Recruiting Forum Football Talk IX

[knoxvol52]

 

[JohnnyD1024]

Out of boredom I'm doing some research on our first power 4 opponent Georgia Tech. They made an less than inspiring hire at OC to replace Buster Faulkner in George Godsey. Godsey played QB for Tech and was a team mate of head coach Brent Key.

After his playing career was over he was hired as an assistant in 2024 at UCF. He was an assistant there until 2010. He never called plays while he was there.

He has spent the last 15 years coaching in The NFL with New England, Houston, Detroit, Miami and Baltimore. The only time he has been an primary play called was when he was OC for the Texans in 2015 and 2016. Houston finished 18 in offense in 2015 and 29th in 2016.

Tech also had to hire a new DC and hired Jason Semore. Semore spent the last 3 seasons as the DC for Charles Huff at Marshall and Southern Miss. In those 3 seasons his defenses finished 62nd, 71st and 101st nationally

 

[Rishvol]

in case anyone wants to know what’s going on in wildcat country

Probably already been said but if that's how your oline fights then a lot of sacks are coming their QBs way

 

[TheRain]

How could Lane not end up there?

 

[JohnnyD1024]

Just remember that a couple years ago Ole Miss bought Lane a playoff and possible National Championship roster and he managed to lose 3 regular season games. One of those being a home loss to Kentucky.

 

[jave36]

The competition to get people off of the coach and come to the games. The best thing to do is to win.

Personally, I'd rather have the helmet nachos and a beer and just watch the game.

I actually like the idea. I don't drink beer, so having soda refills and unlisted hot dogs and nachos and peanuts and ice cream for a few dollars more than a regular ticket price would be a good deal.

 

[TheRain]

I actually like the idea. I don't drink beer, so having soda refills and unlisted hot dogs and nachos and peanuts and ice cream for a few dollars more than a regular ticket price would be a good deal.

It's a great deal. I'm just afraid I would end up sampling all of it and eat myself into a stupor.

 

[Orange.]

This is a real fight at a kindergarten graduation in Ohio.

 

[SergeantVol]

May 23, 1934

Death of Bonnie and Clyde

Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow were shot and killed on May 23, 1934, in a police ambush on Louisiana Highway 154 (between Gibsland and Sailes). A heavily armed posse of Texas and Louisiana lawmen, led by former Texas Ranger Frank Hamer, fired over 130 rounds into the couple's stolen Ford V8.

View attachment 833598

There's a monument on the highway and a museum in the next town over, Gibsland, LA. The monument is littered with graffiti and people's tributes to the couple. The museum is a little hokey and makes you feel like you're gonna contract Hepatitis by taking the tour.

 

[Woodlawn VOL]

LSU has a running battle with Kiffin and Wade. Good grief they are for sure right up there with most shady coaches in America. It’s obvious the LSU administration isn’t too worried about the rules or integrity. GBO

 

[Dadof2Vols]

LSU has a running battle with Kiffin and Wade. Good grief they are for sure right up there with most shady coaches in America. It’s obvious the LSU administration isn’t too worried about the rules or integrity. GBO

It Louisiana politics. It is what it is

 

[Jackcrevol]

Looking like our hs recruiting is giving Clemsum its much needed mojo. That isnt good long term.

 

[drvenner]

Maybe he'll have a pitching coach that actually helps him.

 

[drvenner]

The police pulled me over last night and said, “Sir, do you realize how badly your car was swerving between lanes?”

I said, “I’ve had eight drinks, officer.”

The officer replied, “Sir, that’s no excuse to let your wife drive.”

 

[Orangeburst]

Interesting stat: Heupel is 29-4 in games where the POV (Positive Overage Variable) exceeds the Average Reinfeld Coefficient by 3 points or less.

 

[drvenner]

More pics from when I had no service.

Warderick Wells...

View attachment 833592View attachment 833593View attachment 833594

I was going to ask where all the bikinis are and then realized you'd probably send a selfie, so never mind.

 

[tnhunter 10]

Rather go to Hattiesburg.

 

[tnhunter 10]

 

[Jackcrevol]

Interesting stat: Heupel is 29-4 in games where the POV (Positive Overage Variable) exceeds the Average Reinfeld Coefficient by 3 points or less.

Using Beta-Bernoulli Conjugacy

Perfect — with an 8–4 record here's the math Tennessee’s posterior win probability under Josh Heupel.

