All things STOCKS

[mrorange211]

Ha, small world. I went to Publix Pharmacy today to get a couple of vaccines. The Pharmacist gave me the shots, and I asked him "what is your accent". He replied "Egypt" . We talked for about 5 minutes. He is from southern Egypt.

There's a few Egyptians i interact with semi-regularly in Tennessee. They all love America and are super easy to talk to/nice. Anecdotal obviously but still cool

 

[Jax_Vol]

Thunder..

How do you feel about beat down commercial real estate and/or REIT's?

Stock Symbol CDP is a good example. Hard to gauge if Elon's DOGE lay off plan is going to cause Gov't Agencies to terminate their leases?

I have a feeling everyone is just going to spread out more...lol

 

[05_never_again]

There's a few Egyptians i interact with semi-regularly in Tennessee. They all love America and are super easy to talk to/nice. Anecdotal obviously but still cool

Most people who don't like the US are people who have lived here their whole life and perhaps have never been outside the country.

If you've moved here voluntarily, you probably like the place.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Most people who don't like the US are people who have lived here there whole life and perhaps have never been outside the country.

If you've moved here voluntarily, you probably like the place.

Good point!

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Thunder..

How do you feel about beat down commercial real estate and/or REIT's?

Stock Symbol CDP is a good example. Hard to gauge if Elon's DOGE lay off plan is going to cause Gov't Agencies to terminate their leases?

I have a feeling everyone is just going to spread out more...lol

I had a long reply about 90% completed and a dam banner ad refreshed and blew it out. I forgot to save it since VN had been stable for a while.

Trying to remember some of my points… REIT management is very important. Real estate is highly tied in with the tax advantages. The housing trend could be to shift back to suburban sprawl. Although the Millennials are a very different demo. Many don't even operate vehicles.

Commercial and offices will always be in the mix. But it’s a balancing act. Supply and demand. By location. The general needs are housing and e-commerce related warehousing/logistics and soon production. The government could be flooding some markets by unloading unneeded office capacity (working from home, telecommuting, downsizing government). This is why high quality management is critical. You can no longer just slap up buildings anywhere like in the past when developers could simply copy what the next town over is doing. Management needs to really know the “landscape” as far as demographics and supply.

There are some interesting REITs. Broadcast/wireless towers. Cold storage. Parking (what happens here with robo taxis). Triple net leasors with well capitalizing national leasees.

I like a couple of non-REIT real estate companies. McDonald’s (MCD) holds prime spots in nearly every successful commercial district. Blackstone (BX) is no longer a REIT, but operates in the space.

 

[Jax_Vol]

I had a long reply about 90% completed and a dam banner ad refreshed and blew it out. I forgot to save it since VN had been stable for a while.

Trying to remember some of my points… REIT management is very important. Real estate is highly tied in with the tax advantages. The housing trend could be to shift back to suburban sprawl. Although the Millennials are a very different demo. Many don't even operate vehicles.

Commercial and offices will always be in the mix. But it’s a balancing act. Supply and demand. By location. The general needs are housing and e-commerce related warehousing/logistics and soon production. The government could be flooding some markets by unloading unneeded office capacity (working from home, telecommuting, downsizing government). This is why high quality management is critical. You can no longer just slap up buildings anywhere like in the past when developers could simply copy what the next town over is doing. Management needs to really know the “landscape” as far as demographics and supply.

There are some interesting REITs. Broadcast/wireless towers. Cold storage. Parking (what happens here with robo taxis). Triple net leasors with well capitalizing national leasees.

I like a couple of non-REIT real estate companies. McDonald’s (MCD) holds prime spots in nearly every successful commercial district. Blackstone (BX) is no longer a REIT, but operates in the space.

Those ads...

Yes, I concur with your thoughts. People have been selling selling selling all year. With the right management, I think some are oversold at this point.

But, hard to read with malls closing, people moving out of DC, mixed against return to work stuff. Very dicey.

I'm trying some of that CDP for awhile. Has a dividend at end of June, so probably sell off in July.

Tried Simon Properties a decade ago and lost my butt on one.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Those ads...

