Do you think Nate Ament will come back?

[Hulavol]

This reminds me of the Grumors…..

Fellas, there is no way in hell this young man or his agents are going to seriously consider risking losing so much money. As someone nearing retirement, I’d advise him to grab as much guaranteed cash as possible.

Now that said, I sure hope he stays….

 

[Vol49er]

This reminds me of the Grumors…..

Fellas, there is no way in hell this young man or his agents are going to seriously consider risking losing so much money. As someone nearing retirement, I’d advise him to grab as much guaranteed cash as possible.

Now that said, I sure hope he stays….

I mean it’s not like it’s some unprecedented thing for a fringe lottery pick to go back to school

 

[omghulkhands]

I mean it’s not like it’s some unprecedented thing for a fringe lottery pick to go back to school

I don’t mean this rudely, but I can’t really name hardly anyone recently who was a fringe lottery player (projected 12-16), stayed in school, and improved their draft position.

i know the dynamic with college pay going up so much changes the math here. But the only way this can make sense in my mind is if he is being told he might be a late 1st pick. Then I can see why there might be some debate.

 

[posivol]

outside top 10 right now maybe a dalton type 17 pick.his agent thinks if he comes back he would go number 1 next year.always listnen to your agent...lol

 

[Bigorangefan 98]

This reminds me of the Grumors…..

Fellas, there is no way in hell this young man or his agents are going to seriously consider risking losing so much money. As someone nearing retirement, I’d advise him to grab as much guaranteed cash as possible.

Now that said, I sure hope he stays….

He will make more money staying another year

 

[ochocinco]

This reminds me of the Grumors…..

Fellas, there is no way in hell this young man or his agents are going to seriously consider risking losing so much money. As someone nearing retirement, I’d advise him to grab as much guaranteed cash as possible.

Now that said, I sure hope he stays….

Ahh. So as someone nearing retirement age do you ever think back about decisions you could have made as a teenager with less immediate rewards and better long term possibilities ? Thats the whole thing here. He has an opportunity to be a 9 figure contract kinda guy if he grows into a top 3 pick. Some guys want to be franchise players. Other guys want to play overseas. It’s not just about getting to the league for a guy like him. Professional sports are much much more about branding and name value than most people realize. Theres guys in prison more talented than some NBA players. They didn’t follow that path. They didn’t sell a story. Nobody wants to cheer for them. I’m ranting now..but I’m saying it ain’t about snatching fast money at his level. His agent absolutely understands this.

 

[rdk4121]

I don’t mean this rudely, but I can’t really name hardly anyone recently who was a fringe lottery player (projected 12-16), stayed in school, and improved their draft position.

i know the dynamic with college pay going up so much changes the math here. But the only way this can make sense in my mind is if he is being told he might be a late 1st pick. Then I can see why there might be some debate.

Not that recent, but Marcus Smart is one that comes to mind. Maybe Kris Dunn, but he was a 4 year guy, but certainly would've been drafted after his junior year. PJ Washington counts for sure. Franz Wagner as well. I can't really conform where most of these guys were mocked the year before they came out, but I believe all of them certainly improved their draft position by playing another year.

There's also this, "Early projections suggest the 2027 NBA Draft class is considered one of the weakest in recent memory, with talent evaluators describing it as lacking elite, top-tier star power compared to previous years." LINK. That's another good reason. He honestly does have a good shot at being top 5 at least.

 

[ochocinco]

Jalen Williams and Mikal Bridges are two recent examples

 

[BigBadVol]

Ahh. So as someone nearing retirement age do you ever think back about decisions you could have made as a teenager with less immediate rewards and better long term possibilities ? Thats the whole thing here. He has an opportunity to be a 9 figure contract kinda guy if he grows into a top 3 pick. Some guys want to be franchise players. Other guys want to play overseas. It’s not just about getting to the league for a guy like him. Professional sports are much much more about branding and name value than most people realize. Theres guys in prison more talented than some NBA players. They didn’t follow that path. They didn’t sell a story. Nobody wants to cheer for them. I’m ranting now..but I’m saying it ain’t about snatching fast money at his level. His agent absolutely understands this.

A 9 figure contract? I don’t think so lol. So some team is going to offer a one hundred million dollar contract to a rookie?

 

[adam.vol]

Allegedly his agency is trying to figure out if he’s in line for the No. 1 pick next year. If he’s top 5 next year that would certainly be enough of a boost to make it worthwhile to come back, assuming that he would get a strong NIL check. He would need to hedge against injury with an insurance policy, as that may drop him out of the lottery next year. Worst case scenario, he comes back healthy and does not show any development, drops out of the lottery without insurance kicking in.

It’s really cool when you guys start coming around to what I was saying last month. Eventually you’ll think it’s your idea and feel smart for saying it.

