Ukraine Protests

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#1,926
#1,926
volprof said:
Now I was under the impression that he is a cool, calculated, intelligent leader.
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I think he is calculating and intelligent. Cool is another matter entirely though the guy does hunt tigers without a shirt lol.

But make no mistake, he is a significant opponent on the world stage and certainly not one to be underestimated by any means. And I think everything that has transpired so far has been what he wants to happen. Sure there was the potential for things to blow up out of his control, but that just hasn't happened yet.

So the question is how far does he push the envelope before enough is enough?
 
#1,927
#1,927
Grand Vol said:
I think he is calculating and intelligent. Cool is another matter entirely though the guy does hunt tigers without a shirt lol.

But make no mistake, he is a significant opponent on the world stage and certainly not one to be underestimated by any means. And I think everything that has transpired so far has been what he wants to happen. Sure there was the potential for things to blow up out of his control, but that just hasn't happened yet.

So the question is how far does he push the envelope before enough is enough?
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I guarantee the next move will be Moldova in particular Transnistria.
 
#1,928
#1,928
Burhead said:
I guarantee the next move will be Moldova in particular Transnistria.
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Interesting situation with that though since Moldova is not connected with Russia. And getting to it would require Russian forces to use Ukrainian transportation networks to get there. Which I seriously doubt the Ukrainians are going to oblige at the present moment. Or going through Romania and I don't think the Romanians would be hip to that idea either.

I'd actually see them "inviting" Belarus back into the Russian Federation and putting political pressure on the Baltic Republics as a next step. Either for closer ties with Russia or to remove themselves from NATO. Or both.
 
#1,929
#1,929
Grand Vol said:
I don't know. I think the more operative question would be "is Putin crazy enough to invade the Ukraine?"

And more importantly, what would the world reaction be? Sanctions? Fuel an insurgency vis a vie Afghanistan? Allow any former Soviet State into NATO that wants in? Renewal of the Cold War? Use military force to remove the Russians?

Long term strategic thinking here, what would be the long term implications of Russia invading the Ukraine and furthermore, what are the long term implications that the EU and the US could impose?

Thing about the Crimea...being that there is a significant Russian presence there it still wasn't right for the Russians to occupy it. It's basically a land grab reminiscent of Hitler moving into the Sudetenland "for security purposes." So where does he stop? Does he consider annexing the Ukraine as a natural buffer zone against encroachment from Europe?

Unfortunately, Putin to the US is much like Reagan was to the Soviets. They believed he was just crazy enough to start WWIII and destroy them. He was unpredictable and they had no idea how to deal with him.

Much the same way we are with Putin right now. We have no idea what he's going to do next and we have no good plans to counter what he is doing.
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I don't think we're talking more than sanctions unless things really blow up.

A point I'm getting at is that there's no neatly packaged area for Russia to annex. Once you get much beyond the border area, the ethnic/language breakdown is pretty muddled.

Russianlang2001ua.PNG


I think local support for a Russian takeover would be much lower than in Crimea. They might not be greeted as liberators.

How would Russia overcome the resistance? Troops? Money?
 
#1,930
#1,930
Grand Vol said:
Interesting situation with that though since Moldova is not connected with Russia. And getting to it would require Russian forces to use Ukrainian transportation networks to get there. Which I seriously doubt the Ukrainians are going to oblige at the present moment. Or going through Romania and I don't think the Romanians would be hip to that idea either.

I'd actually see them "inviting" Belarus back into the Russian Federation and putting political pressure on the Baltic Republics as a next step. Either for closer ties with Russia or to remove themselves from NATO. Or both.
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Moscow & Minsk already have an informal union; Union State - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

As for Moldova they have nearly 2,000 Russian troops based out of Transnistria, I wonder how they supply them than? I forgot about that quite honestly.
 
#1,931
#1,931
By the way regarding Belarus, I think it was either yesterday or the day before they requested Russia deploy 12-14 fighters in response to the increased American presence in Poland which Russia did. I'm hoping the people of Belarus are next in throwing out oppressive regimes.
 
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#1,932
#1,932
Burhead said:
By the way regarding Belarus, I think it was either yesterday or the day before they requested Russia deploy 12-14 fighters in response to the increased American presence in Poland which Russia did. I'm hoping the people of Belarus are next in throwing out oppressive regimes.
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Lukashenko will be there until he decides to retire.
 
#1,933
#1,933
BBC News - Ukraine creates National Guard ahead of Crimea vote

No military expert obviously, although I have watched Saving Private Ryan, so that has to account for something. Ordinarily, I imagine it would take at least a few weeks, if not a couple of months, to mobilize such a force. Wonder how quickly Ukraine can do it now? Something tells me they might need this force a few days after the upcoming referendum.

