All things STOCKS

[DinkinFlicka]

Sell off on power hour into the long weekend.

Anyone notice that high volume, premium names had some 0dte options this week?

 

[05_never_again]

The story that the market has been telling about AI in general over the last several weeks is strange and contradictory to me. Seems like it will be made consistent one way or the other at some point.

For the last several weeks, the names supposed to benefit from AI have been flat to down. The names supposed to be disrupted from AI have been getting annihilated (software, etc.). You have people on X and other places talking about how it is going to completely disrupt every industry, make millions of jobs unnecessary, etc., while simultaneously saying that the capex spend is a big waste of money. How can it be both of those things?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

The story that the market has been telling about AI in general over the last several weeks is strange and contradictory to me. Seems like it will be made consistent one way or the other at some point.

For the last several weeks, the names supposed to benefit from AI have been flat to down. The names supposed to be disrupted from AI have been getting annihilated (software, etc.). You have people on X and other places talking about how it is going to completely disrupt every industry, make millions of jobs unnecessary, etc., while simultaneously saying that the capex spend is a big waste of money. How can it be both of those things?

AI is an interesting dynamic. And it will affect different industries profusely. The spending is real - I’d say the chip makers are already fairly valued BUT they still have enormous backlogs of revenue. It’s kind of at an inflection point. Primed to be very profitable with a robust economy but with a drag on the economy those companies will get hit harder than the slow and steady old school industries as CapEx spending would suffer.

I’m worried about a software recovery not coming through, but maybe they can manage to partner up with or integrate with the AI companies. The part of AI that is simply high end search is too dependent on regurgitating Reddit and Wikipedia types of sources for information. Google and Facebook are the companies to watch to see how that area developes. Will AI ruin the targeted advertising business? How disruptive will AI be for those 2 with their large collection of date on users?

It seems to me like healthcare, defense, autonomous vehicles, and possibly finance will benefit from being cutting edge users of AI. The code writers might want to learn how to mine again.

 

[Carp]

Haven't posted in awhile.

I recently took a large position in VITL. They've posted some strong earnings over the last year plus, yet the stock has been beat down pretty hard since they peaked at $53 back in August. Earnings will post in a little over a week and they are expected to post strong earnings again. It's been a very volatile stock over the last 2 years, so this is strictly a couple months swing for me and not a long term hold. But the volatility also presents a strong opportunity for some massive gains in the short term. If traces back up to August highs in the coming months, that's a 100% gainer.

Up 6% so far on this play.

 

[Vol737]

With the energy consumption required by these data centers going forward, took a position in VST a couple of weeks ago with its pullback. Picks and hammers approach. Been expanding their nuclear capacity via acquisitions. Concern is booting up new nuke facilities is excruciatingly slow, but we’re going to have to likely have more to meet data center power demand.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

With the energy consumption required by these data centers going forward, took a position in VST a couple of weeks ago with its pullback. Picks and hammers approach. Been expanding their nuclear capacity via acquisitions. Concern is booting up new nuke facilities is excruciatingly slow, but we’re going to have to likely have more to meet data center power demand.

DNN has been a play I've been messing with for a few months. Wish I had taken a larger entry. It's poised to rise with an increasingly likely approval for mining (one of) the biggest uranium deposits in Canada.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

SCOTUS ruling on tariffs is in. CNBC is reading through it now. Markets are currently up 0.30-0.40%.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Ruled against Trump. Markets are holding steady.

 

[Vol737]

Internationals and Emerg Mkts continue their upward trajectory today. Noticed the S&P500 up less than 1% YTD. Dow up about a little over 3% YTD. Nasdaq down about 1.5%. Seems like markets are digesting the tariff news. Kind of thought we might see a decent rally.

 

[05_never_again]

The leadership change within the Nasdaq in particular has been interesting to see. You've got the Qs still about 5% off the high, looking like they want to break down perhaps towards the 200 DMA:

Yet the SMH looks much more constructive technically, trying to break to new highs. Its pattern of higher highs and higher lows is still completely intact:

 

[Ernest T. Vol]

Another stupid tariff tantrum in the market. S&P up about 40% from the last tantrum lows in April 2025. Don't fall for it, stay the course.

 

[05_never_again]

Another stupid tariff tantrum in the market. S&P up about 40% from the last tantrum lows in April 2025. Don't fall for it, stay the course.

I don't think yesterday was about tariffs. Wasn't a coincidence that every specific name mentioned in that Citrini piece got slammed. The market seems to have marked up everything it thinks is going to benefit from AI, and now is marking down things that it thinks will be hurt by it. Whether it is correct or incorrect in doing so is TBD.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I don't think yesterday was about tariffs. Wasn't a coincidence that every specific name mentioned in that Citrini piece got slammed. The market seems to have marked up everything it thinks is going to benefit from AI, and now is marking down things that it thinks will be hurt by it. Whether it is correct or incorrect in doing so is TBD.

