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#20,002
#20,002
Wonder if today (and maybe throughout the week) ends up being some kind of panicky, liquidation phase. Market has been teetering for a little bit (looks like it wants to break down, but ends up not) and basically everything is down except oil and the dollar. Even previous metals and energy stocks are getting smoked; that sounds like people selling what they can.
 
#20,003
#20,003
Thunder Good-Oil said:
AVAV is up 4.65% to $218.00
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Thought that was an over-reaction for them.

But, yeah..you are right. They are more of a cherry on the sundae type company for the Department of War.

W/O any research, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrup Grumman would be my three picks I think.

In ole days, Boeing was in that mix; now days, their private business is too concerning for my taste.
 
#20,004
#20,004
Jax_Vol said:
Thought that was an over-reaction for them.

But, yeah..you are right. They are more of a cherry on the sundae type company for the Department of War.

W/O any research, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrup Grumman would be my three picks I think.

In ole days, Boeing was in that mix; now days, their private business is too concerning for my taste.
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But the BA private business is a duopoly and IIRC Airbus hasn’t been hitting home runs either. However there are probably better places to put investment capital than BA. The industry as a whole might be broken. Are the big ass jets that important with a chaotic world? What’s international travel looking like? The smaller, regional jets might be more economically feasible. Embraer possibly.
 
#20,007
#20,007
Today’s losses have been pared back by about half. Fairly nice recovery from earlier this morning.
 
#20,010
#20,010
DinkinFlicka said:
Trying to figure out where to do significant entries or, more importantly, when.
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This is a strange market/tough tape and has been for months now. Personally it feels like the market wants to crack, but at the same time these repeated recoveries after attempts to sell off in response to various news events can be seen as bullish. There are a bunch of big name, leadership stocks that are well off the highs, but breadth remains pretty good. The tape earlier today looked like it was setting up for some liquidations/panicky-type selling (even gold was down, which you figure it would be up given the news), which could set up some kind of actionable bottom, but we've recovered sharply again.
 
#20,011
#20,011
05_never_again said:
This is a strange market/tough tape and has been for months now. Personally it feels like the market wants to crack, but at the same time these repeated recoveries after attempts to sell off in response to various news events can be seen as bullish. There are a bunch of big name, leadership stocks that are well off the highs, but breadth remains pretty good. The tape earlier today looked like it was setting up for some liquidations/panicky-type selling (even gold was down, which you figure it would be up given the news), which could set up some kind of actionable bottom, but we've recovered sharply again.
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That's why I've been mostly cash for a while. Not much rhyme or reason lately.

My cash puts have worked decently well barring an oversight on my part and doing a few RUN puts on earnings week last week (I don't typically touch options on anything if it reports that week) but it feels weird not being long on a position right now.
 
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#20,012
#20,012
DinkinFlicka said:
That's why I've been mostly cash for a while. Not much rhyme or reason lately.

My cash puts have worked decently well barring an oversight on my part and doing a few RUN puts on earnings week last week (I don't typically touch options on anything if it reports that week) but it feels weird not being long on a position right now.
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I do think you put long-term cash to work in the S&P with a move to the 200 DMA (even better if it undercuts it and then quickly gets back above it). Even better if it coincides with a VIX spike into the 30s or 40s.
 
#20,013
#20,013
05_never_again said:
I do think you put long-term cash to work in the S&P with a move to the 200 DMA (even better if it undercuts it and then quickly gets back above it). Even better if it coincides with a VIX spike into the 30s or 40s.
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Good thinking. SGOV has been suggested to me by my father, but he's pretty conservative with how he handles his port.
 
#20,017
#20,017
Asia getting smoked again overnight. KOSPI down another 9.5%, Nikkei down almost 4%. These are after incredibly large run ups though, especially in South Korea. US futures have also gotten weaker; S&Ps were flat and are now down about 0.4%.

I wonder if the sharp indications lower followed by buying in US markets the last 2 days during the cash markets is foreign selling overnight.
 