Bayesian Win‑Probability Model (Using 8–4 Data)

We observe:

• \(n = 12\) games
• \(w = 8\) wins
• \(\ell = 4\) losses


We place a Beta prior on Tennessee’s true win probability \(\theta_H\):

\theta_H \sim \text{Beta}(\alpha_0,\ \beta_0)


To stay neutral and let the data speak, use a uniform prior:

\alpha_0 = 1,\quad \beta_0 = 1

Posterior Distribution

By Beta–Bernoulli conjugacy:

\theta_H \mid \text{data} \sim \text{Beta}(\alpha_0 + w,\ \beta_0 + \ell)


Plug in the numbers:

\theta_H \mid \text{data} \sim \text{Beta}(1 + 8,\ 1 + 4)


{\theta_H \mid \text{data} \sim \text{Beta}(9,\ 5)}


This is the full Bayesian belief about Tennessee’s true win probability under Heupel after an 8–4 season.

Posterior Mean (Expected Win Probability)

\mathbb{E}[\theta_H \mid \text{data}]
= \frac{\alpha_0 + w}{\alpha_0 + \beta_0 + n}


= \frac{9}{14}


{\mathbb{E}[\theta_H] = 0.643}


So the Bayesian estimate of Tennessee’s true win probability is 64.3%.

Posterior Predictive Probability of Winning the Next Game

For a new game \(W_{n+1}\):

\mathbb{P}(W_{n+1} = 1 \mid \text{data})
= \mathbb{E}[\theta_H \mid \text{data}]


{\mathbb{P}(\text{Tennessee wins next game}) = 0.643}


This is the Bayesian “next‑game” prediction.


95% Credible Interval

The 95% credible interval for a Beta(9,5) distribution is approximately:

\theta_H^{95\%} \in [0.39,\ 0.86]


Interpretation:

With 95% probability, Tennessee’s true win rate under Heupel lies between 39% and 86%, given an 8–4 season and a neutral prior.

Maverick also predicted a 100% probability that if Tennessee scores more points, and holds opponents to fewer points than they score, they win!

 

[Jackcrevol]

Neither of those are anywhere near sawgrass

I played crab grass recently, it was scary

 

[Orangeburst]

Vandy in the bubble

 

[drvenner]

Rather go to Hattiesburg.

Really hope Candy stays home

 

[Enki_Amenra]

The police pulled me over last night and said, “Sir, do you realize how badly your car was swerving between lanes?”

I said, “I’ve had eight drinks, officer.”

The officer replied, “Sir, that’s no excuse to let your wife drive.”

 

[Enki_Amenra]

Rather go to Hattiesburg.

You may be the first person in history to ever say that and mean it.

 

[Enki_Amenra]

Using Beta-Bernoulli Conjugacy

Perfect — with an 8–4 record here's the math Tennessee’s posterior win probability under Josh Heupel.

Bayesian Win‑Probability Model (Using 8–4 Data)

We observe:

• \(n = 12\) games
• \(w = 8\) wins
• \(\ell = 4\) losses


We place a Beta prior on Tennessee’s true win probability \(\theta_H\):

\theta_H \sim \text{Beta}(\alpha_0,\ \beta_0)


To stay neutral and let the data speak, use a uniform prior:

\alpha_0 = 1,\quad \beta_0 = 1

Posterior Distribution

By Beta–Bernoulli conjugacy:

\theta_H \mid \text{data} \sim \text{Beta}(\alpha_0 + w,\ \beta_0 + \ell)


Plug in the numbers:

\theta_H \mid \text{data} \sim \text{Beta}(1 + 8,\ 1 + 4)


{\theta_H \mid \text{data} \sim \text{Beta}(9,\ 5)}


This is the full Bayesian belief about Tennessee’s true win probability under Heupel after an 8–4 season.

Posterior Mean (Expected Win Probability)

\mathbb{E}[\theta_H \mid \text{data}]
= \frac{\alpha_0 + w}{\alpha_0 + \beta_0 + n}


= \frac{9}{14}


{\mathbb{E}[\theta_H] = 0.643}


So the Bayesian estimate of Tennessee’s true win probability is 64.3%.

Posterior Predictive Probability of Winning the Next Game

For a new game \(W_{n+1}\):

\mathbb{P}(W_{n+1} = 1 \mid \text{data})
= \mathbb{E}[\theta_H \mid \text{data}]


{\mathbb{P}(\text{Tennessee wins next game}) = 0.643}


This is the Bayesian “next‑game” prediction.


95% Credible Interval

The 95% credible interval for a Beta(9,5) distribution is approximately:

\theta_H^{95\%} \in [0.39,\ 0.86]


Interpretation:

With 95% probability, Tennessee’s true win rate under Heupel lies between 39% and 86%, given an 8–4 season and a neutral prior.

Maverick also predicted a 100% probability that if Tennessee scores more points, and holds opponents to fewer points than they score, they win!

That's exactly what I was thinking