2026 Official Seed Watch List Thread

#151
#151
VolCalls said:
Actually Arkansas or even St. John’s are probably next in line. The Hogs’ metrics are a shade above ours and they blasted us head-to-head.

Don’t discount Vandy’s body of work. Despite beating them yesterday, they still have 8 Q1 wins compared to our 5. If it comes down to us or them on Selection Sunday head-to-head could come into play.
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Every team sheet metric has us above Arkansas fwiw, you were a big proponent of NET the other day, we’re higher there too
 

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#152
#152
bleedingTNorange said:
Every team sheet metric has us above Arkansas fwiw, you were a big proponent of NET the other day, we’re higher there too
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The official
bleedingTNorange said:
Every team sheet metric has us above Arkansas fwiw, you were a big proponent of NET the other day, we’re higher there too
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Again, they have more Q1 wins and blasted us head-to-head.

I know you wear orange colored glasses and while I also love the Vols, I try to look at these things without bias through the eyes of the Committee.
 
#153
#153
bleedingTNorange said:
Updated seed percentages per TeamRankings, just as I said, a win yesterday and our chances of a 2 seed become higher than that of a 7 or 8 seed…


4 seed: 23.4%
3 seed: 21.6%
5 seed: 20.7%
6 seed: 14.2%
2 seed: 10.6%
7 seed: 6.1%
8 seed: 1.7%


So a better than 55% chance of a 2/3/4 seed as things currently stand right now.
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I’d really like to get up to that 3 line just to avoid the 1 seeds for an additional round. Michigan, Duke and Zona seem to be in a class of their own. Hopefully, we end up in the 4th 1 seed bracket, but we will have to beat good teams at some point no matter what. I have a really good feeling about this year. I had it before the season started, lost it for a bit and now it’s back. This team is growing and learning quickly.
 
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#154
#154
VolCalls said:
The official

Again, they have more Q1 wins and blasted us head-to-head.

I know you wear orange colored glasses and while I also love the Vols, I try to look at these things without bias through the eyes of the Committee.
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Well team sheets breaks down what the committee uses, and we’re ahead of Arkansas on everything…guess by your stance we’d be ahead of Bama then? And if Houston drops 1-2 more we’ll jump Houston too, right, since we beat then H2H?
 
#155
#155
hUTch2002 said:
I’d really like to get up to that 3 line just to avoid the 1 seeds for an additional round. Michigan, Duke and Zona seem to be in a class of their own. Hopefully, we end up in the 4th 1 seed bracket, but we will have to beat good teams at some point no matter what. I have a really good feeling about this year. I had it before the season started, lost it for a bit and now it’s back. This team is growing and learning quickly.
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Yea, as always you want the best seed possible, the 1s are very good.
 
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#156
#156
bleedingTNorange said:
Well team sheets breaks down what the committee uses, and we’re ahead of Arkansas on everything…guess by your stance we’d be ahead of Bama then? And if Houston drops 1-2 more we’ll jump Houston too, right, since we beat then H2H?
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Not true. We aren’t ahead of Arkansas on Quad 1 wins. We also have a Quad 2 loss while all of theirs are Quad 1.

Bama, maybe.

No, we aren’t catching Houston or any of yesterday’s top eight seeds. I’ll lay money on that if you like.
 
#158
#158
#165
#165
walkenvol said:
How specifically did Vandy “give the game away”? To me, it’s was a rock fight conference game that went back and forth until we made more shots than them in the last 2 minutes.
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It seemed like they had several chances to put us away and didn't (and, yes, we deserve credit fornot letting them do that).
 
#166
#166
VolCalls said:
Actually Arkansas or even St. John’s are probably next in line. The Hogs’ metrics are a shade above ours and they blasted us head-to-head.

Don’t discount Vandy’s body of work. Despite beating them yesterday, they still have 8 Q1 wins compared to our 5. If it comes down to us or them on Selection Sunday head-to-head could come into play.
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I probably put more stock in KP more than most as I keep it on my phone full time during basketball season. I know everything has to be included, but we are better than both in KP and especially, St. John’s. Both are behind us in the NET, too. I can understand Arkansas ahead of us, but St. John’s went 0-4 against Bama, Auburn, UK, and ISU. 3 SEC teams of which 2 we beat. Beat no one out of conference. Right now, they should not ge ahead of us.

We will see where Vandy ends up with Q1 wins. They have several on the edge of being Q2. UK and SMU are the last two for a home Q1 wins. One other is close as a neutral win. They just didn’t play a high level non conference schedule. We played 4 non conference games in the KP top 20 and beat 2.
 
