East Tennessee Weather II

Tornado in Putnam Co. rated EF4 per WBIR from NWS. What a monster tornado.
That’s scary. Hopefully that isn’t a foreshadowing of what to expect this spring.
I just read the one in Nashville was an F3 and on the ground for 50 miles.
 
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~Severe Weather Alert~

There is a Slight chance for strong to severe thunderstorms for the Central and Northern Valley, Northeast TN, and the Plateau. Marginal risk for the Southern Valley.

Timing: First round will be this afternoon along the warm front. The main line of storms will sweep through later tonight.

Potential Hazards: Damaging winds up to 70 mph, large hail up to quarter size ( best chance in the afternoon), an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out

VK’s thoughts: There looks to be somewhat strong low level wind shear and decent instability in place, so I do think we’ll see a good number of storms reach severe levels, especially when the main line approaches tonight. I’m keeping a very close eye this afternoon, as with the warm front currently in East TN, there will be some scattered thunderstorms popping up. With that, a few supercells could appear, and that’s where we have the best chance of seeing hail (still a low risk of seeing damaging hail) and maybe an isolated tornado.
 
Update:

I got some good news. The severe threat appears to be shifting north. The SPC has downgraded the Central Valley to a marginal risk. The hope is that the stronger dynamics stay to our north so that the threat is lower. I still think there will be a few storms that hit severe levels.
 
Update:

I got some good news. The severe threat appears to be shifting north. The SPC has downgraded the Central Valley to a marginal risk. The hope is that the stronger dynamics stay to our north so that the threat is lower. I still think there will be a few storms that hit severe levels.
Can you define (and I’m not being an ass) north here? As in London Ky or more like Tazwell?
 
We got some nasty weather coming in tonight?
There is a chance. However, the highest chance is father south and west. Knoxville could still see some damaging winds and there's a very outside chance of a brief spin-up tornado.

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~Severe Weather Alert~

There’s a Slight risk for strong to severe storms across the Southern valley and Southern Plateau (Chattanooga, Cleveland, Athens, Sweetwater, etc) and a marginal risk for the Central Valley and Northern Plateau (Crossville, Jamestown, Knoxville and surrounding areas).

Timing: This evening.

Potential Hazards:

Marginal risk (Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, large hail up to quarter size is possible. Can’t rule out an isolated tornado.)

Slight risk (Damaging winds up to 70 mph, large hail up to quarter size, a couple brief isolated tornadoes are all possible)

VK’s thoughts:

Similar to recent storms, we have plenty of wind shear in place, but the amount of instability is the uncertainty. Also, how far north the warm front goes will determine the strength of these storms. I do think the worst of the storms will be towards middle TN and Alabama, but people in the southern valley really need to keep an eye on these storms.
 

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