2026 Official Seed Watch List Thread

#201
#201
TheMookieMonster said:
Kansas blowing out Houston certainly makes getting a 3-seed a little bit harder.
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I don’t think that game mattered for us. The committee seems to feel like SEC is the weaker conference. The SEC as whole did pretty poorly with non conference teams. Our top team (FL) is on that 3 line. Our ceiling is dictated by FL. And they beat us pretty bad. In order for us to get a 3 FL would have to slide up to a 2 seed.
 
#202
#202
Dougie_D said:
I don’t think that game mattered for us. The committee seems to feel like SEC is the weaker conference. The SEC as whole did pretty poorly with non conference teams. Our top team (FL) is on that 3 line. Our ceiling is dictated by FL. And they beat us pretty bad. In order for us to get a 3 FL would have to slide up to a 2 seed.
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The perception that the committee has the SEC as a weaker conference is going up against the bracket predictors giving the SEC the most bids in their projections. Even before SEC play started Barttorvik has the SEC as the strongest conference, too. There aren't as many marquee wins this year for the conference, but there are apparently enough quality wins. Now only LSU, Mississippi State, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Oklahoma are clearly out of contention for the tournament.
 
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#203
#203
kckempf said:
The perception that the committee has the SEC as a weaker conference is going up against the bracket predictors giving the SEC the most bids in their projections. Even before SEC play started Barttorvik has the SEC as the strongest conference, too. There aren't as many marquee wins this year for the conference, but there are apparently enough quality wins. Now only LSU, Mississippi State, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Oklahoma are clearly out of contention for the tournament.
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As of right now, the bracket matrix has one SEC team (Florida at the 3) with the NEXT SEC team as the last 4.
The top 16 has 5 B10 and 5 B12. That's 10 spots ( 2 conferences) vs 6 spots (4 conferences).
So to me, it feels like the stronger conferences are B10 and B12.
 
#204
#204
Hadn't seen games for tonight posted, so I apologize if they were. Would be nice for Cincy to do us another solid like that did over the weekend.

NC State @ Virginia (-6.5)
Cincinnati @ Texas Tech (-6.5)
Saint Louis @ Dayton (+3.5)
UCF @ BYU (-11.5)
 
#205
#205
Dougie_D said:
As of right now, the bracket matrix has one SEC team (Florida at the 3) with the NEXT SEC team as the last 4.
The top 16 has 5 B10 and 5 B12. That's 10 spots ( 2 conferences) vs 6 spots (4 conferences).
So to me, it feels like the stronger conferences are B10 and B12.
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The SEC is deeper. Not many elite teams, but a bunch of quality teams. That’s why the conference is at the top. SEC has 13 in the KP top 58. Big 12 has 11 in the top 59 with 5 of those from 46-59. Big Ten has 12.
 
#206
#206
wtmvol said:
Hadn't seen games for tonight posted, so I apologize if they were. Would be nice for Cincy to do us another solid like that did over the weekend.

NC State @ Virginia (-6.5)
Cincinnati @ Texas Tech (-6.5)
Saint Louis @ Dayton (+3.5)
UCF @ BYU (-11.5)
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I feel pretty good about 1 of the 2 winning between NC State and Cincy. If I had to pick one, it would be Cincy. Lower rated than NC State going up against a team that is more apt to drop further (TTU missing Toppin will be used against them in some way if they start to lose). Either one would be great and I know UVA is lower on the 4-seed line but I’m not sure how readily they would drop them below teams with 3+ more losses than they have.
 
#207
#207
VolGee4 said:
The SEC is deeper. Not many elite teams, but a bunch of quality teams. That’s why the conference is at the top. SEC has 13 in the KP top 58. Big 12 has 11 in the top 59 with 5 of those from 46-59. Big Ten has 12.
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Yeah, but the discussion is whether or not TN can get a 3 seed. Like you said, not enough elite teams to make the commitee put TN on that 3 line. Even if FL beats AR, I still think FL is a 3 seed.
 
#208
#208
Dougie_D said:
Yeah, but the discussion is whether or not TN can get a 3 seed. Like you said, not enough elite teams to make the commitee put TN on that 3 line. Even if FL beats AR, I still think FL is a 3 seed.
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If Florida wins out, they will be a 2-seed. They still have 3 more Q1 win opportunities and they’re sky rocketing up the metrics. Not many teams playing better in the country right now than Florida.
 
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#209
#209
TheMookieMonster said:
If Florida wins out, they will be a 2-seed. They still have 3 more Q1 win opportunities and they’re sky rocketing up the metrics. Not many teams playing better in the country right now than Florida.
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I can tell you, I'd much rather play Purdue or Illinois than Florida right now. Honestly, I might rather play UCONN, Iowa State, and Houston than Florida.

They've got a couple tricky games left, but if they finish out 4-0, I agree that they'll be a 2.
 
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#210
#210
Dougie_D said:
Yeah, but the discussion is whether or not TN can get a 3 seed. Like you said, not enough elite teams to make the commitee put TN on that 3 line. Even if FL beats AR, I still think FL is a 3 seed.
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I think what the NCAA showed us Saturday, barring a collapse or someone (like us) off the radar running the table, will be the top 12. The #4 seeds could see a couple of new teams March 15th. This has been the trend since the Committee started doing the early reveal in 2017.