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#167
#167
VolGee4 said:
After yesterday, we should take Vandy’s spot at the 4. Tougher schedule, similar power ratings, and beat them on the road. It’s how they got Iowa State at the 1 instead of Houston even though Houston’s schedule is tougher.

But there are still games to be played.
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I don’t think we’re to the 4-line quite yet. Michigan State, TTU, Virginia, Arkansas, and Bama are probably still ahead of us. It will play out tho, we still get Bama and Arkansas has Florida. It’s very likely that Virginia, TTU, and Mich St all take at least 1 more loss before end of season. Liking where we’re at!
 
#168
#168
VolCalls said:
The official

Again, they have more Q1 wins and blasted us head-to-head.

I know you wear orange colored glasses and while I also love the Vols, I try to look at these things without bias through the eyes of the Committee.
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The committee doesn’t always look at it through neutral eyes either. They also have to avoid conference matchups. I’m fine with Arkansas, but if St. John’s is ahead of us, it’s the Rick Pitino effect.
 
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#170
#170
As of right now this is our current matchup and potential Quad 1 wins compare to Arkansas, Bama, and Vandy.

Tennessee : 3 Q1 games left. We have the biggest upside but the biggest slide if we LOSE to SC.

Mizz Away 60 - Q1
Bama Home 21 - Q1
SC. Away 105 - Q2
Vandy Home 15 - Q1

Arkansas: 2 Q1 games left. If they win out and beat FL, I can't see the committee putting us over them.

TXAM Home 42 - Q2
FL Away 7 Q1
Texas Home 39 - Q2
Mizzou Away. 60 - Q1

Bama: 2 Q1 games left. If they win out and beat us, I still think we will be ahead but possibly on the same seed line.

Miss St. Home 96 - Q3
TN Away. 15 - Q1
GA. Away. 33 - Q1
Auburn Home 32 - Q2

Vandy: 2 Q1 games left. Same deal, if they win out and beat us, we ending up splitting. Definitely on the same seed line.
GA. Home. 33 - Q2
KY. Away. 29 - Q1
Ole Miss. Away. 91 - Q2
TN. Away 15 - Q1
 
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#171
#171
Dougie_D said:
As of right now this is our current matchup and potential Quad 1 wins compare to Arkansas, Bama, and Vandy.

Tennessee : 3 Q1 games left. We have the biggest upside but the biggest slide if we LOSE to SC.

Mizz Away 60 - Q1
Bama Home 21 - Q1
SC. Away 105 - Q2
Vandy Home 15 - Q1

Arkansas: 2 Q1 games left. If they win out and beat FL, I can't see the committee putting us over them.

TXAM Home 42 - Q2
FL Away 7 Q1
Texas Home 39 - Q2
Mizzou Away. 60 - Q1

Bama: 2 Q1 games left. If they win out and beat us, I still think we will be ahead but possibly on the same seed line.

Miss St. Home 96 - Q3
TN Away. 15 - Q1
GA. Away. 33 - Q1
Auburn Home 32 - Q2

Vandy: 2 Q1 games left. Same deal, if they win out and beat us, we ending up splitting. Definitely on the same seed line.
GA. Home. 33 - Q2
KY. Away. 29 - Q1
Ole Miss. Away. 91 - Q2
TN. Away 15 - Q1
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Regardless of what happens, if we just win out then we are a 4-seed at the worst. I think we are big opponents against Virginia, Michigan State, and Texas Tech. Those teams losing increases our ceiling. Especially with TTU being without Toppin, they’ll be more likely to slide with a loss.
 
#173
#173
VolCalls said:
The official

Again, they have more Q1 wins and blasted us head-to-head.

I know you wear orange colored glasses and while I also love the Vols, I try to look at these things without bias through the eyes of the Committee.
Click to expand...
Arkansas beat us by 11. We missed something like 11-12 FTs in that game, with several coming on the front end. Not sure if that is "blasted". Florida for sure blasted us
 
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#174
#174
I don’t think it really matters all that much and where we are seeded will be based on how we and other teams do from here on out but we now have a Q2 loss in Syracuse. They are currently 76th in the NET, one spot below it jumping back to a Q1 loss. I don’t think it matters that much in the grand scheme of things however, it would be nice to have all our losses being Q1.
 
#175
#175
VolCalls said:
The official

Again, they have more Q1 wins and blasted us head-to-head.

I know you wear orange colored glasses and while I also love the Vols, I try to look at these things without bias through the eyes of the Committee.
Click to expand...
He’s literally listing off one analytic after another, and your response is, “you wear orange colored glasses.”

I guess I could say it out loud, but there’s really no need.
 
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