Aguilar's experience vs his passing yards totals

[UTFranklinVol]

Only problem I have is if there is no qb competition in practice. Like just giving him the starting role regardless of how the other two do. It appears by espn and other talk shows that Joey is going to be the starter.

I think those people are just talking heads and guessing. nobody can say but Heupel who the starter will be and Heupel isn't even going to get to see this kid practice until August so who the hell knows anything about who will start.

 

[UTFranklinVol]

Our asshat only threw 5 ints because our HC was smart enough to take the ball out of his hands. If UCLA cant run the ball they're screwed. JA ain't throwing 40 times a game here. We're a run first team. As far as the sack comparison, the asshat was a baby so a lot of his sacks come from holding the ball too long. It's probably the biggest reason that the "Vet QB"(JA) took nearly half as many sacks. I think we should take the wait and see approach. Quick example would be Bo Nix. I didn't think he was a very good QB at Auburn. He went to a different system and looked like a completely different QB.

yes JA may not have been sacked because he didn't hold on to the ball as long, but getting rid of the ball hastily resulted in an astronomical number of interceptions. last time I checked Interceptions are more devastating than sacks.

if Heupel manages this by limiting the offensive package and taking the ball out of JAs hands by running more then he completely nullifies the only advantage JA has which is to throw the ball 50 times a game and get 300 yards and try to out throw your Interceptions.

the more I analyze this the more I believe JA is a good experienced backup to Merk.

 

[Blackburn]

I saw someone of reddit call him Swaguilar and now I think he might be the best QB we've ever recruited.

 

[Bigorangefaninga]

yes JA may not have been sacked because he didn't hold on to the ball as long, but getting rid of the ball hastily resulted in an astronomical number of interceptions. last time I checked Interceptions are more devastating than sacks.

if Heupel manages this by limiting the offensive package and taking the ball out of JAs hands by running more then he completely nullifies the only advantage JA has which is to throw the ball 50 times a game and get 300 yards and try to out throw your Interceptions.

the more I analyze this the more I believe JA is a good experienced backup to Merk.

This OL was a finalist for one of the best in the country. Yes those awards can be a joke, but it wasn’t as bad as we the fans think it was. Nico took a lot of sacks because he has a ten cent brain that can’t read a defense and process quick enough. Time can help some of that but not much. He will always play slow. IF JA can get this offense to be able to not huddle every single down and play slow it’s going to be a step in the right direction and the actual JH offense. IF not, this will be the same offense that we had to run with Milton and Nico. Also Appy had like 1700 yards total in rushing so JA didn’t have that to fall back on, heck Sampson himself had almost 1500 and we had almost 3,000 yards rushing combined. So teams didn’t have to respect Appy run game and alll pressure was on JA, here the running game can make a QB look pretty good because defenses always have to respect it. I’m cautious about JA coming in here and doing well, but he does have experience and our offense even with an average at best QB (Milton and Nico) still is hard to handle usually and with a pretty dang good defense(unlike Appy) he also has less stress pushing the envelope here at UT.

 

[TheDirector]

everyone keeps saying Aguilar had a bad OL and WRs, but what were people saying about Tennessee last year? The same thing!

speaking of OL, Aguilar was sacked 15 times and Nico was sacked nearly DOUBLE that many times..

so to say that Aguilar is just going to get to play with all these "better" players around him is kind of a weak argument becase the SEC defenses are also much much better which never bodes well for a "gun slinger" QB especially if he's going to face the same situation as Nico can get sacked 28 times.

I look at it a little different. I thought Nico took a lot of sacks because he couldn't process the defense quick enough and also I just looked it up on ESPN and Hendon Hooker got sacked 23 times in 2022 and that offense was amazing. Sacks don't really worry me as much as running the offense faster. Nico and Milton threw few interceptions to their credit but they also took fewer chances which resulted in some really low passing yards in SEC games. The Arkansas game sticks out to me. The most frustrating part was going to the line and then everyone looking at the sideline to get into the right play before snapping the ball. This defeats the whole purpose of Heupels offense IMO and gives the defense too much time to adjust.

My optimism with Aguilar or even the other two QBs is maybe they can run the fast pace offense that Heupel is known for. When Gas Pipe came in last year the offense immediately looked different. Although he didn't have the arm talent that Nico has, he played fast and got rid of it quickly. Maybe Aguilar can only make 80% of the Throws that Nico can but if he does it fast then he could put up better numbers than Nico. The bar is actually not that high when you look at Nico's numbers vs the SEC last year.

