Clutch is Overrated!!!

#126
#126
nbakerld said:
And here's a great case study.

Dwyane Wade averaged 6.2 rpg per 36 minutes last year. With Haslem healthy this year, they don't need him to rebound as much. This has freed Wade up to be productive in other areas:

(Per 36)
'11 = 24.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.4 spg, 1.1 bpg
'12 = 25.1 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.9 spg, 1.6 bpg

So advanced stats will tell you he's basically the same player as last year, even if someone is cutting into his rebounding totals.
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You just helped support his argument.

When a good SG has a rebounder his numbers go down. When a good SG doesnt have a rebounder his numbers go up.

You can use any stat you want, any way you want to prove or debunk a point/argument.

After wading through this entire thread the only think youve said that makes you sound like a moron is that Pau is the best player on the Lakers.:crazy:

I watched Pau for 6 years be the 'man' in Memphis and not win a single playoff game. Then he joins one of the BEST SG of all-time and wins a couple titles. Pau is a really good PF, but he is no where close to the elite status that Kobe has.

Your argument on the winning percentages with & without Kobe is ridiculous too. How many of those games did he have Shaq (another all time great) playing when he was out? The Lakers had built a good team around Kobe that can survive if Kobe is hurt or out FOR A SHORT PERIOD (notice he has only missed 95 games). But youre crazy to not see his value not only in nut crunching time, but also in high profile/high intensity situations (late game & playoffs).



I could also go grab Robert Horry's winning percentage as a player and compare to just about any one in the league right now and show you why he meant more to his team than any one ever (sarcasm). Stats can tell the truth and lie at the same time buddy.:good!:
 
#127
#127
cascade11 said:
You just helped support his argument.

When a good SG has a rebounder his numbers go down. When a good SG doesnt have a rebounder his numbers go up.

You can use any stat you want, any way you want to prove or debunk a point/argument.

After wading through this entire thread the only think youve said that makes you sound like a moron is that Pau is the best player on the Lakers.:crazy:

I watched Pau for 6 years be the 'man' in Memphis and not win a single playoff game. Then he joins one of the BEST SG of all-time and wins a couple titles. Pau is a really good PF, but he is no where close to the elite status that Kobe has.

Your argument on the winning percentages with & without Kobe is ridiculous too. How many of those games did he have Shaq (another all time great) playing when he was out? The Lakers had built a good team around Kobe that can survive if Kobe is hurt or out FOR A SHORT PERIOD (notice he has only missed 95 games). But youre crazy to not see his value not only in nut crunching time, but also in high profile/high intensity situations (late game & playoffs).

I could also go grab Robert Horry's winning percentage as a player and compare to just about any one in the league right now and show you why he meant more to his team than any one ever (sarcasm). Stats can tell the truth and lie at the same time buddy.:good!:
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He made a good argument which I'm not really refuting. It can make your rebounds go down, but it doesn't necessarily. Like I said, Wade's defensive focus was relatively more on rebounding last year, but he can afford to concentrate more on perimeter defense this year. Advanced stats reflect that, and his player rating isn't hurt by declining rebounding numbers.

Pau joined Kobe and 2 other 7 footers. The league has about 10 good 7-footers, and the Lakers had 3 of them.

As for Robert Horry's teams Win %. I'd love for you to spend the time and look that up. I'm very interested in the results. It won't yield the result you claim it will.

Yes, Kobe's team won without him because they were good, what is your point? Adding a great player to a good team should improve their record by a lot more than 6%. That means he only makes them about 5 games better per season. What's interesting is this is basically what Wins Produced will predict.

So we come to the same conclusion through 2 completely unrelated statistical measures.
 
#128
#128
Remember when Kobe carried a team featuring Smush Parker and Chris Mihms? I fail to see the significance of his career win %.

Remember last night when lebron passed the ball while Kobe dared him to shoot..and then threw the ball in on the next possession?

Yeah, that lebron is somethin else. Yay lebron. Clutch is overrated. Good thread.
 
#129
#129
Honest question- do you really believe that if the Lakers replaced Kobe with a league average player, the difference in record would only be 5 games?

Hint: No.

nbakerld said:
He made a good argument which I'm not really refuting. It can make your rebounds go down, but it doesn't necessarily. Like I said, Wade's defensive focus was relatively more on rebounding last year, but he can afford to concentrate more on perimeter defense this year. Advanced stats reflect that, and his player rating isn't hurt by declining rebounding numbers.

Pau joined Kobe and 2 other 7 footers. The league has about 10 good 7-footers, and the Lakers had 3 of them.

As for Robert Horry's teams Win %. I'd love for you to spend the time and look that up. I'm very interested in the results. It won't yield the result you claim it will.

