All things STOCKS

[Thunder Good-Oil]

No. If you ended SS taxes, ended carried interest and lowered defense spending increase to 10%, you could pay for it under reconciliation...

It would take 60% for cloture to send to a final vote where 51 votes would end it.

What doesn’t make sense is that Trump wants to close the loophole and the Ds want to close the loophole. But the Senate Rs apparently are close to unanimous wanting to continue treating it as capital gains instead of compensation.

I own CG, BX, BLK, APO, KKR, and MS largely because PE, hedge funds, and other alternative investment managers seem to make up the rules.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I don’t pay much attention to how the sausage is made. I don’t try to get ahead of the crowd like ST traders would want to when speculating to that degree. I’m more interested in getting positioned for the LT and medium term.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

It would take 60% for cloture to send to a final vote where 51 votes would end it.

What doesn’t make sense is that Trump wants to close the loophole and the Ds want to close the loophole. But the Senate Rs apparently are close to unanimous wanting to continue treating it as capital gains instead of compensation.

I own CG, BX, BLK, APO, KKR, and MS largely because PE, hedge funds, and other alternative investment managers seem to make up the rules.

Dont think you need cloture if you can wrap it up in the reconciliation bill. Of course, your bill has to "reconcile". Carried interest is a revenue raiser so its easy to include in reconciliation. Too many lobbyists though.

Nontax SS will be hard to get into reconciliation unless they raise debt ceiling by 6T (instead of 5T) or decrease the increase in defense spending from 18% to 7% per year. Once again, defense lobbyists pay more than really old people...

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Elimination of Carried interest was in original TCJA reconciliation framework but got gutted once in Senate. The compromise was to increase LT holding period to 3 yrs for carried interest treatment...

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Dont think you need cloture if you can wrap it up in the reconciliation bill. Of course, your bill has to "reconcile". Carried interest is a revenue raiser so its easy to include in reconciliation. Too many lobbyists though.

Nontax SS will be hard to get into reconciliation unless they raise debt ceiling by 6T (instead of 5T) or decrease the increase in defense spending from 18% to 7% per year. Once again, defense lobbyists pay more than really old people...

The element opposing eliminating the loophole will filibuster and it would take 60% to move past that hurdle. It still doesn’t make sense to me that the Ds and Trump are aligned together on ending the carried interest loophole but the Rs aren’t going to help.

I don’t know what the alliances are on taxing SS benefits or not. There might be some cooperation at some point though to end the cap on the 6.2% x2 (same as the 1.45% for Medicare) but not in this cycle. The trust fund surplus apparently has to be completely eliminated before anybody takes the initiative to do something to fix SS.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Only needs 50 plus Vance under reconciliation. The Senate Rs alredy have an agreed upon framework to increase debt ceiling by 5T to get these cuts plus huge defense spending increase under reconciliation....

I mistimed the events, but the bigger thought / question.

If and when the big and beautiful bill passes, I'm thinking the stock market will have a big day? They seem to like those type of milestones.

 

[walkenvol]

Interesting discussion on the potential budget proposals. A bit difficult to understand the impact of the changes without actual numbers from the individual proposals. The carried interest seems like it would affect relatively few people and bring in a relatively low amount of additional tax revenue although there’s no reason for it in the first place. Seems like there’s lots of opportunity for compromise on not taxing SS like raising the allowable AGI before SS is taxable or decreasing the 85% down some amount. Glad they ditched the no tax on tips and OT. 15% more on defense seems irresponsible to me as there’s so much opportunity for the military to be more efficient - seems like a bone to the IMC. One thing seems certain - they have to get a handle on runaway deficit spending or we all will suffer the consequences.

 

[walkenvol]

The element opposing eliminating the loophole will filibuster and it would take 60% to move past that hurdle. It still doesn’t make sense to me that the Ds and Trump are aligned together on ending the carried interest loophole but the Rs aren’t going to help.