 

[Bigorangefaninga]

I look at it a little different. I thought Nico took a lot of sacks because he couldn't process the defense quick enough and also I just looked it up on ESPN and Hendon Hooker got sacked 23 times in 2022 and that offense was amazing. Sacks don't really worry me as much as running the offense faster. Nico and Milton threw few interceptions to their credit but they also took fewer chances which resulted in some really low passing yards in SEC games. The Arkansas game sticks out to me. The most frustrating part was going to the line and then everyone looking at the sideline to get into the right play before snapping the ball. This defeats the whole purpose of Heupels offense IMO and gives the defense too much time to adjust.

My optimism with Aguilar or even the other two QBs is maybe they can run the fast pace offense that Heupel is known for. When Gas Pipe came in last year the offense immediately looked different. Although he didn't have the arm talent that Nico has, he played fast and got rid of it quickly. Maybe Aguilar can only make 80% of the Throws that Nico can but if he does it fast then he could put up better numbers than Nico. The bar is actually not that high when you look at Nico's numbers vs the SEC last year.

Exactly, the offense we have been running is not Heups offense and it’s not because defenses have figured it out. It’s our QB’s didn’t have thought process quick enough to make the decisions needed in fast pace. If any of the 3 QB’s can do that, we can have an offense that is better than last years even if results in W/L column don’t show it. If none of the 3 have that, hopefully Faizon next year comes in and can run it.

 

[LegionnaireOfTheMiserable]

CJH knows what he’s doing when it comes to QB’s, my man. He has every reason in the world to get this right. I’d trust his judgement.

He is 1/3 at Tennessee so far.

But I don’t think Aguilar was brought in to be the starter necessarily. I think it will be an open competition, and Aguilar will have every opportunity, but I don’t think it’s gonna be handed to him. Given the timing of everything, I think he is a fine take.

 

[Sudden Impact]

people have talked a lot about Aguilar's passing numbers last year but man he was clubbing some baby seals. here is App States schedule last year (by the way they went 5-6)

East TN State
Clemson
East Carolina
South Alabama
Marshall
Louisiana
Georgia St
Old Dominion
Coastal
James Madison
Georgia Southern

So you may want to zoom in on the one game he actually played against a quality opponent (25th ranked Clemson)

Aguilar was 18 of 41 passing 43% with 1 TD

unfortunately there are no other reliable data points from 2024 as the remainder of their schedule was abismal. however you can go back to 2023 where he threw for even more yards. let's look at that schedule..

North Carolina
East Carolina
Wyoming
Louisiana Monroe
Coastal
Old Dominion
Southern Miss
Marshall
Georgia State
James Madison
Georgia Southern
Troy
Miami (OH)

again kind of a carbon copy of 2024 with only one power 5 opponent where he completed 51% of his passes against North Carolina, not bad but they still lost and North Carolina is not really a good power 5 opponent, but I guess my biggest fear is he has not much real experience against power 5 teams, let alone GOOD power 5 teams.

I really worry about him being able to produce against really good competition, not that I think he can't, but there's no proof he can. all those passing yards but not against quality teams. Nico had amazing numbers against crappy non conference teams and then the SEC schedule started and we could barely score.

granted Aguilar should have higher quality players around him at Tennessee but I wish he had a bit more experience against big boy football teams so I felt better about his passing production.

Of course there will be moments on the field both good and bad. It all comes down to Coaching, the supporting cast, his leadership skills, his ability to fit into the system and make plays.

Afterall, football is a team sport, not an individual one.

Granted he will be on a more talented team and in his last year as long as he grasps on to concepts, listens to the coaches he should be fine. No doubt he is cramming for a test but he is not wet behind the ears. Should be interesting, we have three solid QBs now so no need to look backward just FORWARD.

 

[LegionnaireOfTheMiserable]

Go check Hookers stats from VT. Not good.

Not saying this guy can become Hooker, but lets wait and see.

Hooker’s career passer rating at Virginia Tech would be second all time at Tennessee, behind only Hooker’s passer rating at Tennessee. He wasn’t prolific passing the ball there, but he was efficient.

 

[Bigorangefaninga]

Hooker’s career passer rating at Virginia Tech would be second all time at Tennessee, behind only Hooker’s passer rating at Tennessee. He wasn’t prolific passing the ball there, but he was efficient.