Yes, Kobe's team won without him because they were good, what is your point? Adding a great player to a good team should improve their record by a lot more than 6%. That means he only makes them about 5 games better per season. What's interesting is this is basically what Wins Produced will predict.

So we come to the same conclusion through 2 completely unrelated statistical measures.
Click to expand...
 
#130
#130
TBrown said:
Remember when Kobe carried a team featuring Smush Parker and Chris Mihms? I fail to see the significance of his career win %.

Remember last night when lebron passed the ball while Kobe dared him to shoot..and then threw the ball in on the next possession?

Yeah, that lebron is somethin else. Yay lebron. Clutch is overrated. Good thread.
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I remember that team. Kobe carried a team to slightly above .500. If you want to credit him with that, I won't dispute it at all, even if they were the 7th best rebounding team in the NBA.

You're talking about the all-star game, brah.
 
#131
#131
TBrown said:
Honest question- do you really believe that if the Lakers replaced Kobe with a league average player, the difference in record would only be 5 games?

Hint: No.
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You give me a hint after pleading for an "honest" answer?

On average, yes, but when you look at his prime you are probably looking at close to 8-10 games per season, and they might win a title or 2 without him, but probably not.
 
#133
#133
nbakerld said:
I remember that team. Kobe carried a team to slightly above .500. If you want to credit him with that, I won't dispute it at all, even if they were the 7th best rebounding team in the NBA.

You're talking about the all-star game, brah.
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All the more reason for him to pull the trigger, he was already 6-8 from 3pt. What did he have to lose? If he takes the shot and misses it wouldn't have been as big a deal as him turning it over trying to force it to Wade. Its just yet another example of him folding on a big stage in crunch time.
 
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#134
#134
And if he hit the shot, all of you would have said it doesn't matter because it's the all-star game.

What's funny is you guys don't like data, but you use it all the time. Last night's all-star game is just one data point. If you are going to use that to evaluate Lebron, then you are in essence using stats to evaluate Lebron. The difference is I try to look at every data point. You guys pick and choose.
 
#135
#135
Surely with your intricate knowledge of advanced stats you are dominating your fantasy basketball league against mere mortals? I mean I love a good jack off to moneyball every now and then but I win my fantasy baseball leagues.
 
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#136
#136
TBrown said:
Surely with your intricate knowledge of advanced stats you are dominating your fantasy basketball league against mere mortals? I mean I love a good jack off to moneyball every now and then but I win my fantasy baseball leagues.
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Fantasy basketball is not congruent with real basketball. Jeremy Lin can turn it over 20 times in a game, and make his fantasy team better.
 
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#139
#139
Dbake005 said:
Not if... turnovers count against you in fantasy...?
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They don't. Not in my fantasy league, anyway. That was just one example. Fantasy also values FG%, not TS%. I don't think it accounts for fouls. I also contend that it doesn't properly value points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks relative to one another (assists are about 1/2 as valuable as steals according to advanced stats).
 
#141
#141
nbakerld said:
But coaches are often horrible judges of talent, IMO. So are GM's. You are assuming they are good at allocating shots to their players. And again scoring isn't everything.

A SG that only takes 10 shots and scores 15 points per game might be the best SG in the league (he could be an elite defender, distributor, and rebounder), but nobody would accept him as the best SG in the league unless he were scoring 25 or so per game.
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I understand where you are coming from, a guy like Carmelo is really just a slightly above average NBA player, all he can do is score and he has to take a ton of shots to do it. Yet, since his scoring average is so high he gets looked at like a suprestar.

This whole argument started with the Pau is greater than Kobe statement, I like to look at stats as much as the next guy but having seen them both play for years on end, there really is no comparision between the two.

They play two different positions, so it is completely unfair to use stats to determine who is better.

Instead, all of you have to do is watch, Pau is a great player but Kobe is on another level.
 
#142
#142
nbakerld said:
You think coaches and GM's are good judges of talent? Let's look at success rates for lottery picks.

My Jazz selected Gordon Hayward 30 something picks before Landry Fields. This is the most retarded move in the world, and stats would've avoided it, but this is how the league is run.
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I suppose teams should fire all scouts and just look at stat sheets to determine who to draft?
 
#143
#143
GahLee said:
I understand where you are coming from, a guy like Carmelo is really just a slightly above average NBA player, all he can do is score and he has to take a ton of shots to do it. Yet, since his scoring average is so high he gets looked at like a suprestar.

This whole argument started with the Pau is greater than Kobe statement, I like to look at stats as much as the next guy but having seen them both play for years on end, there really is no comparision between the two.

