All things STOCKS

#18,002
#18,002
Jax_Vol said:
With the Trumpster postponing the EU Massive tariffs, I would guess that tomorrow will be a big up day in general for stocks
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At some point you’d think anything tariff related is going to be nothing burgers. Maybe we need to pay attention to each group independently.

Europe. Allies that we don’t need to worry too much about. I think what we want there is cooperation on various things. They don’t need to be buying energy from Russia while everybody wants to see the fighting end. Same with Iran. We have a common goal there. No nukes.

Mexico. We want their labor. But there’s too much lawless crap like fangs, human trafficking, and Fentanyl that they can do better with.

Japan. Huge economy. They can help keep China’s military threat in check. They’re good business partners.

China. They’ll never stop lying and cheating. We need to keep shifting away from them.

The rest of Asia. They are a good alternative for some of what we’re doing in China. We do need to build up our chip making capacity here instead of having so much of it in Taiwan. Taiwan Semi is responding by building manufacturing in the US. But it’s early on for that. I think that Foxconn kind of over promised and has underdelivered. I haven’t kept up with how their US investments have progressed.

It’s really not a tariff war IMO. We’re mostly leveraging access to US consumers. And there are different objectives with each group.

Several don’t want our food and agriculture products. Instead of demanding reciprocal trades, maybe we ought to move away from feeding our population so much garbage. I wish that our representatives would listen to a lot of what JFK, Jr. is preaching. Obesity. Diabetes. Heart disease. Cancer. We need better food. Changing those bad habits saves the government a lot of Medicare and Medicaid spending. But perhaps it makes the Social Security deficits much worse if people weren’t dying off as soon.

Tariff/trade rant over.
 
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#18,003
#18,003
Thunder Good-Oil said:
At some point you’d think anything tariff related is going to be nothing burgers. Maybe we need to pay attention to each group independently.

Europe. Allies that we don’t need to worry too much about. I think what we want there is cooperation on various things. They don’t need to be buying energy from Russia while everybody wants to see the fighting end. Same with Iran. We have a common goal there. No nukes.

Mexico. We want their labor. But there’s too much lawless crap like fangs, human trafficking, and Fentanyl that they can do better with.

Japan. Huge economy. They can help keep China’s military threat in check. They’re good business partners.

China. They’ll never stop lying and cheating. We need to keep shifting away from them.

The rest of Asia. They are a good alternative for some of what we’re doing in China. We do need to build up our chip making capacity here instead of having so much of it in Taiwan. Taiwan Semi is responding by building manufacturing in the US. But it’s early on for that. I think that Foxconn kind of over promised and has underdelivered. I haven’t kept up with how their US investments have progressed.

It’s really not a tariff war IMO. We’re mostly leveraging access to US consumers. And there are different objectives with each group.

Several don’t want our food and agriculture products. Instead of demanding reciprocal trades, maybe we ought to move away from feeding our population so much garbage. I wish that our representatives would listen to a lot of what JFK, Jr. is preaching. Obesity. Diabetes. Heart disease. Cancer. We need better food. Changing those bad habits saves the government a lot of Medicare and Medicaid spending. But perhaps it makes the Social Security deficits much worse if people weren’t dying off as soon.

Tariff/trade rant over.
Click to expand...
Right...been a long time, but at some point, I read something about a president who did the tariff thing in 1890's or such. Not a new idea.

Just a shell game I think, whatever.

But in regard to the stock market, it perhaps impacts perception. And that is a piece of the puzzle for the various short term trading games.
 
#18,004
#18,004
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I generally buy and hold for the long term. I hold way too many individual stocks and ETFs than most investment advisors typically recommend. Unless you’re concentrated in a certain segment or company, if you have too many stocks and ETFs you get to the point where it’s just mirroring a broad index ETF.

But where I am right now, I have winners that I’m letting run. This throws the portfolio out of balance and the traditional advisors recommend selling a portion of stocks that have run up and rebalancing by replacing some percentage of winners with an under represented sector or style of investment.

With the losers that I’m sitting on right now I plan to get help from a tax professional before harvesting the loses. I want to convert some traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs, but don’t know all of the strategies. If I include charities as beneficiaries in my estate then I might leave those investments in traditional IRAs.

So with those stocks in the middle, with average of mediocre returns, I am looking into bailing out.

I haven’t sold many covered calls. But I’ll probably do more of that with stocks that I’m indifferent about keeping. Same sell strategy as setting sell limit orders on the underlying shares of stock without using options contracts, but I’ll collect a little bit of cash on shares that fall in value and move away from my limit price/stock option strike price as the options contracts fall in value.

