2025 Seed Watch Party Thread

#227
#227
TheMookieMonster said:
Not to mention they still have one less loss than we do and we’ve frequently seen the committee take arbitrary stats like “fewer losses” as a differentiating factor. It’s close, but I still think Alabama winning is better for us.
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That would be ridiculous in this age of unbalanced schedules. They have one less loss because they played home and homes against UGA and USC.
 
#228
#228
bleedingTNorange said:
Curios if you’re still adamant about the Houston deal? 128/128 folks on matrix thought they were ahead of us, seems pretty loud.
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Since the 2/15 seed reveal, here is what has happened:

Us: 4-0 (home win over Vanderbilt, road win at A&M, road win at LSU, home win vs. Alabama)

Them: 6-0 (road wins over Arizona & Arizona State, home win vs. Iowa State, road win at Texas Tech, home wins vs. Cincinnati & Kansas)

There's a human element to the selection committee, even though they primarily rely on metrics. If the committee has bumped them four places, and ahead of us, without either team losing, then so be it. There's nothing I can do about it. We have one more Quad One win than they do, a little better SOS, and they have a Quad Two loss, which we don't. In their favor is a 9-0 road record compared to our 6-4.

To answer your question, yes, I believe we're one place ahead of them on the S-curve, and as long as we win both games this week we'll both get a #1 seed.
 
#229
#229
cncchris33 said:
Fair point. Let's hope history repeats itself. That Michigan State team had two Q2 losses while UNC, the last 1-seed, had zero losses outside Q1. I wonder if that was the deciding factor? Currently, neither Houston, nor Tennessee have a loss outside Q1.
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Updating this as Houston is now the proud owner of a Q2 loss thanks to San Diego State dropping outside of the top 50 in the NET.
 
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#230
#230
I still think it would be fairly unprecedented for a team that went 19-1 in the 2nd toughest conference in all of basketball to be left off the 1-seed line. I just do not see it happening if they beat Baylor on Saturday. At the same time, I think this all works itself out and the debate will become moot. If we lose tonight, we’re out of the conversation. If Alabama loses another game, they are out of the conversation.
 
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#231
#231
I think it's down to us, Florida and Bama for the final number one. I think that win at Kansas last night locked in Houston as well.

1-1 for UF and Bama, with 2-0 for us gets it. I think us going 1-1 ends our chances even if Bama and Florida go 1-1.
 
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#232
#232
VolArmy74 said:
I think it's down to us, Florida and Bama for the final number one. I think that win at Kansas last night locked in Houston as well.

1-1 for UF and Bama, with 2-0 for us gets it. I think us going 1-1 ends our chances even if Bama and Florida go 1-1.
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I agree, we gotta go 2-0 otherwise this is all for nothing
 
#234
#234
What happens in this scenario:

Tennessee 2-0: Wins @ Ole Miss, vs USCjr

Houston 0-1: Loss @ Baylor

Alabama 2-0: Wins vs UF, @ Auburn

Is Tennessee still the odd man out in this situation?
 
#237
#237
Jay Bilas just said if Michigan State runs the table then he wouldn’t doubt Michigan State jumps up into the last #1 seed HAHA

WHAT AN ABSOLUTE IDIOT
 
#238
#238
BallerVolFan said:
What happens in this scenario:

Tennessee 2-0: Wins @ Ole Miss, vs USCjr

Houston 0-1: Loss @ Baylor

Alabama 2-0: Wins vs UF, @ Auburn

Is Tennessee still the odd man out in this situation?
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If we go 2-0 this week we are 100% a #1 seed and I’ll wager $$ on it.
 
#240
#240
I didn’t realize that Florida is ahead of us in NET and KenPom. Tonight’s win might put them ahead of us for the last 1 seed. I really hope not.
 
#243
#243
I don’t think it’s a good thing for us that Florida won. I’m thinking their two elite road wins, fewer losses, and higher resume metrics are going to leapfrog them back in front of us.
 
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#244
#244
TheMookieMonster said:
I don’t think it’s a good thing for us that Florida won. I’m thinking their two elite road wins, fewer losses, and higher resume metrics are going to leapfrog them back in front of us.
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Yeah I agree, hopefully another Q1 win tonight would have us just barely ahead of them. And maybe that Georgia loss can still be fresh in the committees mind
 
#245
#245
TheMookieMonster said:
I don’t think it’s a good thing for us that Florida won. I’m thinking their two elite road wins, fewer losses, and higher resume metrics are going to leapfrog them back in front of us.
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Number of losses do not matter like they do in football. It’s all about who did you play (SOS) and who did you beat (Quad 1 wins).
 
#246
#246
TheMookieMonster said:
I don’t think it’s a good thing for us that Florida won. I’m thinking their two elite road wins, fewer losses, and higher resume metrics are going to leapfrog them back in front of us.
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It would be the most Tennessee thing for us to go 2-0 and draw them in the semifinals of the SEC tournament and beat them and the committee still give them the 1-seed
 
#248
#248
VolCalls said:
Number of losses do not matter like they do in football. It’s all about who did you play (SOS) and who did you beat (Quad 1 wins).
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You seem so certain of everything you say. Two weeks ago you were adamant that Houston could not possibly jump us, but now I see you have at least admitted that was not to be the case. Yes, the two data points you just threw out there are important, but so is the NET, which they are higher in. They are also higher in KenPom.

Lunardi also mentioned live on air this week the Committee is going to really value good road wins, so clearly someone on the Committee told him that, and if that’s the case Florida has the edge there as well. You make all of this seem so black and white when it’s not.
 
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#249
#249
Duke is somewhat standalone, but they are in a weakened conference, top to bottom. While Auburn overall has the most solid resume, it's not without flaws. UF, Tenn, and 'Bama seem very close to one another. And A & M can get hot.

Just not a lot of separation or clear favorites amongst the top third of the SEC.
 
#250
#250
TheMookieMonster said:
You seem so certain of everything you say. Two weeks ago you were adamant that Houston could not possibly jump us, but now I see you have at least admitted that was not to be the case. Yes, the two data points you just threw out there are important, but so is the NET, which they are higher in. They are also higher in KenPom.

Lunardi also mentioned live on air this week the Committee is going to really value good road wins, so clearly someone on the Committee told him that, and if that’s the case Florida has the edge there as well. You make all of this seem so black and white when it’s not.
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There should be more consistency year to year, but we know that each committee can emphasize different criteria. I know they have 2 great road wins, but their resume is not better. That’s objectively looking at it. I would be very disappointed if they got the one if nothing changed from here.
 
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