I don’t know what the alliances are on taxing SS benefits or not. There might be some cooperation at some point though to end the cap on the 6.2% x2 (same as the 1.45% for Medicare) but not in this cycle. The trust fund surplus apparently has to be completely eliminated before anybody takes the initiative to do something to fix SS.

Remove the cap on SS income contributions and eliminate the spousal benefit and the fund will be in great shape. Also, the disability benefits to those who haven’t paid in to earn the benefit should be part of Medicaid not SS. Also, when they raised the FRA to 67, why didn’t the early withdrawal age rise to 64? Treat SS as an earned retirement benefit that it was designed to be and we wouldn’t keep hearing about problems there. Between Medicare, Medicaid, and SS, SS is far far easier to get to a healthy place.

 

[mrorange211]

10Y at 4.493. Good news on that front. I bought some VOOG and VTI yesterday.

 

[mrorange211]

10Y at 4.493. Good news on that front. I bought some VOOG and VTI yesterday.

Lol

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Remove the cap on SS income contributions and eliminate the spousal benefit and the fund will be in great shape. Also, the disability benefits to those who haven’t paid in to earn the benefit should be part of Medicaid not SS. Also, when they raised the FRA to 67, why didn’t the early withdrawal age rise to 64? Treat SS as an earned retirement benefit that it was designed to be and we wouldn’t keep hearing about problems there. Between Medicare, Medicaid, and SS, SS is far far easier to get to a healthy place.

could be wrong, but unless they slid up the tables when going from the 65 to ultimately 67 FRA, it’s not generating a lot of additional revenue. If they’re the same brackets then the additional revenue only comes from a bit more from those that (1) continue to work, (2) exceed the income limit, and (3) elect an FRA earlier than 67. But maybe with the wave of Boomers hitting that age it does add up to significant revenue.

I’m speculating, but as far as keeping the early retirement age at 62 instead of going to 64, maybe the actuarial tables work out more favorably for the government when workers take the early retirement options and getting more individuals locked in at the lower benefit amounts is favorable math. I guess it kind of depends on whether or not the actual average life expectancy of those in their 60s creeps up from around 80 into their late 80s and older.

I just wish that they’d put together a plan and start phasing it in ASAP rather than having all of the adjustments hitting all at once.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Interesting discussion on the potential budget proposals. A bit difficult to understand the impact of the changes without actual numbers from the individual proposals. The carried interest seems like it would affect relatively few people and bring in a relatively low amount of additional tax revenue although there’s no reason for it in the first place. Seems like there’s lots of opportunity for compromise on not taxing SS like raising the allowable AGI before SS is taxable or decreasing the 85% down some amount. Glad they ditched the no tax on tips and OT. 15% more on defense seems irresponsible to me as there’s so much opportunity for the military to be more efficient - seems like a bone to the IMC. One thing seems certain - they have to get a handle on runaway deficit spending or we all will suffer the consequences.

I agree that closing the carried interest loophole would have little effect on the big picture. It would be good optics though if more than a very small percentage of the voting public had any idea what it is. I’d be surprised if more than 5% of US citizens know what it is. Maybe closer to 1% or 2%. Which could also explain why it isn’t much of an issue that Trump is fighting for.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

PLTR execs have sold about $115 million worth of their shares. That’s a bunch, but apparently it was a lot to do with tax planning.

Palantir CEO Alex Karp sells more than $50 million in stock

Chief Technology Officer Shyam Sankar, co-founder and president Stephen Cohen and other executives also dumped millions worth of shares.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

And PLTR is actually up 1.5% today. That’s a great sign that the shares aren’t getting pummeled after that much insider selling. And ahead of a 3 day weekend. Still, 200x revenue is 3, 4, or 5 times higher than comparable tech high fliers were in their early phases of growth.

I ought to be selling some covered calls here, but would rather do that north of $140.

 

[walkenvol]

could be wrong, but unless they slid up the tables when going from the 65 to ultimately 67 FRA, it’s not generating a lot of additional revenue. If they’re the same brackets then the additional revenue only comes from a bit more from those that (1) continue to work, (2) exceed the income limit, and (3) elect an FRA earlier than 67. But maybe with the wave of Boomers hitting that age it does add up to significant revenue.

