Ultimately I think Hesiman voters will see who Hooker beat and how he played against them and that'll matter more than total stats.
Hendo vs top 25
@ Pitt: 64.3% 352 total yards 2 total TDs 0 ints
vs UF: 78.6% 461 total yards 3 total TDs 0 ints
@ LSU: 63.0% 295 total yards 2 total TDs 0 ints
vs Bama: 70.0% 441 total yards 5 total TDs 1 int
CJ Stroud vs top 25
vs ND: 70.6% 224 total yards 2 total TDs 1 int
Hendo will face 2 or 3 more top 25 teams before the regular season is over (depending on how South Carolina plays before our matchup with them, which they should be able to beat Missouri & Vandy).
CJ Stroud will face just 2 top 25 teams (Penn State & