For those who don't understand the playoffs selection...

#76
#76
the B10 is getting 3 teams with a possibility of a 4th if Michigan can beat OSU at the end of the year which is not at all unrealistic.

there's almost no way the ACC gets less than 2 without complete disaster.

that's 5 (possibly 6), plus ND plus the best G5 team plus the winner of the B12

that's minimum 8 teams or 9 if Michigan ruins the party.

that means unless ND slips up the SEC gets 4 teams MAX.

If ND loses and Michigan doesn't beat OSU then you have a possibility of a 5th SEC team but then you also have to worry about a 3rd ACC team possibly getting in. will the CFP let 5 SEC teams in and only 2ACC? maybe maybe not.

So unless every single thing breaks the Vols way, there's not going to be more than 4 SEC teams making it.

the question is will the Vols get the chance to be that 4th team and I say that depends heavily on who wins the Ole Miss Oklahoma game. If Ole Miss wins that greatly reduces our chances.
 
#79
#79
UTFranklinVol said:
who cares. Indiana wasn't good last year and they made it no question. winning in a P4 conference is all that matters
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I understand that, but I care bc there is potentially a logjam of $hitty ACC teams sitting at 11-1 bc they don’t play anyone w/ a pulse. The teams that are supposed to be good all suck, w/ the exception of Miami.

At least Indiana had played Ohio State and beaten the defending National Champion. These teams haven’t played anyone, only Miami has a decent schedule .
 
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#80
#80
The current polls everyone talks mean nothing. It’s the CFP poll that will bring things into prospective. Then you can see who needs to win or lose. My guess is the 1st poll has the Vols on the outside looking in. Then see how far ahead the competing teams are.
 
#81
#81
Don’t sleep on Tech. There are issues with their roster but a tough HC, a really good OC, and a running QB who can throw is a dangerous mix in the playoff.

That said…assume GT wins out until the UGA game. They won’t have a ranked win. In that case, they probably need to win at least one of UGA or ACCCG. (Winning the ACCCG puts them in automatically, of course). A GT team with no ranked wins and 2 ranked losses would not compare favorably to a Tennessee team with 2 ranked wins (assuming OK and Vandy) and 2 ranked losses.
 
#82
#82
UTFranklinVol said:
if Miami wins out they will be top 10 easily probably top 5 going into the ACC title game.

if Georgia Tech wins the rest of their ACC games and the only loss is to UGA they will stay in the top 10.

if Virginia wins out they will be very very close to the top 12.

if this happens then you have GT vs Virginia in the ACC championship.

If GT wins then GT and Miami will go to the CFP

if Virginia wins then Virginia and Miami will go.

there's virtually no way Miami gets left out if they don't lose another game.

If Virginia slips up and loses a conference game they are done and out.

if GT loses a conference game (and also los a to Georgia) then they are out unless they somehow get the auto bid by winning the ACCCG.

either way there are more scenarios where two ACC teams likely make the playoff than there is just one team.

the one way 3 ACC teams get it would be if Miami wins out but misses the ACCCG, GT loses the ACCCG but beats Georgia and VT wins the ACCCG.

there's also the disinct possibly that SMU wins out and wins the ACCCG or that Louisville wins out and wins the ACCCG.

bottom line is things would have to completely fall apart in the ACC for only 1 ACC team to make the CFP along with ND.
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SMU and Miami can't both win out. Neither can SMU and Louisville.

The ACC's chances of getting at least 2 teams in is largely dependent on Miami winning out and is also not one of the 2 teams in the ACCCG or Miami makes the conference game at 11-1 while ranked inside the top 10 and loses to someone else. Miami is the only ACC team that has a chance of getting in as an at large team that didn't play in the ACCCG.
 
#83
#83
Visidog said:
Don’t sleep on Tech. There are issues with their roster but a tough HC, a really good OC, and a running QB who can throw is a dangerous mix in the playoff.

That said…assume GT wins out until the UGA game. They won’t have a ranked win. In that case, they probably need to win at least one of UGA or ACCCG. (Winning the ACCCG puts them in automatically, of course). A GT team with no ranked wins and 2 ranked losses would not compare favorably to a Tennessee team with 2 ranked wins (assuming OK and Vandy) and 2 ranked losses.
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I agree GT is in a tough position because they are unbeaten and have to play Georgia. they pretty much have to win the ACCCG unless they can pull off a win against UGA

Miami on the other hand is sitting pretty. they can win out, not have to play in the ACCCG and still make the playoff easily.
 
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#84
#84
Carp said:
SMU and Miami can't both win out. Neither can SMU and Louisville.
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yeah I know that but the chances of either one of them doing it is there

I just think there are way too many ACC teams sitting there with a chance to get in. the likelyhood of the perfect storm where they all cluster**** and lose to the point where only the ACC champion gets to the playoff Is very low.

the likelyhood of the ACC getting 3 teams in is low but so is the likelyhood of only 1 team. there's just too many teams sitting there with easy schedules.
 
