2026 Official Seed Watch List Thread

[VolCalls]

He’s literally listing off one analytic after another, and your response is, “you wear orange colored glasses.”

I guess I could say it out loud, but there’s really no need.

He said “Every team sheet metric has us above Arkansas.” That’s not true - Quad 1 wins are a metric and they have more than us. Quad 2 losses are a metric and we have one while they don’t. Head-to-head is a metric and they beat us.

He made a false statement.

The Committee Chair said yesterday Arkansas is above us on the S-curve as of yesterday at 12:30pm EST.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

Lunardi thinks we’ve moved to the top 5 seed just behind Alabama. 3-1 down the stretch should definitely lock us to a 4 if one of those wins is Alabama.

 

[Vol49er]

Do we want Louisville or UNC to win tonight? Feels like Louisville to me but they’re on the road so it’d count for more so I don’t know. Want Houston to beat Kansas fs

 

[Berry4Heisman14]

Feeling a lot better about this team. I could see sweet sixteen

 

[wtmvol]

Do we want Louisville or UNC to win tonight? Feels like Louisville to me but they’re on the road so it’d count for more so I don’t know. Want Houston to beat Kansas fs

I would think we want UNC to win. Louisville is ahead of us in the NET, and like you said they're the road team so it would have more impact for them to win.

Yes, definitely want Houston to beat Kansas.

 

[Vol49er]

I would think we want UNC to win. Louisville is ahead of us in the NET, and like you said they're the road team so it would have more impact for them to win.

Yes, definitely want Houston to beat Kansas.

You might be right. The fact that we beat Louisville is what is making me waver

 

[TheMookieMonster]

You might be right. The fact that we beat Louisville is what is making me waver

Don’t think the committee cares much about head to head. Well, at least not historically. They aren’t exactly consistent. If they cared about H2H we would be above Alabama right now instead of 2-3 slots behind them. Or, more frustratingly, we would have gotten the 2-seed over Kentucky in 2022 if H2H mattered.

 

[Vol49er]

Don’t think the committee cares much about head to head. Well, at least not historically. They aren’t exactly consistent. If they cared about H2H we would be above Alabama right now instead of 2-3 slots behind them. Or, more frustratingly, we would have gotten the 2-seed over Kentucky in 2022 if H2H mattered.

More so thinking it just benefits our resume overall for Louisville to win games than I am thinking of Louisville being higher than UNC because we have some sort of informal tiebreaker over the Cards

 

[Dougie_D]

Don’t think the committee cares much about head to head. Well, at least not historically. They aren’t exactly consistent. If they cared about H2H we would be above Alabama right now instead of 2-3 slots behind them. Or, more frustratingly, we would have gotten the 2-seed over Kentucky in 2022 if H2H mattered.

I agree with the head to head statement outside of teams that are not in the same conferences. Majority of those games were neutral this entire year. Like why was DUKE vs MI in Washington? etc..

Where I think the committee will look into head to head is where it's the same conference and if the teams have similar resumes.

TN vs Arkansas actually have similar resumes but Arkansas beat us. If Ark beats FL then there's a wider gap between the 2 teams. TN wouldn't be able to pass them up on the line.
Now if FL beats Arkansas, I think the committee will put TN in front.. but just BARELY... and that's where it becomes foggy.
That would push Ark, TN, Vandy, Bama on basically the same lines. But everyone knows you can't have 4/4 on from same conference so 1 or 2 teams have to give.

That's where TN discussion comes in play

The committee will look at TN as kinda of the middle man between these teams. TN is the only team that could potentially "sweep" Bama and Vandy. If we beat both teams and Arkansas loses, we could potentially be a 4. We would get a LOCK at 5 with ARK losing to Florida and then Vandy and Bama get pushed to 5/6 lines. If we lose any of those games we might just be stuck at 5 with nowhere to go.

Here's my prediction:

4-0 - potentially the last 4 seed
3-1 - lock for 5
2-2 - 5/6 line
1-3 - Lock for 6
0-4 - doomsday.