They play two different positions, so it is completely unfair to use stats to determine who is better.

Instead, all of you have to do is watch, Pau is a great player but Kobe is on another level.
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They are the same player, basically. They are good players who have a very versatile skill set. They are likely the 2 best in the league at scoring out of the double team. They both share the same problem. They are both among the league's worst in shot selection. Kobe is a better player than Melo, but they are basically the same.

I would also argue it's completely unfair to compare players from different positions based on watching the games. How do you objectively do that? "Kobe seems to be able to dribble better than Pau, but Pau is better at intimidating opponents and has more team chemistry." seems more absurd than comparing TOPG and TS%.
 
#144
#144
GahLee said:
I suppose teams should fire all scouts and just look at stat sheets to determine who to draft?
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They'd do better than they do now. If I were drafting college players, I'd look at stats first. I'd come up with a list of possible players to draft. Then I'd scout from that list. Basically you're looking for reasons why their stats won't transfer to the next level (too short, played in small conference, too slow, etc.). I'm definitely not scouting a player to see his turnaround jump shot.
 
#145
#145
nbakerld said:
They are the same player, basically. They are good players who have a very versatile skill set. They are likely the 2 best in the league at scoring out of the double team. They both share the same problem. They are both among the league's worst in shot selection. Kobe is a better player than Melo, but they are basically the same.

I would also argue it's completely unfair to compare players from different positions based on watching the games. How do you objectively do that? "Kobe seems to be able to dribble better than Pau, but Pau is better at intimidating opponents and has more team chemistry." seems more absurd than comparing TOPG and TS%.
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Melo and Kobe are not the same, they are similar in some reagrds but Kobe can play defense, Melo is a matador on the court.

Huge difference.

There is no advanced stat in the world that convince me that Pau Gasol is a better basketball player than Kobe Bryant.

It seems that you think everyone overvalues scoring, I say you undervalue it. At the end of the day, Kobe taking 20 shots and getting 25 points has yielded some amazing results.
 
#146
#146
nbakerld said:
They'd do better than they do now. If I were drafting college players, I'd look at stats first. I'd come up with a list of possible players to draft. Then I'd scout from that list. Basically you're looking for reasons why their stats won't transfer to the next level (too short, played in small conference, too slow, etc.). I'm definitely not scouting a player to see his turnaround jump shot.
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Some things can't be measured by a statistic.

Scouts/GM's look for the things you can't teach and can't see in a stat sheet.

I believe that stats are valuable but they never tell the whole story.
 
#147
#147
GahLee said:
Melo and Kobe are not the same, they are similar in some reagrds but Kobe can play defense, Melo is a matador on the court.

Huge difference.

There is no advanced stat in the world that convince me that Pau Gasol is a better basketball player than Kobe Bryant.

It seems that you think everyone overvalues scoring, I say you undervalue it. At the end of the day, Kobe taking 20 shots and getting 25 points has yielded some amazing results.
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That doesn't address the question if we are trying to establish if scoring is under/over-valued. If you're right, Kobe's 25 on 20 is the reason they won. If I'm right, they won despite Kobe's 25 on 20.

Scoring is just a part of the equation.

Winning = TS% + rebounds + net-turnovers

Kobe has always been on a very good rebounding team. Like ridiculously good. That's why his team has managed to win 60% of their games without him.
 
#148
#148
nbakerld said:
That doesn't address the question if we are trying to establish if scoring is under/over-valued. If you're right, Kobe's 25 on 20 is the reason they won. If I'm right, they won despite Kobe's 25 on 20.

Scoring is just a part of the equation.

Winning = TS% + rebounds + net-turnovers

Kobe has always been on a very good rebounding team. Like ridiculously good. That's why his team has managed to win 60% of their games without him.
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The Lakers haven't won 5 championships despite Kobe Bryant.
 
#149
#149
GahLee said:
The Lakers haven't won 5 championships despite Kobe Bryant.
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Agreed. "Despite" was a bad choice of words.

Kobe gets nowhere near any titles without his bigs. When you have one of the best rebounding teams in the league every year of your career, you had better win some titles.

Look right now:

Of the 10 best teams in the league, 7 are top 10 in rebound differential. Only one of the top 10 rebounding teams is in the bottom half of the league (Cleveland - 7th in rebounding, 21st in record).

There are basically 4 guards in NBA history who get credit with leading their teams to NBA titles (MJ, Magic, Isiah, and Kobe). All 4 of them enjoyed teammates who absolutely dominated the boards. Kobe and Magic are the only 2 of the group who enjoyed dominant post-scoring. Magic was a facilitator so that works to his credit.
 
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