2025 Seed Watch Party Thread

#201
#201
Flogballs said:
The matrix is pretty split between Vols and Bama for the last 1 seed. If it’s truly that split, doesn’t seem like we control our own destiny when they have possible wins against Florida and Auburn
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That’s what I’m thinking as well, almost gotta think we need to pull for Florida to beat Alabama. But then Florida has the chance to pass us. Definitely a catch-22 but Alabama is the one that is split with us so that’s why I’m leaning towards rooting for Florida
 
#202
#202
Willy14 said:
That’s what I’m thinking as well, almost gotta think we need to pull for Florida to beat Alabama. But then Florida has the chance to pass us. Definitely a catch-22 but Alabama is the one that is split with us so that’s why I’m leaning towards rooting for Florida
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I’m thinking a win vs Florida and a loss to Auburn.

If we win out I think that might do it. Pretty sure that would also give us the 2 seed in the SECT.
 
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#203
#203
If we are currently the last 1-seed, I think we root for Bama. If the committee still currently has Bama ahead of us, I think we gotta root for Florida. I just don’t know how much they’d penalize Bama for losing to Auburn. If a loss to Auburn would drop them then we’re rooting for Bama tomorrow but I just don’t know what they’ll do. Still think if we win out and both Florida and Bama lose 1 a piece then we should be the 1 seed.
 
#204
#204
BallerVolFan said:
If we are currently the last 1-seed, I think we root for Bama. If the committee still currently has Bama ahead of us, I think we gotta root for Florida. I just don’t know how much they’d penalize Bama for losing to Auburn. If a loss to Auburn would drop them then we’re rooting for Bama tomorrow but I just don’t know what they’ll do. Still think if we win out and both Florida and Bama lose 1 a piece then we should be the 1 seed.
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Bama has lost 3 of 5, including head to head vs the team competing with them for a coveted #1 seed. If they split this week that will be 4 losses for them since the committee’s seed reveal. I don’t know how they can overcome that when the #5 team on the committee’s list won the rest of their games.
 
#205
#205
VolCalls said:
Bama has lost 3 of 5, including head to head vs the team competing with them for a coveted #1 seed. If they split this week that will be 4 losses for them since the committee’s seed reveal. I don’t know how they can overcome that when the #5 team on the committee’s list won the rest of their games.
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Where was Bama in the committee’s initial Top 16?

Edit: I looked it up. They were 2nd. We’re rooting for Bama tomorrow. You convinced me.
 
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#206
#206
The more I think about it, the more I think the 2nd place finisher in the SEC will get a #1 seed. Which of the three teams that ends up being remains to be seen, but we know one will definitely be eliminated tomorrow.
 
#207
#207
VolCalls said:
The more I think about it, the more I think the 2nd place finisher in the SEC will get a #1 seed. Which of the three teams that ends up being remains to be seen, but we know one will definitely be eliminated tomorrow.
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With that Auburn loss tonight, give me Bama to win tomorrow. Then Bama has to go into Neville Arena in a rivalry game on Auburn’s senior night after they just lost. Just gotta make sure we do our part tomorrow.
 
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#212
#212
This was the top 16 reveal and each teams record since:

Auburn 5-1
Alabama 2-3
Duke 6-0
Florida 4-1
Tennessee 4-0
Texas A&M 2-4
Purdue 2-3
Houston 6-0
Iowa State 3-3
Kentucky 3-3
Wisconsin 3-2
Arizona 3-3
Texas Tech 3-2
Michigan 3-2
Kansas 2-4
St. John’s 5-0
 
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#214
#214
Obviously best case is Alabama beats Florida tonight and then Auburn beats Alabama on Saturday…but if of both teams it feels like Florida going 2-0 might still be behind us more so than Bama going 2-0, so do you root for Florida tonight? Pretty crazy how much is still on the line with just 2 games left.
 
