2026 Official Seed Watch List Thread

#52
#52
I've got a feeling Texas Tech is gonna drop a bit without Toppin. They won't bottom out, but that guy made their entire team go and him being out with an ACL injury is a huge, huge loss.
 
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#53
#53
bleedingTNorange said:
Today’s slate:

7pm: Arkansas vs. Alabama
7pm: Clemson vs. Wake Forest
9pm: BYU vs. Arizona
9pm: Kansas vs. Oklahoma State
9pm: Virginia vs. Georgia Tech
9pm: St. John’s vs. Marquette
9pm: Vanderbilt vs. Missouri
10:30pm: Boise State vs. Utah State
11pm: Gonzaga vs. San Francisco
Click to expand...
So far…

Alabama wins
Wake Forest wins
Arizona wins
Oklahoma State loses
Georgia Tech loses
Marquette loses
Missouri wins
 
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#54
#54
Even if we win out and some teams lose, I don't think we will move that much. The best we could be is the 5 SEED. We have more bad losses than good wins.
We are currently 19-7 at a 6 SEED. Here's the records of the teams we lost to and their current seeds. I also ranked them by current seeds.

Illinois: 21-5 ( 2 SEED)
Kansas : 20-6 ( 3 SEED)
Florida: 20-6 ( 3 SEED)
Arkansas: 19-7 ( 5 SEED)
Kentucky 2X: 17-9 ( 6 SEED)
Syracuse: 15-12 (N/A)

As you can see Syracuse and Kentucky really hurt us the most. We win those games? TN would be sitting 22-4 for a lock at the 3 SEED.
We are 1-3 vs the 2/3 seed teams. 2-1 vs the 4/5 seed teams. Our sweet spot would've been the 3 SEED. The best we could be is a 5 SEED IMO.
 
#55
#55
As usual you’re very wrong and bring information to the board presented as fact that is nothing more than your very incorrect opinion
 
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#56
#56
Dougie_D said:
Even if we win out and some teams lose, I don't think we will move that much. The best we could be is the 5 SEED. We have more bad losses than good wins.
We are currently 19-7 at a 6 SEED. Here's the records of the teams we lost to and their current seeds. I also ranked them by current seeds.

Illinois: 21-5 ( 2 SEED)
Kansas : 20-6 ( 3 SEED)
Florida: 20-6 ( 3 SEED)
Arkansas: 19-7 ( 5 SEED)
Kentucky 2X: 17-9 ( 6 SEED)
Syracuse: 15-12 (N/A)

As you can see Syracuse and Kentucky really hurt us the most. We win those games? TN would be sitting 22-4 for a lock at the 3 SEED.
We are 1-3 vs the 2/3 seed teams. 2-1 vs the 4/5 seed teams. Our sweet spot would've been the 3 SEED. The best we could be is a 5 SEED IMO.
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If we win out, I’ll bet any amount of money we won’t be a 5 seed.
 
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#58
#58
Dougie_D said:
How am I wrong? I'm using the current bracketology on ESPN. Those are the seeds and records.
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Saying the best we can be is a 5 seed, that’s a foolish take based on zero facts. Other teams are going to lose, just look at the last 2 nights, in fact come tomorrow Tennessee likely moves to the 4 seed lines in some brackets with the movement that took place the last 2 days. We also have 2 games against Vanderbilt upcoming, a team who’s a projected 4 seed, we have a game against Alabama who’s a projected 5 seed, yet according to you beating all of them would still mean we wouldn’t pass them….illogical.
 
#59
#59
We don’t have any losses currently outside Q1, a bunch of teams ahead of us on the seed list have at least 1 Q2 loss, if we continue to stack wins our resume looks better and better compared to those teams ahead of us. To put this simply, we were #20 on the seed list tonight entering the evening, that last #5 seed….

#11 Nebraska lost
#12 Texas Tech lost
#14 Vanderbilt lost
#18 Arkansas lost

So a strong case could be made with our win tonight combined with those loses we’ve either passed or essentially caught those 4 team at a minimum. Once again we also play Alabama, so with a win against them that’s two this year and we’d likely pass them as well. This is without taking into consideration any other losses from teams ahead of us which would be impossible considering some of them still play each other.
 
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#60
#60
bleedingTNorange said:
Saying the best we can be is a 5 seed, that’s a foolish take based on zero facts. Other teams are going to lose, just look at the last 2 nights, in fact come tomorrow Tennessee likely moves to the 4 seed lines in some brackets with the movement that took place the last 2 days. We also have 2 games against Vanderbilt upcoming, a team who’s a projected 4 seed, we have a game against Alabama who’s a projected 5 seed, yet according to you beating all of them would still mean we wouldn’t pass them….illogical.
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I'm basing this more about the teams we have lost to rather than the teams we could potentially beat. Kentucky will probably lose 3 more games to push themselves down more. If we beat Vandy, but they end up going 3-2 down the stretch... that's still 2 losses to make their record 24- 7. Vandys losses would be FL, ARK, MIZ, TEXAS, OK and TN twice. All those losses are better than ours. Even if we win out. You can't deny that losing to KY twice and Syracuse are "good losses". They aren't even close. I honestly think the committee will bring up the KY losses.
 