 

[Dougie_D]

Don’t think the committee cares much about head to head. Well, at least not historically. They aren’t exactly consistent. If they cared about H2H we would be above Alabama right now instead of 2-3 slots behind them. Or, more frustratingly, we would have gotten the 2-seed over Kentucky in 2022 if H2H mattered.

Alabama beat ARK and KY. that H2H favors bama over TN. They are 2-0 and we are 0-3 actually. People are trying to shrug off those 2 KY losses, but it's what's holding us back.

 

[VolCalls]

I agree with the head to head statement outside of teams that are not in the same conferences. Majority of those games were neutral this entire year. Like why was DUKE vs MI in Washington? etc..

Where I think the committee will look into head to head is where it's the same conference and if the teams have similar resumes.

TN vs Arkansas actually have similar resumes but Arkansas beat us. If Ark beats FL then there's a wider gap between the 2 teams. TN wouldn't be able to pass them up on the line.
Now if FL beats Arkansas, I think the committee will put TN in front.. but just BARELY... and that's where it becomes foggy.
That would push Ark, TN, Vandy, Bama on basically the same lines. But everyone knows you can't have 4/4 on from same conference so 1 or 2 teams have to give.

That's where TN discussion comes in play

The committee will look at TN as kinda of the middle man between these teams. TN is the only team that could potentially "sweep" Bama and Vandy. If we beat both teams and Arkansas loses, we could potentially be a 4. We would get a LOCK at 5 with ARK losing to Florida and then Vandy and Bama get pushed to 5/6 lines. If we lose any of those games we might just be stuck at 5 with nowhere to go.

Here's my prediction:

4-0 - potentially the last 4 seed
3-1 - lock for 5
2-2 - 5/6 line
1-3 - Lock for 6
0-4 - doomsday.

Solid analysis - I can agree with this. Although unlikely, it is possible to have four SEC teams on the #4 line if that’s how it plays out. That would be something.

 

[VolCalls]

Alabama beat ARK and KY. that H2H favors bama over TN. They are 2-0 and we are 0-3 actually. People are trying to shrug off those 2 KY losses, but it's what's holding us back.

Yes, but you also have to look at the entire body of work, like the Committee does, including non-conference, where Bama beat St. John’s and Illinois. We beat Houston and Louisville. Arkansas beat Texas Tech and Louisville. Lots of hairs to split with these three teams. Let’s keep winning!

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

Yes, but you also have to look at the entire body of work, like the Committee does, including non-conference, where Bama beat St. John’s and Illinois. We beat Houston and Louisville. Arkansas beat Texas Tech and Louisville. Lots of hairs to split with these three teams. Let’s keep winning!

Happy you two found each other.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

Where I think the committee will look into head to head is where it's the same conference and if the teams have similar resumes.

TN vs Arkansas actually have similar resumes but Arkansas beat us. If Ark beats FL then there's a wider gap between the 2 teams. TN wouldn't be able to pass them up on the line.
Now if FL beats Arkansas, I think the committee will put TN in front.. but just BARELY... and that's where it becomes foggy.
That would push Ark, TN, Vandy, Bama on basically the same lines. But everyone knows you can't have 4/4 on from same conference so 1 or 2 teams have to give.

That's where TN discussion comes in play

This actually is only true if you look strictly at the Q1 record. Otherwise, Tennessee has a much better resume in this moment than Arkansas. We are higher than them in every metric on the Team Sheet the committee uses, and when you take a deeper look in the quadrants, Tennessee has 5 Q1A wins to Arky’s 2. That’s a big difference. We have much better wins than Arkansas.

 

[BallerVolFan]

With our current metrics and resume along with our remaining schedule, we can climb the seed list over some other teams if we just win. We won’t have to worry about other teams winning or losing to get to the 4-line if we just win. Now to get to a 3-seed, we’ll have to have some results go our way with some other teams.