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#215
#215
bleedingTNorange said:
Obviously best case is Alabama beats Florida tonight and then Auburn beats Alabama on Saturday…but if of both teams it feels like Florida going 2-0 might still be behind us more so than Bama going 2-0, so do you root for Florida tonight? Pretty crazy how much is still on the line with just 2 games left.
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I don’t want a team that’s battling with us to pick up a Top-10 road win. I think we gotta go with Bama tonight and just hope Auburn comes out Saturday and takes care of business
 
#217
#217
Variables change and outcomes change. At this point, I don’t think we have a chance at a one without going 2-0 this week. If we do go 2-0, it gets tough to justify anyone passing us after we close 6-0, with the other two contenders having recently lost to us head to head. That said, we’re a razor thin margin over Bama. I don’t want to compare records if they beat two top ten teams in a week and number one on the road. The emotional weight of them beating number one, their top rival, away on the last day of the season would be hard to overcome. If we want a lock, we need to win out and hope for Bama and Florida to each go 1-1. If we had to choose bad outcomes, we’d probably rather Florida win out. That Georgia loss is a good justification for them not getting the nod. While the tournament is a low level input, people have said it may have to play this year if two resumes are too close to call.
 
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#218
#218
bleedingTNorange said:
If Florida wins tonight they lock up the 2 seed in SECT from what I’m seeing
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I think so. In possible tie scenarios they have the H2H versus Bama. If they tied with TN the H2H tie breaker is a 1-1 wash, so their win over Barn gives them the tie breaker over TN.

In a 3-way tie between FL, TN, and Bama the record versus each other is:
TN 2-1
FL 2-1
Bama 0-2
Bama would be dropped and the FL win over Barn breaks the tie with TN.
 
#219
#219
Stoerner Fumbles said:
Variables change and outcomes change. At this point, I don’t think we have a chance at a one without going 2-0 this week. If we do go 2-0, it gets tough to justify anyone passing us after we close 6-0, with the other two contenders having recently lost to us head to head. That said, we’re a razor thin margin over Bama. I don’t want to compare records if they beat two top ten teams in a week and number one on the road. The emotional weight of them beating number one, their top rival, away on the last day of the season would be hard to overcome. If we want a lock, we need to win out and hope for Bama and Florida to each go 1-1. If we had to choose bad outcomes, we’d probably rather Florida win out. That Georgia loss is a good justification for them not getting the nod. While the tournament is a low level input, people have said it may have to play this year if two resumes are too close to call.
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I agree with this and think I’m pulling for UF tonight. I also have a sneaky feeling bama wins Saturday, so might as well get them off the 1 line tonight and deal with the rest later. Bottom line, over all of it though - we need to just win.
 
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#221
#221
One of the interesting points Lunardi made on the air last night was the immense value the Committee places on beating top teams on the road. Using that metric, here are the top 10 road wins in college basketball this season, in order based on the current NET ranking of the home team who lost:

1. Florida (@ Auburn)
2. Texas Tech (@ Houston)
3. Missouri (@ Florida)
4. Kentucky (@ Tennessee)
5. Tie - Ole Miss and Auburn (both won @ Alabama)
7. Tie - UCF, Iowa State, and Houston (all won @ Texas Tech)
10. Tie - Saint Mary's and Santa Clara (both won @ Gonzaga)

Also of note is BYU has won at both Arizona and Iowa State in the last 11 days, these would be next on the list. They are hot.

These are the top 10 neutral site wins based on the current NET ranking of the losing team:
1. Kansas (vs. Duke)
2. Kentucky (vs. Duke)
3. Auburn (vs. Houston) - game was in Houston but not on Houston's home floor
4. Alabama (vs. Houston)
5. San Diego State (vs. Houston)
6. Oregon (vs. Alabama)
7. Saint Joseph's (vs. Texas Tech) and Texas A&M (vs. Texas Tech)
9. Kentucky (vs. Gonzaga) - game was in Spokane but not on Gonzaga's home floor
10. Three other teams have beaten Gonzaga on a neutral floor.

Feel free to discuss/debate all you like. Again, this is based on wins over top teams (according to their current NET ranking) on the road or at a neutral site, so facts are facts.
 