So to answer your question, I don’t set exit prices for stocks. I do when I sell stock options since the time remaining on my contracts is usually 1-4 weeks when I sell them. When selling options, the potential profits are capped so I will decide a percentage for when to possibly get out and lock in a gain. I raise the percentage as it gets closer to the options expiration dates. I might take a 50% profit for a day or two immediately after opening the short position, then maybe bump it up to 75% with about a week remaining, and if the contracts fall considerably adjust to the 90s or maybe cancel the options buy order entirely - even though the possible additional profits are limited.

So I think it’s a good idea to let winners run. Especially when the stocks are solid companies like Costco, Home Depot, Amazon, Apple, Dow 30 components, the top S&P 500 or NASDAQ 100 stocks, etc.

There’s a popular school of thought to use stop loss limit orders to avoid riding a stock way down. Cutting loses. I’ve never used stop limits. But I’m not a short term trader outside of options or maybe selling stocks that have a quick run up immediately after having bought the new shares.

When to sell is probably the most difficult decision investors make. You’ll never consistently buy at the bottom and sell at the top.

When to sell depends a lot on the person. Patience is a big consideration. Risk tolerance as well. The wife’s risk tolerance. Age. Goals or purposes for being involved. Taxes too. Type of account (IRA, Roth IRA, taxable). Then news and earnings releases combine with all of those factors. Shares are going to be fluctuating as that information hits.

Trading and investing can be very different concepts. I’m not as much into stock trading as I am looking for great companies or other good investment ideas to own for a long time. I might throw around talking points on VN for discussion about some quick trades, but most of what I do is long term oriented and not that interesting. Like Bitcoin and MicroStrategy or companies that have moved up a lot (PLTR and NVDA) or companies that have screwed up and stumbled (BA, DIS, SMCI).

If I could go back in time I’d avoid buying some of the smaller, unproven companies that I’ve owned. Buy quality companies - especially if your time frame is decades long.

High frequency trading is something that I avoid. Don’t bother with penny stocks. I use some margin, but not as recklessly as I did in the late 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s.

Don’t own too much stock in a company tgat you work for. Enron ruined many people’s lives tgat had their retirement saving in Enron stock. They lost their jobs AND their investments. Diversifying is important. Probably THE most important concept early in when building up wealth.
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I really appreciate you taking the time writing that truly…I’m sure it took a while…keep us informed thunder you know your stuff..thank you again
 
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#18,006
#18,006
Thunder Good-Oil said:
At some point you’d think anything tariff related is going to be nothing burgers. Maybe we need to pay attention to each group independently.

Europe. Allies that we don’t need to worry too much about. I think what we want there is cooperation on various things. They don’t need to be buying energy from Russia while everybody wants to see the fighting end. Same with Iran. We have a common goal there. No nukes.

Mexico. We want their labor. But there’s too much lawless crap like fangs, human trafficking, and Fentanyl that they can do better with.

Japan. Huge economy. They can help keep China’s military threat in check. They’re good business partners.

China. They’ll never stop lying and cheating. We need to keep shifting away from them.

The rest of Asia. They are a good alternative for some of what we’re doing in China. We do need to build up our chip making capacity here instead of having so much of it in Taiwan. Taiwan Semi is responding by building manufacturing in the US. But it’s early on for that. I think that Foxconn kind of over promised and has underdelivered. I haven’t kept up with how their US investments have progressed.

It’s really not a tariff war IMO. We’re mostly leveraging access to US consumers. And there are different objectives with each group.

Several don’t want our food and agriculture products. Instead of demanding reciprocal trades, maybe we ought to move away from feeding our population so much garbage. I wish that our representatives would listen to a lot of what JFK, Jr. is preaching. Obesity. Diabetes. Heart disease. Cancer. We need better food. Changing those bad habits saves the government a lot of Medicare and Medicaid spending. But perhaps it makes the Social Security deficits much worse if people weren’t dying off as soon.

Tariff/trade rant over.
Click to expand...
With respect to the EU, it also needs to quit using all the US tech companies as its personal piggy bank with all the BS lawsuits/regulatory rulings.

Taiwan Semiconductor is now up to 6 planned FAB plants in the Phoenix area.
 
#18,007
#18,007
Vol423 said:
With respect to the EU, it also needs to quit using all the US tech companies as its personal piggy bank with all the BS lawsuits/regulatory rulings.