Hooker threw 9 TD’s and 5 INT’s one season there before coming here. Actually took a step back from a pretty good redshirt freshman year where he threw 1555 yards 13 TD’s and 2 INT’s. The next year though he threw 1339 yards 9 TD’s and 5 INT before losing the starting job. So yeah he had regressed. Came here and first year 2945 with 31 TD and 3 INT and the next 3135 27 TD and 2 INT before getting hurt. So he took a very LARGE step forward from his Va Tech days.

 

[landscapingvol]

people have talked a lot about Aguilar's passing numbers last year but man he was clubbing some baby seals. here is App States schedule last year (by the way they went 5-6)

East TN State
Clemson
East Carolina
South Alabama
Marshall
Louisiana
Georgia St
Old Dominion
Coastal
James Madison
Georgia Southern

So you may want to zoom in on the one game he actually played against a quality opponent (25th ranked Clemson)

Aguilar was 18 of 41 passing 43% with 1 TD

unfortunately there are no other reliable data points from 2024 as the remainder of their schedule was abismal. however you can go back to 2023 where he threw for even more yards. let's look at that schedule..

North Carolina
East Carolina
Wyoming
Louisiana Monroe
Coastal
Old Dominion
Southern Miss
Marshall
Georgia State
James Madison
Georgia Southern
Troy
Miami (OH)

again kind of a carbon copy of 2024 with only one power 5 opponent where he completed 51% of his passes against North Carolina, not bad but they still lost and North Carolina is not really a good power 5 opponent, but I guess my biggest fear is he has not much real experience against power 5 teams, let alone GOOD power 5 teams.

I really worry about him being able to produce against really good competition, not that I think he can't, but there's no proof he can. all those passing yards but not against quality teams. Nico had amazing numbers against crappy non conference teams and then the SEC schedule started and we could barely score.

granted Aguilar should have higher quality players around him at Tennessee but I wish he had a bit more experience against big boy football teams so I felt better about his passing production.

That would be a great point if App State had any defense or an offensive line. What kind of numbers do you think Nico would put up with that kind of talent surrounding him? Most of Nico's good numbers came against questionable opponents so I am not sure what kind of point you are trying to make here

 

[LegionnaireOfTheMiserable]

Hooker threw 9 TD’s and 5 INT’s one season there before coming here. Actually took a step back from a pretty good redshirt freshman year where he threw 1555 yards 13 TD’s and 2 INT’s. The next year though he threw 1339 yards 9 TD’s and 5 INT before losing the starting job. So yeah he had regressed. Came here and first year 2945 with 31 TD and 3 INT and the next 3135 27 TD and 2 INT before getting hurt. So he took a very LARGE step forward from his Va Tech days.

I never said he didn’t take a large step forward. He was much better at Tennessee than at Virginia Tech. I’m just disputing that he “wasn’t good” at Va Tech. Va Tech rarely threw the ball, but when they did, he did pretty well, as evidenced by his passer rating. And he ran for 1000 yards there and 15 TDs in less than 2 seasons’ worth of snaps.

 

[landscapingvol]

everyone keeps saying Aguilar had a bad OL and WRs, but what were people saying about Tennessee last year? The same thing!

speaking of OL, Aguilar was sacked 15 times and Nico was sacked nearly DOUBLE that many times..

so to say that Aguilar is just going to get to play with all these "better" players around him is kind of a weak argument becase the SEC defenses are also much much better which never bodes well for a "gun slinger" QB especially if he's going to face the same situation as Nico can get sacked 28 times.

Nico held the ball to long and had terrible pocket awareness, again you are comparing irrelevant statistics

 

[UT_Tix79]

You’re not paying this guy 1.5 mil to be on the bench, and if you are, our NIL game is turrible

 

[UTFranklinVol]

That would be a great point if App State had any defense or an offensive line. What kind of numbers do you think Nico would put up with that kind of talent surrounding him? Most of Nico's good numbers came against questionable opponents so I am not sure what kind of point you are trying to make here

the kind of point I'm trying to make is that simply being on a "better" team doesn't mean jack because the defenses that this guy will face will be on a whole other level. and before you say that he will have better talent on offense, Nico got sacked 28 times last year because of our OL and our receivers sucked. plus it's a known fact now that Aguilar is prone to making dumb decisions and throwing the ball when he shouldn't and it caused 24 interceptions in just 2 seasons at App St.