 

[BallerVolFan]

Someone correct me if I’m wrong but if we were to be a 4-seed and Vandy/Bama/Ark are all 5 seeds then we would be placed in the pod with the other non-SEC 5-seed by default due to bracketing principles. I don’t believe a team in the top 4 seed lines can be placed in a pod to where they play another conference opponent in the 2nd round. Is that correct?

 

[Dougie_D]

Someone correct me if I’m wrong but if we were to be a 4-seed and Vandy/Bama/Ark are all 5 seeds then we would be placed in the pod with the other non-SEC 5-seed by default due to bracketing principles. I don’t believe a team in the top 4 seed lines can be placed in a pod to where they play another conference opponent in the 2nd round. Is that correct?

Theres some rule like that but I think it’s 3 games. If we have to play Vandy, KY , bama in SEC tourney that’s 3.

I could be wrong about 3....but you brought up a good point. Maybe that's why they those 3 teams all on the same line?

 

[The Dog]

Theres some rule like that but I think it’s 3 games. If we have to play Vandy, KY , bama in SEC tourney that’s 3.

I could be wrong about 3....but you brought up a good point. Maybe that's why they those 3 teams all on the same line?

We played Kentucky in the Sweet 16, which was the 3rd game. Sounds right to me

 

[VolCalls]

Someone correct me if I’m wrong but if we were to be a 4-seed and Vandy/Bama/Ark are all 5 seeds then we would be placed in the pod with the other non-SEC 5-seed by default due to bracketing principles. I don’t believe a team in the top 4 seed lines can be placed in a pod to where they play another conference opponent in the 2nd round. Is that correct?

With conference expansion, there are bound to be years where conference opponents play each other in the 2nd round. Last year, for example, we could’ve had both a Florida-Oklahoma and Vandy-Alabama 2nd round game but the Sooners and Dores both lost in the first round.

 

[The Dog]

With conference expansion, there are bound to be years where conference opponents play each other in the 2nd round. Last year, for example, we could’ve had a Florida-Oklahoma 2nd round game but UConn beat the Sooners in the 8/9 game.

Correct, but you have to a monster year with 10+ teams getting in, like the SEC did, last year

 

[VolCalls]

Correct, but you have to a monster year with 10+ teams getting in, like the SEC did, last year

Correct. I’m simply saying it’s more possible than ever with 15-18 team leagues.

 

[BallerVolFan]

With conference expansion, there are bound to be years where conference opponents play each other in the 2nd round. Last year, for example, we could’ve had both a Florida-Oklahoma and Vandy-Alabama 2nd round game but the Sooners and Dores both lost in the first round.

It does state that some of these principles are relaxed when 9+ teams from the same conference make the field. For example, the principle of putting no more than 2 teams from the same conference in the same region. It’s impossible to avoid that if more than 8 teams from same conference make the tourney so some of these get used when they can be applied.

 

[VolGee4]

With conference expansion, there are bound to be years where conference opponents play each other in the 2nd round. Last year, for example, we could’ve had both a Florida-Oklahoma and Vandy-Alabama 2nd round game but the Sooners and Dores both lost in the first round.

Yes, but the policy is that teams can only play in the second round if they played once before the tournament. Teams that played twice can’t meet before the SS, and teams that played three times before the EE.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

Kansas blowing out Houston certainly makes getting a 3-seed a little bit harder.

 

[BallerVolFan]

Kansas blowing out Houston certainly makes getting a 3-seed a little bit harder.

Until they get blew out by Arizona Saturday (wishful thinking). But yeah the only other teams to pass up on that 3-seed lines would be Nebraska and Gonzaga. Doubt there’s a way we pass Florida up the way they’re playing. Would need Zags to lose to St. Mary’s and probably in their tourney as well. And then would need Nebraska to drop probably 2 more (USC and UCLA). I don’t think we get to the 3-line. Unless somehow Purdue crashes and burns and drops 2 seed lines. Hopefully land a higher 4-seed.