I’m speculating, but as far as keeping the early retirement age at 62 instead of going to 64, maybe the actuarial tables work out more favorably for the government when workers take the early retirement options and getting more individuals locked in at the lower benefit amounts is favorable math. I guess it kind of depends on whether or not the actual average life expectancy of those in their 60s creeps up from around 80 into their late 80s and older.

I just wish that they’d put together a plan and start phasing it in ASAP rather than having all of the adjustments hitting all at once.

I’m thinking your options 2&3 assuming lots of folks are retiring with substantial pretax savings. If I’m following the 4% withdrawal plan.and have $3-4 million in a 401K then I’m getting taxed on $120K there. Add in $40K of SS along with any pensions or annuities and you would pretty quickly exceed $200K taxable income in retirement.

Maybe your right on the actuarial table with keeping the 62 early withdrawal.

 

[walkenvol]

I agree that closing the carried interest loophole would have little effect on the big picture. It would be good optics though if more than a very small percentage of the voting public had any idea what it is. I’d be surprised if more than 5% of US citizens know what it is. Maybe closer to 1% or 2%. Which could also explain why it isn’t much of an issue that Trump is fighting for.

I had to look it up myself as I didn’t know

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I had to look it up myself as I didn’t know

Stuff like that is why the tax code is so enormous. Those people aren’t using their own capital yet they get a special provision with the long term gain tax advantage. Bad optics, but closing that loophole alone isn’t going to add a material amount to tax revenue. However taking everything together, like adding what DOGE is finding, and maybe there’d be a noticeable improvement getting from budgetary deficits to a surplus. Or at least slowing the rate of growth of the national debt.

Tariff disruptions, interest rates, inflation, etc are short term issues to address that impact investments. The national debt problem has been going on for 50 years. It’s why I’d like to find alternatives to US based equities, but the US is still tge global economic leader. Bitcoin (or other CCs), metals, commodities, debt, utilities, FOREX, and other options just aren’t all that attractive to me.

 

[Vol737]

Trump pushed back the 50% tariffs on the EU this evening to July 1. Going to watch the market response this week. If we get a big run back up, I may take 90% or so of my money off the table assuming I get back to a certain number and sit tight for a while. This is creating a tough environment, no clarity. Maybe just put it in multiple CD ladders at 4.5 to 5% avg annual yield for the next year.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Trump pushed back the 50% tariffs on the EU this evening to July 1. Going to watch the market response this week. If we get a big run back up, I may take 90% or so of my money off the table assuming I get back to a certain number and sit tight for a while. This is creating a tough environment, no clarity. Maybe just put it in multiple CD ladders at 4.5 to 5% avg annual yield for the next year.

He’s doing a poor job of manipulating the market. Pushed it back in the MIDDLE of a holiday weekend. Sheesh, the billionaires must be mad.

 

[UTSuave’]

Trump pushed back the 50% tariffs on the EU this evening to July 1. Going to watch the market response this week. If we get a big run back up, I may take 90% or so of my money off the table assuming I get back to a certain number and sit tight for a while. This is creating a tough environment, no clarity. Maybe just put it in multiple CD ladders at 4.5 to 5% avg annual yield for the next year.

June 9th

 

[UTSuave’]

He’s doing a poor job of manipulating the market. Pushed it back in the MIDDLE of a holiday weekend. Sheesh, the billionaires must be mad.

In times like this with unsettling markets what’s your recommendation on holding or selling?..what % gain do you set for yourself before pulling out.…I’ve read your input a lot and I’ve applied it to my own methods of investing and it’s working..I’m fairly green on the stock investing world so I’m learning…any insight you have is much appreciated @Thunder Good-Oil

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

In times like this with unsettling markets what’s your recommendation on holding or selling?..what % gain do you set for yourself before pulling out.…I’ve read your input a lot and I’ve applied it to my own methods of investing and it’s working..I’m fairly green on the stock investing world so I’m learning…any insight you have is much appreciated @Thunder Good-Oil

I generally buy and hold for the long term. I hold way too many individual stocks and ETFs than most investment advisors typically recommend. Unless you’re concentrated in a certain segment or company, if you have too many stocks and ETFs you get to the point where it’s just mirroring a broad index ETF.