#61
#61
I also will say that it seems (of right now) the SEC has 5 teams that are doing musical chairs around the 4-5-6 spots.
4 seed - Vandy , Bama
5 seed- Arkansas
6 seed - Tennessee, Kentucky

After tonights games those SEEDS could look like this:
4 seed - Bama
5 seed - Vandy, Arkansas, Tennessee
6 seed - Kentucky (they still be us twice)
 
#63
#63
bleedingTNorange said:
We don’t have any losses currently outside Q1, a bunch of teams ahead of us on the seed list have at least 1 Q2 loss, if we continue to stack wins our resume looks better and better compared to those teams ahead of us. To put this simply, we were #20 on the seed list tonight entering the evening, that last #5 seed….

#11 Nebraska lost
#12 Texas Tech lost
#14 Vanderbilt lost
#18 Arkansas lost

So a strong case could be made with our win tonight combined with those loses we’ve either passed or essentially caught those 4 team at a minimum. Once again we also play Alabama, so with a win against them that’s two this year and we’d likely pass them as well. This is without taking into consideration any other losses from teams ahead of us which would be impossible considering some of them still play each other.
Click to expand...
Didn’t realize Syracuse was Q1. That’s good.
 
#65
#65
Dougie_D said:
I'm basing this more about the teams we have lost to rather than the teams we could potentially beat. Kentucky will probably lose 3 more games to push themselves down more. If we beat Vandy, but they end up going 3-2 down the stretch... that's still 2 losses to make their record 24- 7. Vandys losses would be FL, ARK, MIZ, TEXAS, OK and TN twice. All those losses are better than ours. Even if we win out. You can't deny that losing to KY twice and Syracuse are "good losses". They aren't even close. I honestly think the committee will bring up the KY losses.
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Syracuse is a Q1 loss, so are the Kentucky games, you can’t sit here and say we have bad losses and then ignore the fact that by the NCAAT Committee’s own metric we have no bad losses while many teams around us have at least 1 bad loss. Also, how many teams ahead of us have a Top 3 win on a neutral court and a Top 20 road win on their resume, the top end of our good wins are REALLY good.

Let’s play your hypothetical….we win out, which means beating Vandy twice, they win their other games. Post both teams resumes and tell me with a straight face Vandy would still be ahead of us.
 
#69
#69
Per teamrankings updated numbers…
-we have a better than 60% chance at a 5 seed or better

-our most likely seed as of today is a 5 seed at 21.8%

-we’ve closed in on almost being more likely to get a 4 seed (18.7%) than fall to a 6 seed (20.5%)

-we have as good a chance of being a 3 seed as we do a 7 seed at about 13%

-we have as good a chance of being a 2 seed as a 8 seed at about 5%
 
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#71
#71
bleedingTNorange said:
Syracuse is a Q1 loss, so are the Kentucky games, you can’t sit here and say we have bad losses and then ignore the fact that by the NCAAT Committee’s own metric we have no bad losses while many teams around us have at least 1 bad loss. Also, how many teams ahead of us have a Top 3 win on a neutral court and a Top 20 road win on their resume, the top end of our good wins are REALLY good.

Let’s play your hypothetical….we win out, which means beating Vandy twice, they win their other games. Post both teams resumes and tell me with a straight face Vandy would still be ahead of us.
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NCAA Net Rankings have us at 21 with a 4-7 record against Quad 1. A number of the teams above us have Quad 2 losses (including #1 Michigan) but we're the highest ranked team that is more than 2 games underwater against Quad 1 opponents. Louisville is the only team above us who has a losing road record (like us) as well. So it looks like we're pretty fairly in the 5-6 range by the criteria chosen by the NCAA.
 
#72
#72
kckempf said:
NCAA Net Rankings have us at 21 with a 4-7 record against Quad 1. A number of the teams above us have Quad 2 losses (including #1 Michigan) but we're the highest ranked team that is more than 2 games underwater against Quad 1 opponents. Louisville is the only team above us who has a losing road record (like us) as well. So it looks like we're pretty fairly in the 5-6 range by the criteria chosen by the NCAA.
Click to expand...
Beat Vandy on road Saturday , we will go on the 4 line
 
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#73
#73
kckempf said:
NCAA Net Rankings have us at 21 with a 4-7 record against Quad 1. A number of the teams above us have Quad 2 losses (including #1 Michigan) but we're the highest ranked team that is more than 2 games underwater against Quad 1 opponents. Louisville is the only team above us who has a losing road record (like us) as well. So it looks like we're pretty fairly in the 5-6 range by the criteria chosen by the NCAA.
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And we've got 4 Quad 1 regular season games remaining. So it's all still in front of the team as to how they position themselves for the tournament. Win the next three and Net will look decidedly different.
 
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#74
#74
vol9799 said:
And we've got 4 Quad 1 regular season games remaining. So it's all still in front of the team as to how they position themselves for the tournament. Win the next three and Net will look decidedly different.
Click to expand...
I have seen mentioned on here that Syracuse could easily drop to Quad 2 as well (they're Quad 1 because the game was on the road), which ironically would improve our Quad 1 record.
 
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