It’s difficult to figure it all out. I think that the software sell off is over done. AI can help create it, but I’d think that it makes developers and software producers much more efficient and effective than enabling companies to create their own versions of the programming.

White collar jobs are more vulnerable. But desk jockey pencil pushers shouldn’t have ever been getting compensated considerably more than plumbers, electricians, and other skilled labor workers.

 

[95 Vol Alum]

But desk jockey pencil pushers shouldn’t have ever been getting compensated considerably more than plumbers, electricians, and other skilled labor workers.

Shouldn’t have ever? I would wager most desk jockeys could learn to be a plumber. Not sure that most plumbers could learn to be an engineer or accountant.

Having said that, I’ve seen plenty of welders and electricians earn more than a “desk jockey.”

 

[05_never_again]

It’s difficult to figure it all out. I think that the software sell off is over done. AI can help create it, but I’d think that it makes developers and software producers much more efficient and effective than enabling companies to create their own versions of the programming.

White collar jobs are more vulnerable. But desk jockey pencil pushers shouldn’t have ever been getting compensated considerably more than plumbers, electricians, and other skilled labor workers.

Why not? Wages are determined by supply and demand and how easily you are to replace, not how "hard" or "important" the job is. Should Kim Kardashian make more than a pediatric cancer doctor?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Shouldn’t have ever? I would wager most desk jockeys could learn to be a plumber. Not sure that most plumbers could learn to be an engineer or accountant.

Having said that, I’ve seen plenty of welders and electricians earn more than a “desk jockey.”

Yes. They could have worked their way up. And most aren’t willing to work with sewar systems.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Why not? Wages are determined by supply and demand and how easily you are to replace, not how "hard" or "important" the job is. Should Kim Kardashian make more than a pediatric cancer doctor?

In the real office world, DEI took over. And many of the better jobs have been getting filled based on who their daddy is.

As far as DEI, the letters brigade were highly sought after at a big company that I worked for.

 

[05_never_again]

In the real office world, DEI took over. And many of the better jobs have been getting filled based on who their daddy is.

As far as DEI, the letters brigade were highly sought after at a big company that I worked for.

Hasn't been my experience. To the extent that I've seen it, DEI is something trendy that they thought they needed to pay lip service to.

 

[95 Vol Alum]

In the real office world, DEI took over. And many of the better jobs have been getting filled based on who their daddy is.

As far as DEI, the letters brigade were highly sought after at a big company that I worked for.

The real office world? I've worked in real offices - DEI isn't even something that is discussed much anymore. Large companies are political, yes, and often chase shiny objects, often at the behest of investment banks and/or consultants. Six Sigma, Toyota Way, DEI, ESG, etc, etc. They all seem to fade with time, though.

Additionally, I'm sure it is rare that the "daddy" passes on the family electrical, plumbing, whatever business they run to the kid(s). Who you know touches virtually every industry/job.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

The real office world? I've worked in real offices - DEI isn't even something that is discussed much anymore. Large companies are political, yes, and often chase shiny objects, often at the behest of investment banks and/or consultants. Six Sigma, Toyota Way, DEI, ESG, etc, etc. They all seem to fade with time, though.

Additionally, I'm sure it is rare that the "daddy" passes on the family electrical, plumbing, whatever business they run to the kid(s). Who you know touches virtually every industry/job.

DEI is now entrenched in HR. One of HR’s main objectives is to help the company avoid getting sued.

AI can eliminate a lot of middle management positions. It’s not going to replace most blue collar workers. Maybe many of the delivery people eventually. Factory workers have already been impacted by automation. Differently than a hundred years ago when supply was far behind demand.

I think that software is way overdone with the correction. Software companies seem like they’d benefit.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

Another quarter, another day where NVDA can lift or put the market on sale for a few sessions.

I have been holding mostly cash for a couple months and harvesting premiums from selling puts. Just waiting for a big dip.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Yesterday a couple of the destroyed shares that I own were some of the leaders. Maybe a sign tgat the selling was overdone.

The most talked about stock in the financial media is Blue Owl. Even though it’s not having complimentary comments, they’re getting a ton of PR. It’s almost like the media has been told that they need to discuss the name every hour.

 

[Majors]

Just give me $200+ for NVDA moving forward.
$202-203 not expecting a big jump.

 

[05_never_again]

Yesterday a couple of the destroyed shares that I own were some of the leaders. Maybe a sign tgat the selling was overdone.

The most talked about stock in the financial media is Blue Owl. Even though it’s not having complimentary comments, they’re getting a ton of PR. It’s almost like the media has been told that they need to discuss the name every hour.

"This is just like the Bear Stearns HFs that blew up in 2007" is an attention-grabbing headline. While there are parallels there, I don't think bad loans in private credit have infested the financial system to anywhere near the same extent residential mortgages did. That was the whole point of the reforms after GFC; to get stuff like that off the balance sheets of the commercial banks.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Flat, mixed opening currently indicated. But initial jobless claims will be published at 8:30am. And PPI tomorrow. NVDA earnings after the Wednesday close didn’t stir much up in either direction.