interceptions are generally not a product of poor receivers or a poor OL. they are a direct indicator of poor judgement by the QB.

so now you have a guy who makes poor snap decisions having bad receivers and an OL that got Nico sacked 28 times in one season playing against the most elite defenses in college football.

this is a recipe for 3 interceptions per game. on paper and because this guy has really barely ever played a team with a good defense, we really don't know how much worse his interceptions numbers can get

 

[RDU VOL#14]

the kind of point I'm trying to make is that simply being on a "better" team doesn't mean jack because the defenses that this guy will face will be on a whole other level. and before you say that he will have better talent on offense, Nico got sacked 28 times last year because of our OL and our receivers sucked. plus it's a known fact now that Aguilar is prone to making dumb decisions and throwing the ball when he shouldn't and it caused 24 interceptions in just 2 seasons at App St.

interceptions are generally not a product of poor receivers or a poor OL. they are a direct indicator of poor judgement by the QB.

so now you have a guy who makes poor snap decisions having bad receivers and an OL that got Nico sacked 28 times in one season playing against the most elite defenses in college football.

this is a recipe for 3 interceptions per game. on paper and because this guy has really barely ever played a team with a good defense, we really don't know how much worse his interceptions numbers can get

Yes the O Line gave up sacks, but Nico was also guilty of holding the ball way too long . And also we replace the entire WR group and 4 of 5 starters on the O Line . There’s a lot of unknowns going on w/ our offense, I don’t think anything can be presented as fact at this point . Certainly not this sky is falling speculation.

 

[GetYouSomeofThat]

Yeah but we run a system offense. Look how good CJH made Over Throw Joe look running it.

Are you talking about the NFL QB Milton?

 

[Bigorangefaninga]

I never said he didn’t take a large step forward. He was much better at Tennessee than at Virginia Tech. I’m just disputing that he “wasn’t good” at Va Tech. Va Tech rarely threw the ball, but when they did, he did pretty well, as evidenced by his passer rating. And he ran for 1000 yards there and 15 TDs in less than 2 seasons’ worth of snaps.

If you want to be real, he ran for 1,050 yards and 10 TD’s in 2 seasons at UT all the while throwing for double the yardage AND his RB’s did well also. As a matter of fact you can combine both seasons at Va Tech 312 passes for 2,894 yards. 1st year at UT 302 for 2,945. He was more efficient as a passer compared to Va Tech but not as efficient as a runner, since 1 year at VT he went for 120 rushes for 620 and UT 167 for 620. His passer rating went from 165.8, 153.5 to 182 and 175.5. So he became just a better QB under a better system.

 

[Bigorangefaninga]

the kind of point I'm trying to make is that simply being on a "better" team doesn't mean jack because the defenses that this guy will face will be on a whole other level. and before you say that he will have better talent on offense, Nico got sacked 28 times last year because of our OL and our receivers sucked. plus it's a known fact now that Aguilar is prone to making dumb decisions and throwing the ball when he shouldn't and it caused 24 interceptions in just 2 seasons at App St.

interceptions are generally not a product of poor receivers or a poor OL. they are a direct indicator of poor judgement by the QB.

so now you have a guy who makes poor snap decisions having bad receivers and an OL that got Nico sacked 28 times in one season playing against the most elite defenses in college football.

this is a recipe for 3 interceptions per game. on paper and because this guy has really barely ever played a team with a good defense, we really don't know how much worse his interceptions numbers can get

He had 5 INT just last year that were because of his WR’s. Also since you don’t seem to understand this! His defense was straight up trash, over 33 pts per game trash. Last year Nico could hold the ball and take a sack because his defense bailed him out often(like not scoring in first half in how many games?). JA didn’t have that same insurance, if they didn’t score they were getting beat because his defense couldn’t stop anyone! So yeah he prob took a lot of risks, but with as bad as his defense was they prob had to be done. So it’s not as simple as he was terrible because he threw 24 INT’s in 2 seasons, you have to look at the whole body of work for the entire team. I mean Peyton set the record in NFL for rookie INT’s, is it because he was a terrible QB?