If we run the table and win the SECT, I think a #3 seed is our ceiling.
 
#211
#211
wtmvol said:
I can tell you, I'd much rather play Purdue or Illinois than Florida right now. Honestly, I might rather play UCONN, Iowa State, and Houston than Florida.

They've got a couple tricky games left, but if they finish out 4-0, I agree that they'll be a 2.
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I know Houston’s recent stretch of games has been brutal, but if they don’t right the ship soon, they’re in danger of dropping to a 3. I agree that Florida could steal a #2 seed.
 
#212
#212
TheMookieMonster said:
If Florida wins out, they will be a 2-seed. They still have 3 more Q1 win opportunities and they’re sky rocketing up the metrics. Not many teams playing better in the country right now than Florida.
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It might end up being a toss up. Florida is behind Houston, Iowa State, Purdue, Illiinois according to Lunardi. Split evenly between B10 and B12.
Florida would have to win out and would need Houston, Purdue, or Illinois to lose a game. Iowa State seems a lock for 2.
 
#213
#213
VolCalls said:
I think what the NCAA showed us Saturday, barring a collapse or someone (like us) off the radar running the table, will be the top 12. The #4 seeds could see a couple of new teams March 15th. This has been the trend since the Committee started doing the early reveal in 2017.

If we run the table and win the SECT, I think a #3 seed is our ceiling.
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Lots of things would have to happen in front of us. WE are only ranked top 22. If we get up to top 15 then it's possible but there's too many teams in front of us. Kansas and North Carolina winning didn't do us any favors.
 
#214
#214
Dougie_D said:
Lots of things would have to happen in front of us. WE are only ranked top 22. If we get up to top 15 then it's possible but there's too many teams in front of us. Kansas and North Carolina winning didn't do us any favors.
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I hear what you’re saying, but the AP Poll has nothing to do with the Selection Committee, nor is it a tool they use. Case in point was #4 Louisville (in the AP poll) in 2014 being given a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament. There are many other instances of teams being highly ranked in the polls that get much lower seeds in the Tournament.

The NCAA NET Rankings are a primary instrument used by the Selectuon Committee when evaluating and bracketing/seeding teams. We are 18th there going into tonight, which puts us roughly as a #5 seed as of today, and trending upward.
 
#215
#215
According to Matt Norlander who was allowed to sit with the selection committee with other members of the media says WAB has become a major metric with this years committee. WAB is created with the NET rankings so that makes it doubly important. Tennessee sits at 17 in WAB stat which exactly where they are seeded in almost every mock bracket I've seen
 
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#216
#216
ColinS said:
According to Matt Norlander who was allowed to sit with the selection committee with other members of the media says WAB has become a major metric with this years committee. WAB is created with the NET rankings so that makes it doubly important. Tennessee sits at 17 in WAB stat which exactly where they are seeded in almost every mock bracket I've seen
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Yeah, the current projected seeding falls right where the NET and WAB has us ranked. But those metrics will continue to rise and could very well knock on the door of the Top 12 if we win out.
 
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#217
#217
VolCalls said:
I hear what you’re saying, but the AP Poll has nothing to do with the Selection Committee, nor is it a tool they use. Case in point was #4 Louisville (in the AP poll) in 2014 being given a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament. There are many other instances of teams being highly ranked in the polls that get much lower seeds in the Tournament.

The NCAA NET Rankings are a primary instrument used by the Selectuon Committee when evaluating and bracketing/seeding teams. We are 18th there going into tonight, which puts us roughly as a #5 seed as of today, and trending upward.
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If we gonna compare history we can only go far back 2 years ago. Conferences have expanded
 
#221
#221
ColinS said:
Well, you got to get to the four line first and we just lost ground on that tonight
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I’m just talking about the ceiling of the seeding. If you win out, we can still get to the 4 line pretty easily with two wins over Alabama and Vandy. I just think a 3-seed is off the table now unless we run the table and win the SEC tournament.
 
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#222
#222
TheMookieMonster said:
I’m just talking about the ceiling of the seeding. If you win out, we can still get to the 4 line pretty easily with two wins over Alabama and Vandy. I just think a 3-seed is off the table now unless we run the table and win the SEC tournament.
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Seedings are done before SEC championship game. Now if we win out in reg season and then advance to the finals of the SEC tournament, we could possibly get to a 3, but I think 4-5 is most likely. Not really any difference in a 4-5
 
#225
#225
TheMookieMonster said:
I’m just talking about the ceiling of the seeding. If you win out, we can still get to the 4 line pretty easily with two wins over Alabama and Vandy. I just think a 3-seed is off the table now unless we run the table and win the SEC tournament.
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I dont think there’s any set of circumstances that gets us to a 3, and I think it was a longshot even with a win last night. We lost the best game to lose if we had to lose one, but we will lose more if we don’t right the ship. A 4 or 5 with the right matchups is the scenario to hope for.
 
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