#20,019
#20,019
Several employment reports are being released through the rest of the week. ADP’s employment report kicks it off in less than an hour.

The Beige Book is at 2pm today, but no Fed rate adjustment in 2 weeks is the near unanimous consensus. It will be interesting to hear how all this economic uncertainty is being viewed though.
 
#20,021
#20,021
05_never_again said:
Interesting how the defense names aren't continuing to ramp higher. They all gapped higher Monday AM as you'd expect, but have basically been straight down since.
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Defense stocks are a really puzzling sector.

As Thunder points out, it is almost like the more they sell, the less money they make. Manufacturing missiles for example must be a thin margin.

Research and development of the new missile is where money can be made.

Almost like they need to turn the manufacturing over to someone who is good at assembly line work....perhaps a non-USA company??
 
#20,022
#20,022
Jax_Vol said:
Defense stocks are a really puzzling sector.

As Thunder points out, it is almost like the more they sell, the less money they make. Manufacturing missiles for example must be a thin margin.

Research and development of the new missile is where money can be made.

Almost like they need to turn the manufacturing over to someone who is good at assembly line work....perhaps a non-USA company??
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They make money selling stuff to the government...isn't anything they make that is thin margin just in a relative sense?

It is also interesting to me that the energy stocks, while performing better as a group than the defense names, aren't ramping either despite oil continuing to ramp. XOM is actually down this week, if you can believe that. CVX gapped up, gave back all the gains, but was up again today. XLE is up 1% this week despite oil being up almost 20%.

Either way, the market seems to be suggesting this is a short war or we're whistling past the graveyard.
 
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#20,023
#20,023
Jax_Vol said:
Defense stocks are a really puzzling sector.

As Thunder points out, it is almost like the more they sell, the less money they make. Manufacturing missiles for example must be a thin margin.

Research and development of the new missile is where money can be made.

Almost like they need to turn the manufacturing over to someone who is good at assembly line work....perhaps a non-USA company??
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I think it's the lack of clear goals and the mercurial nature of Trump. He might call this whole thing an amazing success tomorrow and stop or he might continue on for a year.

Without some real idea of a "militarily satisfactory endpoint" and with Trump being unpredictable, I'm not sure defense investment makes sense.
 
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#20,024
#20,024
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
I think it's the lack of clear goals and the mercurial nature of Trump. He might call this whole thing an amazing success tomorrow and stop or he might continue on for a year.

Without some real idea of a "militarily satisfactory endpoint" and with Trump being unpredictable, I'm not sure defense investment makes sense.
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The market certainly doesn't go "all the way" with whatever he happens to say at any given moment, that is for sure. For example I've thought since last April that if the markets believed the tariffs he proposed on Liberation Day were going to stick, I think we would have seen a 30-40% drawdown instead of the 21% one that occurred. I think the markets "knew" (priced in the probability of) he would back off of those stated tariff levels, and that's exactly what happened.

Even still though, for a name like RTX to only be up 0.6% this week after we started a war with Iran is surprising. It gapped up Monday morning, but since then has been trading like almost nothing happened.
 
#20,025
#20,025
05_never_again said:
The market certainly doesn't go "all the way" with whatever he happens to say at any given moment, that is for sure. For example I've thought since last April that if the markets believed the tariffs he proposed on Liberation Day were going to stick, I think we would have seen a 30-40% drawdown instead of the 21% one that occurred. I think the markets "knew" (priced in the probability of) he would back off of those stated tariff levels, and that's exactly what happened.

Even still though, for a name like RTX to only be up 0.6% this week after we started a war with Iran is surprising. It gapped up Monday morning, but since then has been trading like almost nothing happened.
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I think like the tariff situation, cool heads in the investment world realize this might easily end in the next few days because short of boots on the ground we're not getting "our guy" to run Iran.

Trump either knows this or will come to this conclusion sooner rather than later and it will be like nothing happened except a regular slapback of Iran which needed to happen.
 
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