But where I am right now, I have winners that I’m letting run. This throws the portfolio out of balance and the traditional advisors recommend selling a portion of stocks that have run up and rebalancing by replacing some percentage of winners with an under represented sector or style of investment.

With the losers that I’m sitting on right now I plan to get help from a tax professional before harvesting the loses. I want to convert some traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs, but don’t know all of the strategies. If I include charities as beneficiaries in my estate then I’ll leave those investments in traditional IRAs to them. They don’t pay income/capital gains taxes.

So with those stocks in the middle, with average or mediocre returns, I am looking into bailing out.

I haven’t sold many covered calls. But I’ll probably do more of that with stocks that I’m indifferent about keeping. Same sell strategy as setting sell limit orders on the underlying shares of stock without using options contracts, but I’ll collect a little bit of cash on shares that fall in value and move away from my limit price/stock option strike price as the options contracts fall in value.

So to answer your question, I don’t set exit prices for stocks. I do when I sell stock options since the time remaining on my contracts is usually 1-4 weeks when I sell them. When selling options, the potential profits are capped so I will decide a percentage for when to possibly get out and lock in a gain. I raise the percentage as it gets closer to the options expiration dates. I might take a 50% profit for a day or two immediately after opening the short position, then maybe bump it up to 75% with about a week remaining, and if the contracts fall considerably adjust to the 90s or maybe cancel the options buy order entirely - even though the possible additional profits are limited.

So I think it’s a good idea to let winners run. Especially when the stocks are solid companies like Costco, Home Depot, Amazon, Apple, Dow 30 components, the top S&P 500 or NASDAQ 100 stocks, etc.

There’s a popular school of thought to use stop loss limit orders to avoid riding a stock way down. Cutting loses. I’ve never used stop limits. But I’m not a short term trader outside of options or maybe selling stocks that have a quick run up immediately after having bought the new shares.

When to sell is probably the most difficult decision investors make. You’ll never consistently buy at the bottom and sell at the top.

When to sell depends a lot on the person. Patience is a big consideration. Risk tolerance as well. The wife’s risk tolerance. Age. Goals or purposes for being involved. Taxes too. Type of account (IRA, Roth IRA, taxable). Then news and earnings releases combine with all of those factors. Shares are going to be fluctuating as that information hits.

Trading and investing can be very different concepts. I’m not as much into stock trading as I am looking for great companies or other good investment ideas to own for a long time. I might throw around talking points on VN for discussion about some quick trades, but most of what I do is long term oriented and not that interesting. Like Bitcoin and MicroStrategy or companies that have moved up a lot (PLTR and NVDA) or companies that have screwed up and stumbled (BA, DIS, SMCI).

If I could go back in time I’d avoid buying some of the smaller, unproven companies that I’ve owned. Buy quality companies - especially if your time frame is decades long.

High frequency trading is something that I avoid. Don’t bother with penny stocks. I use some margin, but not as recklessly as I did in the late 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s.

Don’t own too much stock in a company that you work for. Enron ruined many people’s lives that had their retirement saving in Enron stock. They lost their jobs AND their investments. Diversifying is important. Probably THE most important concept early on when building up wealth.

 

[Vol737]

June 9th

Actually, reading July 9th in an article this morning. Thought the first one I read said July 1. Regardless, this just up ends any certainty with this whipsawing. I’m dizzy.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Actually, reading July 9th in an article this morning. Thought the first one I read said July 1. Regardless, this just up ends any certainty with this whipsawing. I’m dizzy.

The dates will keep changing. Except for maybe China. But the markets will move on the announcements. So this week could be a good one. Especially after the back half of last week didn’t do anything.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Futures are all up at least 1%. 1.4% for the NASDAQ.

Only US markets are closed today.