Early line: Kentucky favored by four over the Vols in Lexingon

#76
#76
cncchris33 said:
There is no way home court is worth 10 points in college basketball. I agree it is variable depending on venue and fan support, but 10 points is enormous.

Places like Duke, UNC, UK, Michigan State, Kansas, those are places where it could tilt toward maybe 5 or 6 points, at most. 10 is crazy. You'd have to show me the math behind that one for me to buy it.
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This.
 
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#77
#77
My thoughts: Vols are a better team. Can see UK nipping them in Rupp but would expect UT to win much bigger in Knoxville. Give me UT -4 in Ktown and I’m taking Vols all day. Wouldn’t touch that spread I’m Rupp either way.
 
#78
#78
VolPack22 said:
This will be our first elite opponent since Gonzaga. Something tells me our guys are itching to be in a national spotlight game after playing all these so-so teams and prove to everyone we deserve that number 1 beside our name. This game will go down to the wire and I think it ends a lot like last year with Turner or Admiral nailing a dagger at the end. One thing I love about this team, I feel comfortable with about 4 or 5 guys taking and making the last shot of the game and that’s a great luxury to have in a game like this.
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This is actually my biggest concern. We have not played a good team in so long. The SEC is not good this year and we have played the weak side of it.
 
#79
#79
A-RodWiLks said:
If you can't see the improvement Kyle has made since last year, you've simply not been paying attention.
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If your not just a little bit disappointed with his play since conference play started you haven't been paying attention. Foul trouble and KA disappearing act have crept back up a little recently. I do agree that overall he has improved.
 
#80
#80
cncchris33 said:
There is no way home court is worth 10 points in college basketball. I agree it is variable depending on venue and fan support, but 10 points is enormous.

Places like Duke, UNC, UK, Michigan State, Kansas, those are places where it could tilt toward maybe 5 or 6 points, at most. 10 is crazy. You'd have to show me the math behind that one for me to buy it.
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from Madduxsports.com - In college basketball, there is no exact number like that, but home court advantage can be worth anywhere between 2.5 and 6 points or more depending on the venue and opponent.
 
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#81
#81
cncchris33 said:
There is no way home court is worth 10 points in college basketball. I agree it is variable depending on venue and fan support, but 10 points is enormous.

Places like Duke, UNC, UK, Michigan State, Kansas, those are places where it could tilt toward maybe 5 or 6 points, at most. 10 is crazy. You'd have to show me the math behind that one for me to buy it.
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Correct

Over the past 12 years KY has shown a home "true" advantage of 3.43 points. During that time frame TN has carried a road disadvantage of -.88 pts..........so that would put KY's home advantage at 4.31 points...............however Tennessee is playing much better on the road this year than most of the past 12. Because of the way Tennessee & Kentucky are playing, even at KY, I feel the 4 point, "point spread" is pretty spot on.

Many teams will have a home advantage of 9 points.......heck all the way up to 19 (Gonzaga); however those teams also carry an advantage on the road, which of course makes the true home advantage lower..........as it should.
 
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#82
#82
ColinS said:
If your not just a little bit disappointed with his play since conference play started you haven't been paying attention. Foul trouble and KA disappearing act have crept back up a little recently. I do agree that overall he has improved.
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His numbers out of conference and in conference are almost identical this year, he had 2 rough games but other than that has been pretty consistent.
 
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#83
#83
UT has been taking care of business over the past few weeks. Nothing spectacular, but getting it done different ways. UK has been surging. Playing as well if not better than anyone.

Gonna be an interesting test for sure. Getting "up" for that trip shouldn't be an issue no different than any other year. Playing well enough to beat them at home during their best stretch of basketball will be the tough part
 
#84
#84
Freak said:
Thoughts? The game is still nine days away, but interesting to look ahead.
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We are a better team this year than we were last year, they were a better team last year than the bunch they have this season. We are the better team, we were last season and we are this year as well. I think it'll be another double digit win for the Vols!! Yep I said it, double digits!! Our guard play is tons better than the kittens.
 
#85
#85
SweetDaddy said:
Kentucky will tell us a lot about where we stand.

If we beat them we might just be legit title contenders.

If we dont you wont want to bump into any UK fans any time soon.

This is the type of basketball games the big boys win.
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We have to beat KY to be legit? please, 1. KY is playing some good ball 2. It is at Rump, have you been there before?.......not easy 3. We are legit regardless of outcome.............geesh #1 in the country and legitimacy is weighed on one game.............I don't get some of you.
 
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#86
#86
ColinS said:
If your not just a little bit disappointed with his play since conference play started you haven't been paying attention. Foul trouble and KA disappearing act have crept back up a little recently. I do agree that overall he has improved.
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He's gotten into early foul trouble, sure... but a lot of those come from him trying to play help D near the rim after a blow by or back-cut which we are so prone to. Regardless, he's vastly improved from last year.
 
