East Tennessee Weather II

The areas of extreme NE MS that had no activity with multiple high risk days a few weeks back is getting blasted by a large tornado tonight (although there was no/marginal risk in these areas just a few hours ago). Looks like the SPC blew it today in MS.
Fire them all and start over
 
~Severe Weather Alert~

There is a Slight Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms for the western 2/3rds of East TN (along and west of Morristown). There is a marginal risk for everywhere else.

Timing:

In addition to the isolated storms happening right now, there will be a line of storms moving through late morning. There could be another round in the evening, but the threat is conditional.

Hazards:

Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and large hail up to half dollar size are possible. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out, though the chances are very low.
 
Alert!!!!!!!

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Knox County in east Tennessee...
Central Anderson County in east Tennessee...

* Until 530 AM EDT.

* At 440 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Oak Ridge,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Oak Ridge, Clinton, Oliver Springs, Norris, Bearden,
Powell, Karns and Andersonville.
 
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Alert!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Cumberland County in Middle Tennessee...
Southeastern White County in Middle Tennessee...

* Until 830 AM CDT.

* At 807 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Sparta, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Crossville around 830 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Virgin
Falls State Natural Area, Lake Tansi, Doyle and Pleasant Hill.
 
Update:

The Tornado Warning for southwest Cumberland County has been extended to 9:00 AM CST and expanded to the rest of the southern half of the county.
 
Watch Alert!!!!!!!!!

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the southern half of East TN (along and south of interstate 40) until 1:00 PM EST.
 
Alert!!!!!!!!!!!

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southern Morgan County in east Tennessee...
Northeastern Rhea County in east Tennessee...
Northeastern Bledsoe County in east Tennessee...
Roane County in east Tennessee...

* Until 1015 AM EDT/915 AM CDT/.

* At 937 AM EDT/837 AM CDT/, severe thunderstorms were located along
a line extending from 11 miles west of Wartburg to near Fairfield
Glade to 13 miles northeast of Spencer, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Oak Ridge, Kingston, Rockwood, Wartburg, Fairview, Oliver Springs,
Spring City, Midtown, Harriman and Oakdale.
 
Alert!!!!!!!!!

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Western Rhea County in east Tennessee...
Central Bledsoe County in east Tennessee...

* Until 1015 AM EDT/915 AM CDT/.

* At 947 AM EDT/847 AM CDT/, a severe thunderstorm was located over
Pikeville, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Dayton, Pikeville, Graysville, Evensville, Palio, Stinging Fork
Falls State Park, Old Washington and Brayton.
 
Alert!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Loudon County in east Tennessee...
Southern Knox County in east Tennessee...
Southwestern Anderson County in east Tennessee...
Northwestern Blount County in east Tennessee...
Roane County in east Tennessee...

* Until 1030 AM EDT.

* At 1002 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Oliver Springs to near Kingston to near Fairview,
moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Oak Ridge, Maryville, Lenoir City, Alcoa, Kingston,
Loudon, Farragut, Fairview and Oliver Springs.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 40 in Tennessee between mile markers 354 and 388.
Interstate 75 in Tennessee between mile markers 67 and 84.
 
Alert!!!!!!!!

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Morgan County in east Tennessee...
Anderson County in east Tennessee...
Southern Campbell County in east Tennessee...
Northeastern Roane County in east Tennessee...
Southeastern Scott County in east Tennessee...

* Until 600 PM EDT.

* At 454 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Wartburg, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Oak Ridge, Clinton, La Follette, Wartburg, Oliver Springs,
Jacksboro, Harriman, Caryville, Rocky Top and Norris.

This includes Interstate 75 in Tennessee between mile markers 118 and
142.

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Morgan County in east Tennessee...
West central Campbell County in east Tennessee...
Central Scott County in east Tennessee...

* Until 545 PM EDT.

* At 504 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles southwest
of Helenwood, or 13 miles southeast of Jamestown, moving east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to
mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
Oneida, Huntsville, Helenwood, Rugby, Elk Valley, Rugby State Park,
Honey Creek State Park, Royal Blue, Norma and Elgin.

This includes Interstate 75 in Tennessee between mile markers 143 and
151.
 
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR LOUDON...WESTERN BLOUNT AND NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

At 620 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southeast of
Loudon, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Maryville, Lenoir City, Alcoa, Loudon, Madisonville, Louisville,
Rockford, Eagleton Village, Vonore and Greenback.

This includes Interstate 75 in Tennessee between mile markers 73 and
80.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
 
Y'all hold onto your ass down there. Hearing 10 dead so far, and all that is going to try to come over the mountains. If it pans out like that, it will have to come down the mountain as well.
 
Did forecasters predict the rain that Middle TN got?


No, but I'll take that as confirmation. That was/is an Unusual storm. When they hit north like that, they are especially unknown. There is a Latitude that makes these storms become North Atlantic storms, and then they restrengthen. When they hit this area they are CONVERGENCE areas. It makes them unpredictable, but more wet usually. In this case it came together as it entered NY, and it is especially dangerous then, Because it comes in over the flat bay, with no friction. We learned that with Sandy.
 
No, but I'll take that as confirmation. That was/is an Unusual storm. When they hit north like that, they are especially unknown. There is a Latitude that makes these storms become North Atlantic storms, and then they restrengthen. When they hit this area they are CONVERGENCE areas. It makes them unpredictable, but more wet usually. In this case it came together as it entered NY, and it is especially dangerous then, Because it comes in over the flat bay, with no friction. We learned that with Sandy.
Check out these rain totals.

D87F9767-9DD8-4B4B-99E1-2342FCAD3965.jpeg
 
Heads up!

We need to keep an eye on the remnants of Hurricane Ida when it gets closer to here on Tuesday. With us being on the right quadrant of the system with it's current track, there is a decent chance for isolated tornadoes. Obviously, there's still a lot of uncertainty, and the tornado threat will largely depend on the track of the system and how much instability will be present.
 


Some of the areas at risk have already been hit so hard with flash flooding this year.


That is definitely another threat that we need to watch for. I expect that at least areas along and west of interstate 75 will be getting a flash flood watch issued sometime tomorrow.
 
~Severe Weather Alert~

There is a marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms for all of East TN on Tuesday.

Timing:

Early afternoon into the early evening hours.

Primary hazards:

Flash flooding is likely, especially west of interstate 75, with 2-4+ inches of rain.
A few isolated tornadoes are possible, with the greatest chances being in the southern valley and plateau.
 
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