. Also, they had a grueling game Saturday that came down to the very last play. We were able to rest kids and now heupel can get in their faces about letting up etc.
vols 52
Ole miss 35
Our kids our resting in crutches and ice tubs.
 

DaddyChad

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 31, 2008
Messages
15,923
Likes
14,635
1.Their ability to throw the ball better than us
2. depth
3. Our injured
4. The pressure is on us because their HC
5. They’ve faced better competition than us so far

I hope I’m wrong but here’s my game and score predictions.

For some reason, we go back to making stupid mistakes that cost us a chance.

We get down big early.

Ole miss 41
Tennessee 28
We have literally no pressure. Most of this team do not remember Kiffin’s time here or give a damn. You definitely have a point on injuries and depth. Their defense has showed nothing to this point. I’m not saying we win but our defense is better than theirs, our offense is comparable.

I would say one thing if Kiffin has a chance to gamble and gain an advantage he will. We need to be prepared for fake punts this week and some BS plays.
 

OrangeBeachVol

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 20, 2019
Messages
1,052
Likes
2,352
3 reason why I think TN should win.

1. Get most of our injured back
2. Ole Miss is bad at stopping the run. Heuple's O likes to run. This will drain the clock and limit Kiffin's offensive chances
3. TN D is better than Ole Miss and should be able to get 2-3 more stops than they can on us.

All bets are off in TN turns the ball over several times as I think TO's determine the winner.
 
Likes: WeeohdeeWood

BigALWiLson

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 25, 2011
Messages
2,378
Likes
1,886
Heres a nugget.... Everyone is available for Ole Miss. Everyone is banged up mid-season. We have one guy out at LB that hasn't played since the 2nd game. Ole Miss isn't a juggernaut. They can score points... So can we. Kiffin is meaningless to the Players and Coaches. The only ones who give a damn what Kiffin says ? You guessed it Volnation. Our guys seem focused based on Jackson's interview and they won't be shell shocked. This isn't our first big game. VOLS by 2 tds. Go Vols
 
Likes: saxvol

firestorm

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 10, 2011
Messages
16,435
Likes
3,101
The Volunteers are going to have to rely on their defense to defend when needed which I'm fearful is the main reason why they lose this game.
This could be like the Panthers game where the Volunteers can't execute successful offense plays in the 4th quarter needed to win a close high scoring game.

I feel slightly more optimistic with Hooker as the starter that the Volunteers have a realistic chance of defeating a good Rebels team that has a high-scoring offense.
 

utvols74

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 7, 2011
Messages
2,282
Likes
1,997
UT needs to get up on Ole Miss early and by 17 points. This will force Ole Miss into much more passing situations. We can rush 4 / blitz 1 and cover with 6.

Then we start pounding the rock with RB by Committee and Hooker when necessary.

UT - 35
OM - 28
 

sjt18

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2006
Messages
44,542
Likes
32,775
Pumpers won't like this but unfortunately you are right.
Doesn't take a "pumper" to recognize your kneejerk negative assumption about virtually everything... or the factual flaws in that argument.

I'm not even predicting a win. That game could literally go in any direction. They could get UT on skates and win by 3 or 4 TD's. UT could do the same to them. It could be a track meet where the last one with the ball wins. It could surprise the experts and both teams try to slow their O's down to prevent their D's from being abused. But the truth is that both of these teams have strengths and weaknesses. The team that wins will win advantageous match ups. I like UT's run D vs their run game. Limit that including Corral running... and the Vols take a huge step toward winning.

Would you like to discuss all the things your negative assumptions have made you wrong about just since the summer? You've said a number of truly stupid things while apparently thinking that you were just being "realistic".
 
Likes: Rickyvol77

VolArmy74

Well-Known Member
Joined
Feb 25, 2014
Messages
5,226
Likes
7,558
I suspect OM wins due to better QB play and we make 1 or 2 boneheaded plays (I'm looking at you Jeremy Banks) to cost us the game.

However, I am wrong plenty, and hope I am here.
They are worst in the nation in penalties, so hopefully they make the boneheaded plays. However, many successful teams have a lot of penalties. Ole Miss doesn't have as much talent as they do though so have a harder time overcoming it. Which is likely why they are 5-6 in SEC play under Kiffin.
 
Likes: Falcons02
Joined
Dec 3, 2012
Messages
2,505
Likes
2,957
Depth will be the key, since every game w OM is a shootout. Will be high-scoring, for sure. Corral is a helluva talent.
My thoughts exactly. I think we will be fine on offense as long as we keep our improvement going with lack of turnovers and penalties. What concerns me is our lack of depth on defense. I'm afraid that if we get in the shootout everybody thinks this will be, we will not be able to sustain the intensity needed. I hope I'm wrong, but with basically 3 healthy LB's and lack of a consistent pass rush, our secondary will be overwhelmed over the course of the game.
 

VN Store


 

Top