Yes, I concur with your thoughts. People have been selling selling selling all year. With the right management, I think some are oversold at this point.

But, hard to read with malls closing, people moving out of DC, mixed against return to work stuff. Very dicey.

I'm trying some of that CDP for awhile. Has a dividend at end of June, so probably sell off in July.

Tried Simon Properties a decade ago and lost my butt on one.

I thought that Amazon should have picked up the real estate pieces after Sears was forced to shut down. It would have given them an alternative for customers to pickup packages. I guess that retro fitting is more expensive than just knocking everything down and slapping up new construction which would precisely match the needs. Amazon’s business probably doesn’t thrive if anything sits in a warehouse rather than continuously flowing so old retail spaces probably fail to meet their needs.

Maybe you caught Simon at an unfortunate time. Bricks and mortar were smashed by online retailing. Plus the Great Recession was another major disruption in that time frame.

Interest rates and tax policy are huge factors. If interest rates fall, REITs are more attractive as an alternative fixed income investment to holding debt. Plus REITs benefit with the lower costs from lower interest rates. Also, lower interest rates creates more demand and drives up real estate prices.

 

[Jax_Vol]

I thought that Amazon should have picked up the real estate pieces after Sears was forced to shut down. It would have given them an alternative for customers to pickup packages. I guess that retro fitting is more expensive than just knocking everything down and slapping up new construction which would precisely match the needs. Amazon’s business probably doesn’t thrive if anything sits in a warehouse rather than continuously flowing so old retail spaces probably fail to meet their needs.

Maybe you caught Simon at an unfortunate time. Bricks and mortar were smashed by online retailing. Plus the Great Recession was another major disruption in that time frame.

Interest rates and tax policy are huge factors. If interest rates fall, REITs are more attractive as an alternative fixed income investment to holding debt. Plus REITs benefit with the lower costs from lower interest rates. Also, lower interest rates creates more demand and drives up real estate prices.

Yes, I caught Simon at a bad time and didn't ride it out long enough. Real Estate is like oil trading for me. People make money on it, but too confusing for me. The tech and occasional health in/out suffice.

Looks like Trumpster is going to push J-Pow out the door. Despite his speech on Tuesday morning, he will probably lower rates sooner than later. So, yeah...that will help all real estate.

The private sector is currently locked up with first time buyers unwilling to pay 7% or whatever. Should be better by next spring.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

I do kinda like MAA in this space....

It has been beat up some this year

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Yes, I caught Simon at a bad time and didn't ride it out long enough. Real Estate is like oil trading for me. People make money on it, but too confusing for me. The tech and occasional health in/out suffice.

Looks like Trumpster is going to push J-Pow out the door. Despite his speech on Tuesday morning, he will probably lower rates sooner than later. So, yeah...that will help all real estate.

The private sector is currently locked up with first time buyers unwilling to pay 7% or whatever. Should be better by next spring.

Powell still has almost a year left in his term. Trump is throwing around names pretty early.

It does seem like things have flipped from years ago. The Fed wasn’t really determining interest rates but were instead just following what the debt markets had already established. But now with $36T in ND the Fed swings a big stick. A 1% rate cut on $36 trillion can save the treasury hundreds of billions. A 3% or 4% cut (won’t happen) nearly balances the budget if all of the bonds could be called.

Too bad it’s now a pissing match with two huge egos needing to be stroked.

I don’t disagree with the FR board waiting right now. The tariffs need to work their way through the economy and we need to see if it’s accepted as a new normalcy and how they affect the economy. It wouldn’t be a bad thing for businesses to get future rate cuts as manufacturing capacity is built out.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I didn’t see such a strong rally coming to SMCI. I’m going to have shares that I’d been selling covered calls against called away after tomorrow’s close. Better to sell them at the good profit though than have the shares crash and get stuck holding them. I’m not chasing shares though. I might buy them back if there’s a pull back but I’m not going to establish a position at this higher price. Shares have gone from around $41 to $49 in just 2 or 3 days. I sold the $46.50 6/27 calls a week or two ago.