 

[landscapingvol]

the kind of point I'm trying to make is that simply being on a "better" team doesn't mean jack because the defenses that this guy will face will be on a whole other level. and before you say that he will have better talent on offense, Nico got sacked 28 times last year because of our OL and our receivers sucked. plus it's a known fact now that Aguilar is prone to making dumb decisions and throwing the ball when he shouldn't and it caused 24 interceptions in just 2 seasons at App St.

interceptions are generally not a product of poor receivers or a poor OL. they are a direct indicator of poor judgement by the QB.

so now you have a guy who makes poor snap decisions having bad receivers and an OL that got Nico sacked 28 times in one season playing against the most elite defenses in college football.

this is a recipe for 3 interceptions per game. on paper and because this guy has really barely ever played a team with a good defense, we really don't know how much worse his interceptions numbers can get

Nico got sacked because he held the ball too long and couldn't read the field; JA got sacked because he was running for his life. Huge difference between both situations

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

He had 5 INT just last year that were because of his WR’s. Also since you don’t seem to understand this! His defense was straight up trash, over 33 pts per game trash. Last year Nico could hold the ball and take a sack because his defense bailed him out often(like not scoring in first half in how many games?). JA didn’t have that same insurance, if they didn’t score they were getting beat because his defense couldn’t stop anyone! So yeah he prob took a lot of risks, but with as bad as his defense was they prob had to be done. So it’s not as simple as he was terrible because he threw 24 INT’s in 2 seasons, you have to look at the whole body of work for the entire team. I mean Peyton set the record in NFL for rookie INT’s, is it because he was a terrible QB?

Manning went 3-13 or something his rookie year and threw a record 28 INTs. He has said "I learned. These guys are fast. I can't try that throw anymore." It took Manning all season to learn.

My worry with Aguilar is that we'll see that Manning "learning curve" under fire like Peyton did. Aguilar has not faced SEC speed, like Manning had not faced NFL speed.

It's true that Peyton Manning is smart, exceptionally smart, and a tremendous student of the game and ways he could improve. He did VERY well after that rookie year, but that year was a struggle.

We have one year with Aguilar.

I'm not sure the bet that Aguilar has BETTER than Peyton Manning learning qualities is a very good bet. We COULD experience his learning curve and it could be ugly.

I hope not but I've seen the Manning example a lot. He DID improve....... after a bad year. We don't have that next year with Aguilar.

 

[Bigorangefaninga]

Manning went 3-13 or something his rookie year and threw a record 28 INTs. He has said "I learned. These guys are fast. I can't try that throw anymore." It took Manning all season to learn.

My worry with Aguilar is that we'll see that Manning "learning curve" under fire like Peyton did. Aguilar has not faced SEC speed, like Manning had not faced NFL speed.

It's true that Peyton Manning is smart, exceptionally smart, and a tremendous student of the game and ways he could improve. He did VERY well after that rookie year, but that year was a struggle.

We have one year with Aguilar.

I'm not sure the bet that Aguilar has BETTER than Peyton Manning learning qualities is a very good bet. We COULD experience his learning curve and it could be ugly.

I hope not but I've seen the Manning example a lot. He DID improve....... after a bad year. We don't have that next year with Aguilar.

It could also be that Manning didn’t have a very good team and was forcing things, which he has also said. Same thing happened with JA at Appy. That is where the comparison is. Manning threw a ton of INT’s because he thought he had to, to win and He LOATHES losing. Same thing can be prob said about JA at Appy since his offense wasn’t very good and his defense was one of the worst in the nation. Manning had to get used to the NFL which is a bigger jump than group of 5 against P4. Also for the fact that again Peyton has stated he hated to lose and so he forced things he didn’t need to. So as long as JA understands he can rely on his defense and running game, we should be OK!

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

It could also be that Manning didn’t have a very good team and was forcing things, which he has also said. Same thing happened with JA at Appy. That is where the comparison is. Manning threw a ton of INT’s because he thought he had to, to win and He LOATHES losing. Same thing can be prob said about JA at Appy since his offense wasn’t very good and his defense was one of the worst in the nation. Manning had to get used to the NFL which is a bigger jump than group of 5 against P4. Also for the fact that again Peyton has stated he hated to lose and so he forced things he didn’t need to. So as long as JA understands he can rely on his defense and running game, we should be OK!

The next season they were 13 - 3.

There was a learning curve.

 

[EZE]

He will be given the opportunity to win the starting job as he should be. He would not have come otherwise.

And my money is on him to win it.

 

[KTrain]

Continuing to use App st vs a playoff team seems a bit slanted

His team played teams on the same level. Why is this a hard concept all of a sudden?

Some are small minded and have an agenda to be on the gloom and doom train ergo the narrative.