#87
#87
cncchris33 said:
There is no way home court is worth 10 points in college basketball. I agree it is variable depending on venue and fan support, but 10 points is enormous.

Places like Duke, UNC, UK, Michigan State, Kansas, those are places where it could tilt toward maybe 5 or 6 points, at most. 10 is crazy. You'd have to show me the math behind that one for me to buy it.
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My post is self explanatory. If you bet CBB you'd understand. That's how a 7-8 team at home beats a 12-3 team (same conference) straight up; then loses by 20 on the road. I've seen it happen for years. Go to vegas insider and check some team records; at home and on the road. If you really want to know. And the Math? 2+2 =4.
 
#88
#88
JohnWardForever said:
My post is self explanatory. If you bet CBB you'd understand. That's how a 7-8 team at home beats a 12-3 team (same conference) straight up; then loses by 20 on the road. I've seen it happen for years. Go to vegas insider and check some team records; at home and on the road. If you really want to know. And the Math? 2+2 =4.
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So, explain tomorrow's TN-UF line to me, then. TN -11.5. Are you telling me that Tennessee gets 10 points for homecourt, and that Vegas believes that TN is only 1.5 points better than Florida on a neutral court? I just don't buy that. We beat them by 11 on their home court. I have NEVER heard of a team getting 10 points for home court advantage. @BruinVol, care to chine in here? I know you bet on CBB, regularly.
 
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#89
#89
cncchris33 said:
So, explain tomorrow's TN-UF line to me, then. TN -11.5. Are you telling me that Tennessee gets 10 points for homecourt, and that Vegas believes that TN is only 1.5 points better than Florida on a neutral court? I just don't buy that. We beat them by 11 on their home court. I have NEVER heard of a team getting 10 points for home court advantage. @BruinVol, care to chine in here? I know you bet on CBB, regularly.
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Imo the home court is worth 3-5 pts in hoops.

It's certainly not 10
 
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#90
#90
Fwiw we were a 2-3pt favorite at florida

Now we are 11.5 but the overall strength of florida is much lower for gamblers today than it was then. Thus the spread is higher
 
#91
#91
UK = snowball


UT = Hell


I’ll let you figure it out.
 
#92
#92
I'd say the Kentucky/miss state game settles this pretty well.

Two weeks ago Kentucky was a 7.5pt favorite at home vs MSU and tomorrow are a 4pt favorite at MSU.
 
#93
#93
cncchris33 said:
So, explain tomorrow's TN-UF line to me, then. TN -11.5. Are you telling me that Tennessee gets 10 points for homecourt, and that Vegas believes that TN is only 1.5 points better than Florida on a neutral court? I just don't buy that. We beat them by 11 on their home court. I have NEVER heard of a team getting 10 points for home court advantage. @BruinVol, care to chine in here? I know you bet on CBB, regularly.
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Man. That's for betting purposes only. My Experience. My Barometer for picking pointspread winners. Just take the time and go to vegas insider and search some teams records and compare scores home and away. It's obviously not an exact science; but it works more often than not. If UT was at Uf Sat, the line would be UT-2 or 3.
 
#94
#94
BruinVol said:
I'd say the Kentucky/miss state game settles this pretty well.

Two weeks ago Kentucky was a 7.5pt favorite at home vs MSU and tomorrow are a 4pt favorite at MSU.
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And the oddsmakers saw they missed the line at UK, and adjusted. Before K went on this run, that game at msu woulda been a pick em. Bet all you can on UK.
 
#95
#95
JohnWardForever said:
And the oddsmakers saw they missed the line at UK, and adjusted. Before K went on this run, that game at msu woulda been a pick em. Bet all you can on UK.
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Your post makes no sense.

What do you mean they adjusted?

Kentucky won by 21. Adjusting would mean a lot more than a 4 pt line and even your suggestion to bet Kentucky means you see it as well...
 
#96
#96
Duke/Virginia is another easy comparison


Duke was a 3pt home favorite and now a 2pt road dog. 5pts given for home team
 
#98
#98
cncchris33 said:
That was going to be the other one I questioned him about.
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You have to look at the overall perception of the teams. Both Duke and Virginia are obviously held in high esteem at the time of both games.

I do think we will see 10pt difference in lines when we play Vandy. That line was 7-8 there and will likely be over 15 here.
 
#99
#99
BruinVol said:
You have to look at the overall perception of the teams. Both Duke and Virginia are obviously held in high esteem at the time of both games.

I do think we will see 10pt difference in lines when we play Vandy. That line was 7-8 there and will likely be over 15 here.
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True, but each team's profile has changed significantly over a month, too. That would warrant a significant shift.
 
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