 

[sami]

A 9 figure contract? I don’t think so lol. So some team is going to offer a one hundred million dollar contract to a rookie?

I believe he's talking down the road, on his 2nd or 3rd contract after proving his worth as a top 3 pick.

I'll say this about Nate's 'readiness' for the NBA - to me, right now he's a 2-3 year project as he'll spend the first 1-2 seasons developing his game and body, and in the right organization will be brought along properly and not thrown to the wolves on day one. In that situation, I believe he can thrive at the next level.

The advantage of returning (only if he isn't going to be a lottery pick) is having a strong season here while building his body further and addressing issues about his handles and dealing with physicality. The much weaker draft next year, with few high upside one-and-dones at this point, plays in his favor.

It really is a coin toss at this point, especially given how long it has gone without a definitive commitment either way, which he doesn't have to give at least until Friday. Even then he can play this out until late May.

 

[Chris4Vols22]

I don’t mean this rudely, but I can’t really name hardly anyone recently who was a fringe lottery player (projected 12-16), stayed in school, and improved their draft position.

i know the dynamic with college pay going up so much changes the math here. But the only way this can make sense in my mind is if he is being told he might be a late 1st pick. Then I can see why there might be some debate.

This is exactly where I'm at. To date, there's really no precedent to suggest a prospect like Ament would or should stay. If anyone can provide an example that I'm not thinking of, I'm all ears.

Like you, I get that the evolving NIL environment has to move the needle, but as of now, I only see it moving a miniscule amount that will likely not be a factor for someone like Ament. Maybe he proves me wrong, but my current stance is that it's an unrealistic pipedream.

I can't remember the name, but I think I read that a late first round/early second round prospect recently announced he's returning to his school. For a prospect like that, a tier under Ament's, I can see a stronger argument to stay.

 

[omghulkhands]

Not that recent, but Marcus Smart is one that comes to mind. Maybe Kris Dunn, but he was a 4 year guy, but certainly would've been drafted after his junior year. PJ Washington counts for sure. Franz Wagner as well. I can't really conform where most of these guys were mocked the year before they came out, but I believe all of them certainly improved their draft position by playing another year.

There's also this, "Early projections suggest the 2027 NBA Draft class is considered one of the weakest in recent memory, with talent evaluators describing it as lacking elite, top-tier star power compared to previous years." LINK. That's another good reason. He honestly does have a good shot at being top 5 at least.

I think Marcus Smart for now is the most definitive answer I've seen so far. (and as you said, was a while ago). He likely moved probably mid round to 6th.

PJ was ultimately taken 12th so I don't think he fits the model we are discussing. If he was mocked in the middle after his frosh year, he didn't really move enough to justify returning.

Wagner is a weird case. He stats didn't dramatically improve year 1 to 2 in college. I'd have to look into that one more to understand it.

Bridges was mentioned by another poster. He probably got a middle round grade after his fresh season. Came back, his draft stock probably decreased and he salvaged it with a 3rd year and was selected 10th.

 

[ochocinco]

A 9 figure contract? I don’t think so lol. So some team is going to offer a one hundred million dollar contract to a rookie?

Long term. Thats the problem here. So many just thinking about quick pay day. If he becomes a household name after being the face of college basketball next season on a loaded Vol roster and then a plug and play rookie instead of being stuck on the g league shuttle bus trying to find a role. Gotta think long term. Visibility and legacy.

 

[kckempf]

A 9 figure contract? I don’t think so lol. So some team is going to offer a one hundred million dollar contract to a rookie?

NBA contract values have a lot of rules attached, so a 9 figure contract would not be available until after the rookie contract in the first place.

 

[82_VOL_83]

SIAP, I heard yesterday that he had fallen as far as a projected 18th in the current draft and is projected #1 next year.

 

[ochocinco]

I think Marcus Smart for now is the most definitive answer I've seen so far. (and as you said, was a while ago). He likely moved probably mid round to 6th.

PJ was ultimately taken 12th so I don't think he fits the model we are discussing. If he was mocked in the middle after his frosh year, he didn't really move enough to justify returning.

Wagner is a weird case. He stats didn't dramatically improve year 1 to 2 in college. I'd have to look into that one more to understand it.

Bridges was mentioned by another poster. He probably got a middle round grade after his fresh season. Came back, his draft stock probably decreased and he salvaged it with a 3rd year and was selected 10th.

Bridges was projected late first early second. Came back and became a top 10 pick. If you go back further there’s Trey Burke as the perfect example. Not sure why you’d go through all that effort to discredit those guys using your opinion or a probably. Nate and his agent understand how the thing works or there wouldn’t even be a discussion. You have to accept this may just happen.