#222
#222
VolCalls said:
One of the interesting points Lunardi made on the air last night was the immense value the Committee places on beating top teams on the road. Using that metric, here are the top 10 road wins in college basketball this season, in order based on the current NET ranking of the home team who lost:

1. Florida (@ Auburn)
2. Texas Tech (@ Houston)
3. Missouri (@ Florida)
4. Kentucky (@ Tennessee)
5. Tie - Ole Miss and Auburn (both won @ Alabama)
7. Tie - UCF, Iowa State, and Houston (all won @ Texas Tech)
10. Tie - Saint Mary's and Santa Clara (both won @ Gonzaga)

Also of note is BYU has won at both Arizona and Iowa State in the last 11 days, these would be next on the list. They are hot.

These are the top 10 neutral site wins based on the current NET ranking of the losing team:
1. Kansas (vs. Duke)
2. Kentucky (vs. Duke)
3. Auburn (vs. Houston) - game was in Houston but not on Houston's home floor
4. Alabama (vs. Houston)
5. San Diego State (vs. Houston)
6. Oregon (vs. Alabama)
7. Saint Joseph's (vs. Texas Tech) and Texas A&M (vs. Texas Tech)
9. Kentucky (vs. Gonzaga) - game was in Spokane but not on Gonzaga's home floor
10. Three other teams have beaten Gonzaga on a neutral floor.

Feel free to discuss/debate all you like. Again, this is based on wins over top teams (according to their current NET ranking) on the road or at a neutral site, so facts are facts.
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Lunardi is not a good prognosticator, but he’s a reliable mouthpiece. If he shares something like that, he’s been told to, and you can take it to the bank. I don’t know that that narrative is aimed at the selection of the ones. He’s also been talking about how we passed Bama, but that the margin is razor thin between the three other SEC teams. Everything will be clearer by Saturday night.
 
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#223
#223
VolCalls said:
One of the interesting points Lunardi made on the air last night was the immense value the Committee places on beating top teams on the road. Using that metric, here are the top 10 road wins in college basketball this season, in order based on the current NET ranking of the home team who lost:

1. Florida (@ Auburn)
2. Texas Tech (@ Houston)
3. Missouri (@ Florida)
4. Kentucky (@ Tennessee)
5. Tie - Ole Miss and Auburn (both won @ Alabama)
7. Tie - UCF, Iowa State, and Houston (all won @ Texas Tech)
10. Tie - Saint Mary's and Santa Clara (both won @ Gonzaga)

Also of note is BYU has won at both Arizona and Iowa State in the last 11 days, these would be next on the list. They are hot.

These are the top 10 neutral site wins based on the current NET ranking of the losing team:
1. Kansas (vs. Duke)
2. Kentucky (vs. Duke)
3. Auburn (vs. Houston) - game was in Houston but not on Houston's home floor
4. Alabama (vs. Houston)
5. San Diego State (vs. Houston)
6. Oregon (vs. Alabama)
7. Saint Joseph's (vs. Texas Tech) and Texas A&M (vs. Texas Tech)
9. Kentucky (vs. Gonzaga) - game was in Spokane but not on Gonzaga's home floor
10. Three other teams have beaten Gonzaga on a neutral floor.

Feel free to discuss/debate all you like. Again, this is based on wins over top teams (according to their current NET ranking) on the road or at a neutral site, so facts are facts.
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Based on this, if Florida won tonight it would be pretty hard to ignore that they have the two best road wins in the country of @Auburn and @Alabama
 
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#224
#224
Willy14 said:
Based on this, if Florida won tonight it would be pretty hard to ignore that they have the two best road wins in the country of @Auburn and @Alabama
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No question. IMO, the loser of that game tonight will be eliminated from 1-seed consideration.
 
#225
#225
Willy14 said:
Based on this, if Florida won tonight it would be pretty hard to ignore that they have the two best road wins in the country of @Auburn and @Alabama
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Not to mention they still have one less loss than we do and we’ve frequently seen the committee take arbitrary stats like “fewer losses” as a differentiating factor. It’s close, but I still think Alabama winning is better for us.
 
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