Taiwan Semiconductor is now up to 6 planned FAB plants in the Phoenix area.
Click to expand...

They seem harsher over there as far as regulations and denials based on anti-competitive hoops to get through. I am glad that the UK is moving away from the EU gang though.

I don’t blame them on putting restrictions on food. Our big ag industry is too heavily aligned with big pharma, chemicals, fertilizers, insecticides, herbicides, etc. Bottom lines dictate policy over good health and environment. Too much manipulation by lobbyists.

Somebody is investing heavily in Ohio, too. Maybe Intel.
 
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#18,008
#18,008
If you just go to Europe and walk around a look at people, you can see the they aren't eating American food. They eat really rich food, but nobody's fat.
 
#18,009
#18,009
Dow futures up 400 points. I am going to create a position in Realty Income ticker O today. Moving my portfolio to a more
dividend approach and less tech heavy
 
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#18,010
#18,010
Firebirdparts said:
If you just go to Europe and walk around a look at people, you can see the they aren't eating American food. They eat really rich food, but nobody's fat.
Click to expand...
Quality and quantity.
People used to get exercise. No need for a gym. Kids ran all over town, but "be home for supper".
Parts of Europe are on a slippery slope though.
 
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#18,012
#18,012
BigOrangeMojo said:
Target blamed uncertainty for tarrifs on losing market share in most categories and sales decline.

That is some of the stupidest, most non-sensical BS Ive heard....
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That stock will be a screaming buy at some point. It is interesting that despite that horrible report the stock didn't really do any more technical damage. It was down but didn't make or almost make a new low; it's still in the range it's been in since April. It's also all the way back to the top end of the trading range it was in from 2015 to 2019.

I know they currently have a lot of internal operation problems, but they still have a great brand. Women (especially younger and more affluent women) still love it.
 
#18,013
#18,013
05_never_again said:
That stock will be a screaming buy at some point. It is interesting that despite that horrible report the stock didn't really do any more technical damage. It was down but didn't make or almost make a new low; it's still in the range it's been in since April. It's also all the way back to the top end of the trading range it was in from 2015 to 2019.

I know they currently have a lot of internal operation problems, but they still have a great brand. Women (especially younger and more affluent women) still love it.
Click to expand...

I think everyone knows the next move here. Target firing Cornell's expected replacement is the corporate equivalent of the coach on the hot seat firing a long-term coordinator. I think that's the only thing that prevented a fall into the 80s...

Stock runs into 110s at least the Cornell steps down. Management issues are running deep here...
 
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#18,017
#18,017
Vol423 said:
Nvidia earnings after the close tomorrow. That will likely set the tone for the rest of the week.
Click to expand...

NVDA doesn’t seem to be in the news nearly as much over the last month or so versus the first first 4 months this year.

But:

www.investopedia.com

Why Nvidia Is a Morgan Stanley 'Top Pick' Ahead of Earnings

Morgan Stanley named Nvidia its "top pick" among semiconductor stocks Tuesday, a day before the chipmaker's expected earnings release, despite near-term concern over sales to China.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
 
#18,020
#18,020
I tried to sell some 5/31 SMCI covered calls yesterday. I should have executed at the market value. Not only price degradation by being one day closer to expiration, but the underlying shares are also down today. Could have been free money, but I was either too greedy or playing it too safe.

I still can’t convince myself to short some PLTR covered calls. Logical thinking is saying to sell a few contracts. But where’s it going to top out?
 
#18,021
#18,021
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I tried to sell some 5/31 SMCI covered calls yesterday. I should have executed at the market value. Not only price degradation by being one day closer to expiration, but the underlying shares are also down today. Could have been free money, but I was either too greedy or playing it too safe.

I still can’t convince myself to short some PLTR covered calls. Logical thinking is saying to sell a few contracts. But where’s it going to top out?
Click to expand...
You play a whole different game than me.

However, I am very familiar with PLTR.

Are you thinking their stock price goes up or down?

Do know enough to realize that may make no difference since you are only making a short-term trade.
 
#18,022
#18,022
Tarriff stuff has to be a downer for this afternoons NVDA earnings report / forecast.

Is that the general line of thought?
 
#18,025
#18,025
Jax_Vol said:
Tarriff stuff has to be a downer for this afternoons NVDA earnings report / forecast.

Is that the general line of thought?
Click to expand...
Yup...knew that was all going to skydive off the cliff in final 30 minutes.

No possible way this NVDA earnings release can be positive. Simply terrible timing.
 
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