 

[ETNCvol]

If I were Coach Barnes, I’d play the Peyton Manning card. Call Peyton and get him to take Nate out to dinner and just share with him what Peyton faced and whether he felt it was worth another year. Hearing that from someone who faced similar decisions and outcomes may be helpful for Nate.

 

[adam.vol]

I don’t mean this rudely, but I can’t really name hardly anyone recently who was a fringe lottery player (projected 12-16), stayed in school, and improved their draft position.

i know the dynamic with college pay going up so much changes the math here. But the only way this can make sense in my mind is if he is being told he might be a late 1st pick. Then I can see why there might be some debate.

Was Zach Edey not a fringe lottery pick after his first Wooden Award? He improved to top 10 draft pick.

 

[omghulkhands]

Bridges was projected late first early second. Came back and became a top 10 pick. If you go back further there’s Trey Burke as the perfect example. Not sure why you’d go through all that effort to discredit those guys using your opinion or a probably. Nate and his agent understand how the thing works or there wouldn’t even be a discussion. You have to accept this may just happen.

This is pretty snarky given you have provided multiple examples that don't corelate to what is being discussed. Like, even in this response you lay out why Bridges is not in fact, a good comp. Because by your own statement, he wasn't mocked late lottery.

I said show me guys being mocked late lottery that came back to school and improved their draft stock.

So Trey Burke. Picked 9th. Was going back to college worth moving up 5-6 spots if he was indeed mocked late lottery the year prior?

Now if you believe Nate is being mocked late 1st, that is an entirely different conversation than the one I am having. Your examples seem much more apt to that.

his agent understand how the thing works or there wouldn’t even be a discussion.

Now here is where we do align. But I've not spoken to him and neither have you. So we don't really know their opinions. So that's why I am going off the historical data we can look at to try and predict how reasonable this may be.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

This is exactly where I'm at. To date, there's really no precedent to suggest a prospect like Ament would or should stay. If anyone can provide an example that I'm not thinking of, I'm all ears.

Like you, I get that the evolving NIL environment has to move the needle, but as of now, I only see it moving a miniscule amount that will likely not be a factor for someone like Ament. Maybe he proves me wrong, but my current stance is that it's an unrealistic pipedream.

I can't remember the name, but I think I read that a late first round/early second round prospect recently announced he's returning to his school. For a prospect like that, a tier under Ament's, I can see a stronger argument to stay.

Blake Griffin?

 

[omghulkhands]

Was Zach Edey not a fringe lottery pick after his first Wooden Award? He improved to top 10 draft pick.

I dived into that one and the answer seems to be a pretty resounding no. He improved his stock massively from 2nd rounder / late 1st at best in his final year.

 

[omghulkhands]

Blake Griffin?

The frustrating thing is we could actually figure this out if draft express wasn't shut down.

They have a mock draft history for all players. But where the site is closed now it doesn't really work well anymore.

I tried to look up Blake and it didn't work.

I did get a near definitive answer of a player though as a comp outside Marcus Smart.

James Harden. He was mocked late lottery. returned and drafted 3rd.

 

[ochocinco]

This is pretty snarky given you have provided multiple examples that don't corelate to what is being discussed. Like, even in this response you lay out why Bridges is not in fact, a good comp. Because by your own statement, he wasn't mocked late lottery.

I said show me guys being mocked late lottery that came back to school and improved their draft stock.

So Trey Burke. Picked 9th. Was going back to college worth moving up 5-6 spots if he was indeed mocked middle lottery the year prior?

Now if you believe Nate is being mocked late 1st, that is an entirely different conversation than the one I am having. Your examples seem much more apt to that.



Now here is where we do align. But I've not spoken to him and neither have you. So we don't really know their opinions. So that's why I am going off the historical data we can look at to try and predict how reasonable this may be.

You’re right. I don’t believe for one second Nate goes in the lottery this year. I think late first. That’s where you draft a guy that has potential but looked completely lost vs a talented team. His tournament play really exposed him. Everyone knows he has potential to be great but the tournament showed he has potential to be absolutely nothing as well. I’m not trying to bash him. He’s just a kid. Rarely do I refer to college athletes as kids. But he really needs another year before diving in the deep end with the sharks.

 

[wtmvol]

You’re right. I don’t believe for one second Nate goes in the lottery this year. I think late first. That’s where you draft a guy that has potential but looked completely lost vs a talented team. His tournament play really exposed him. Everyone knows he has potential to be great but the tournament showed he has potential to be absolutely nothing as well. I’m not trying to bash him. He’s just a kid. Rarely do I refer to college athletes as kids. But he really needs another year before diving in the deep end with the sharks.

Late 1st would be shocking based on where nearly every single mock has him going. Unless by late 1st, you mean outside the top 14?