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#87
#87
DocVol said:
18% to run the table to have a shot, per the predictor. Not great odds, Cotton.
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90% if we run the table. Teams above us also have to run the table as well. Texas AM, Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU and it is possible. Lose Tie breakers to AL/GA with the Vandy game being a possibe elimination game. Kentucky, New Mexico State, OK, FL, and VU left on the Schedule.

Gibson, McCoy are Juniors without a redshirt year. Is it possible for them to take a Redshirt or not? Medical if they don't play.
 
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#88
#88
Woodlawn VOL said:
Actually if we win out the odds go up a ton. That is factoring in winning out, if we win out 90 percent we will be in. GBO
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You’re misunderstanding it.

Of course odds go up if they win out.

BUT, before any of those games, the chance to actually make the playoffs (as in, win out to make the playoffs) is 18% according to the predictor.

=18% to “make the playoffs currently” meaning 18% to win out (as in that’s the only way they make the playoffs)
 
#90
#90
Sudden Impact said:
90% if we run the table.
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there are just way too many variables for those predictors to mean anything. they all just go on Vegas odds to win the games.

what happens to those predictions if Ole Miss beats OK? what happens if Michigan beats OSU? what happens if GT beats Georgia? what do the odds look like then?
 
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#92
#92
UTFranklinVol said:
there are just way too many variables for those predictors to mean anything. they all just go on Vegas odds to win the games.

what happens to those predictions if Ole Miss beats OK? what happens if Michigan beats OSU? what happens if GT beats Georgia? what do the odds look like then?
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My point exactly. A lot of if's, and's, and but's. so be it. Vegas is the hunch capitol of the world and they are pretty good at what we call a guess, but for them it is a profession. Sure they miss the boat some times but they do it with facts, stats and experience. Can't rule them out because they did not do it in a Vacuum without looking at the other team's facts, stats and experience. At this moment, it is 18%, BUT if they run the table no doubt it will be 90%.
 
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#94
#94
UTFranklinVol said:
there are just way too many variables for those predictors to mean anything. they all just go on Vegas odds to win the games.

what happens to those predictions if Ole Miss beats OK? what happens if Michigan beats OSU? what happens if GT beats Georgia? what do the odds look like then?
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Yeah these things usually have a way of working themselves out.

Ole Miss v Oklahoma is a game that affects a lot of teams in the SEC. I also think that UGA v Texas could ripple out, especially if Texas wins.
 
#95
#95
Rickyvol77 said:
As I stated in the long playoff prediction thread, UT is in at 10-2..period.

If you want to argue they will lose to Oklahoma or Florida or whatever fine...do your Eeyore routine. But 10-2 will put UT in the playoff

www.espn.com

Who will make the 12-team College Football Playoff?

Select your favorite contender, make your picks for how its season will play out and see what the Allstate Playoff Predictor foretells.
www.espn.com
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They will need to win out and get help. If we get there and get embarrassed again, I'd rather not make the playoffs. A lot of things needs fixed in these last stretch of games.
 
#96
#96
Sarms58 said:
And unfortunately it’s looking like the ACC will get three teams in this year…Big 10 will get three also and ND is in if they win out…add the Big 12 Champ and the highest ranked group of 6 (USF right now) and there are just 3 slots left…so even if we win out and Ole Miss and Missouri tank, we could still be outside looking in…
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Would you like 5-1 odds for 3 ACC teams making it? Because if you are saying that's "likely", it would seem like a good deal. There is not a 5% chance of this happening.
 
#97
#97
Rickyvol77 said:
As I stated in the long playoff prediction thread, UT is in at 10-2..period.

If you want to argue they will lose to Oklahoma or Florida or whatever fine...do your Eeyore routine. But 10-2 will put UT in the playoff

www.espn.com

Who will make the 12-team College Football Playoff?

Select your favorite contender, make your picks for how its season will play out and see what the Allstate Playoff Predictor foretells.
www.espn.com
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You don't understand how it works.
 
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#100
#100
UTvolz9808 said:
I think 10-2 will do it but it would be better to pick up a win in Atlanta to secure a playoff spot… at this point I want to win the sec more than I want to just get in
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10-2 Will do? As in "good enough to get by"? That's hilarious. We are in the bottom half of the conference. We have zero legit wins. We've lost to the two best teams we play. And, apparently, you have no idea how the selection works, as you didn't mention the SEC standings. You guys really gotta stop with the playoff delusions. We aren't even in the SEC title picture, but y'all thinking national title? Good grief.... 🤦‍♂️
 
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