Any of you military guys know how long it would take to mobilize/create such a force?
 
#1,934
#1,934
volprof said:
BBC News - Ukraine creates National Guard ahead of Crimea vote

No military expert obviously, although I have watched Saving Private Ryan, so that has to account for something. Ordinarily, I imagine it would take at least a few weeks, if not a couple of months, to mobilize such a force. Wonder how quickly Ukraine can do it now? Something tells me they might need this force a few days after the upcoming referendum.

Any of you military guys know how long it would take to mobilize/create such a force?
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Depends on what you want them to do. A National Guard like ours would take several months to bring up to speed. Sometimes quicker depending on the intended mission.

Problem isn't the training time, it's the funding to equip and train the force. And IIRC, the Ukraine was almost broke.
 
#1,935
#1,935
One thing the Crimean brouhaha has probably accomplished is giving Ukraine gentler bailout conditions. And it needs help. What a train wreck:

Ukraine’s gross domestic product adjusted for inflation today is at the same level as two decades ago, while that of Romania and Russia grew by 60 percent and Poland by 130 percent, Nielsen said.

The country ranked 144th among 177 nations, tied with Nigeria, in the annual Corruption Perceptions Index compiled by Transparency International, a Berlin-based watchdog.
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#1,936
#1,936
Grand Vol said:
Depends on what you want them to do. A National Guard like ours would take several months to bring up to speed. Sometimes quicker depending on the intended mission.

Problem isn't the training time, it's the funding to equip and train the force. And IIRC, the Ukraine was almost broke.
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Ukraine's national security chief Andriy Parubiy said the Guard would be deployed to "ensure state security, defend the borders, and eliminate terrorist groups".
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Sounds like the biggest concerns are getting them directly to the border to counter the 80,000 on the other side, and then ensuring internal security (most likely within eastern cities with potential insurrections) in the event of an invasion as well.
 
#1,937
#1,937
Grand Vol said:
Depends on what you want them to do. A National Guard like ours would take several months to bring up to speed. Sometimes quicker depending on the intended mission.

Problem isn't the training time, it's the funding to equip and train the force. And IIRC, the Ukraine was almost broke.
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Like you said finding personnel isn't the problem. I'm sure there are Ukrainian Afghan war vets that would sign up along with males who were to old to report for the previous mobilization that would sign up. I'm also sure groups like Svoboda, Right Sector, and the Ukrainian National Assembly - Ukrainian People's Self-Defense (aka the nationalists/far-right) wouldn't mind there forces joining either.

Also for the other issues you raised, those would be the problem but with a threat of a potential Russian invasion I would not be worried about money right now.
 
#1,938
#1,938
Burhead said:
Like you said finding personnel isn't the problem. I'm sure there are Ukrainian Afghan war vets that would sign up along with males who were to old to report for the previous mobilization that would sign up. I'm also sure groups like Svoboda, Right Sector, and the Ukrainian National Assembly - Ukrainian People's Self-Defense (aka the nationalists/far-right) wouldn't mind there forces joining either.

Also for the other issues you raised, those would be the problem but with a threat of a potential Russian invasion I would not be worried about money right now.
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It's not necessarily the threat of invasion, but rather if the country has the capability to manufacture arms, equipment, ammo, uniforms, etc in a timely fashion and without breaking the bank. The draw down of the military in the Ukraine has been significant (to include our own politicians makings sure they destroyed millions of rounds of ammo that could have been used in this very scenario) and building back up isn't easy.

And the problem behind the groups like you mentioned is they are not necessarily a disciplined force for that kind of duty. They are highly partisan (political) groups bound together by a common ideology. And breaking the mindset of their ideology first to nation first isn't always easy. Which also takes time. The raw material is there, but focusing it in the direction they need to be focused in?
 
#1,942
#1,942
Velo Vol said:
Soccer?

I was giving the administration the benefit of the doubt, but this kind of appeasement can't be tolerated.

BisPaeSCYAALEj5.jpg
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Well, the guys have been joking about Obama playing golf. Seems they were only slightly right: it was Kerry who was goofing off all along, only by kicking around a soccer ball in what was surely a most amateur fashion. He and that other guy, who just happens to look a lot like the Russian Foreign Minister, Lavrov, should cut it out and get back to some realpolitiking.
 
#1,943
#1,943
When you guys are down to criticizing the stray kick of a soccer ball I'm officially claiming you as having jumped the shark on Kerry.
 
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