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Firebirdparts

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I think airline stocks will move this week. I like ALGT and ALK the best among these. Probably gonna go in deep this morning into one of these.
Any particular developments you think will turn these around? I notice earnings are July for both. I really like Allegiant as a customer, but then who wouldn't like to pay $10 for a nonstop flight.
 
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Firebirdparts

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You’d be surprised - go read the thread Aligiant thread on the Pub forum.
oldmanyellsatcloud.jpg

It's a different picture as an investor, though.
Allegiant Business Plan:
1. Sell plane tickets for $10
2. ?
3. Profit

Looks like their earnings pre-covid were about $3 a quarter. Stock price today, like everything, is higher than it was back when they were making money. But everything is.

Here's a funny headline from June 1:
Morgan Stanley Adjusts Allegiant Travel's Price Target to $326 From $325, Maintains Overweight Rating
I wonder why they didn't change it to $325.50
 
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Carp

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Any particular developments you think will turn these around? I notice earnings are July for both. I really like Allegiant as a customer, but then who wouldn't like to pay $10 for a nonstop flight.
Technicals for the sector combined with ERs up coming and holiday travel. I'm personally much higher on ALK than ALGT.
 

Carp

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You’d be surprised - go read the thread Aligiant thread on the Pub forum.
I fly ALGT at least 3-4 time a year normally. My parents use them probably 10 or more times a year. Never had a big issue with them other than they are late more frequently than I would expect. It's really hard to beat $40 flights from Chatt to Orlando.
 

walkenvol

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A macro level question for you guys. We’re way past due for a large market correction, especially with the recent price escalation post pandemic. Fundamentals are way out of line with traditional numbers. Are you guys just barreling ahead or are you making some allowances for a correction? Personally I’ve been carrying more cash than I’d like but I’m skidish to put in new dollars atm
 

walkenvol

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I fly ALGT at least 3-4 time a year normally. My parents use them probably 10 or more times a year. Never had a big issue with them other than they are late more frequently than I would expect. It's really hard to beat $40 flights from Chatt to Orlando.
I agree and have been happy with our Allegiant flights once I understood their pricing model with the extra charges to pick a seat and for a carry on
 
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mrorange211

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A macro level question for you guys. We’re way past due for a large market correction, especially with the recent price escalation post pandemic. Fundamentals are way out of line with traditional numbers. Are you guys just barreling ahead or are you making some allowances for a correction? Personally I’ve been carrying more cash than I’d like but I’m skidish to put in new dollars atm
as long as the Fed maintains the current status, it's melt up imo besides a few down days here and there. I personally think we will hit 4400 SPX and then Yellen/Powell pull the plug and we drop to 4000 for a fresh stimmy/infrastructure package in the Fall. Just my IMO.

I agree and have been happy with our Allegiant flights once I understood their pricing model with the extra charges to pick a seat and for a carry on
Right. I fly with them and Frontier all the time because I understand their pricing model and it's most convenient for me and my fam.
 

Carp

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I agree and have been happy with our Allegiant flights once I understood their pricing model with the extra charges to pick a seat and for a carry on
Honestly, if the reason you are picking a seat is to sit together with your party, just skip that and check in as soon as it lets you at the 24 hour check in. They generally put you with your party if at all possible.
 

walkenvol

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Honestly, if the reason you are picking a seat is to sit together with your party, just skip that and check in as soon as it lets you at the 24 hour check in. They generally put you with your party if at all possible.
Agreed, I don’t ever pay to pick the seats and I’ve always been seated with the wife.
 
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Carp

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A macro level question for you guys. We’re way past due for a large market correction, especially with the recent price escalation post pandemic. Fundamentals are way out of line with traditional numbers. Are you guys just barreling ahead or are you making some allowances for a correction? Personally I’ve been carrying more cash than I’d like but I’m skidish to put in new dollars atm
There's definitely a bubble, but there are a lot of factors at play that are supporting current levels. Housing market, worker shortage, lumber shortage, chip shortage, infrastructure spending, etc. And this is with several other industries still beat down from COVID. It will end eventually, but not for awhile imo. Unless there's a major event that acts like a catalyst.
 
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There's definitely a bubble, but there are a lot of factors at play that are supporting current levels. Housing market, worker shortage, lumber shortage, chip shortage, infrastructure spending, etc. And this is with several other industries still beat down from COVID. It will end eventually, but not for awhile imo. Unless there's a major event that acts like a catalyst.
Without an unforeseen surge, COVID will mostly be defeated in the US by Fall. Not so much in much of the rest of the world. This is another reason that domestic equities should outperform. But the low interest rates really help as well. Capital is cheap AND there is little incentive to instead invest in debt securities right now for growth and value investors.
 
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Carp

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1 more.

While I'm not in it at the moment, OTRK is moving to the top of my watch list and I will be on the lookout for an entry point. I like this stock both on technicals and fundamentals (which admittedly is my weaker trait).

From a technical standpoint, it's sitting at firm support level with a large gap to fill back to the $55.60 area. But more importantly, it's found a nice channel in the $25-$40 range. In general, buying around $30 or below and selling around $35 seems to be a fairly safe play for a consistent 10-20 % gain.

Fundamentally, they have grown revenue at an average rate of 59% per year over the last 5 years and it's 2020 Q4 revenue was up nearly 150% yoy. The drop in price is likely due to a number reasons,. but it was highlighted by the fact that they lost their largest customer. But it's hard not to like them at this current price, imo.
 
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