Are we getting anywhere close to capitulation when nobody posts in this thread for a week?
How do you know this?
I'm assuming most of the time humans who can override are monitoring the trades? Like a current self-driving car, but there's still someone in the driver's seat.Two-thirds of US trading volume is algorithmic. Rallies haven’t been holding for a couple of years. There’s still too much resistance with interest rates, labor shortages, budget deficits, China/Russia, crime, lack of housing, partisan politics, and so on for markets to run. Therefore, and I’ve been paying attention, big moves up are quickly sold off. Plus PE multiples are still very high. The bots won’t be doing a lot of buying until much of that bad data is removed.
A lot of the money going into TLT, etc., wasn't expecting it either.There has been a pronounced sudden drop in bond values (about 2 weeks), so people are now "starting to believe" that interest rates might be around 5-7% for a longer time. "Longer" here is defined as more than what was priced in, whatever that was. When you look at the yield curve you can sorta see whether the whole curve is moving up vs. whether it's flattening. So far, it has not really flattened much depending on where on the curve you look. FWIW.
I wasn't expecting this at all. If I had, I would have done something different.
Hard for me to imagine the 10 y moving beyond 6-7% without major impact on the economy, in which case the Fed steps in.No one knows what bonds are going to do.
We might not be near the top.
Place your bets:
Interactive chart showing the daily 10 year treasury yield back to 1962. The 10 year treasury is the benchmark used to decide mortgage rates across the U.S. and is the most liquid and widely traded bond in the world.www.macrotrends.net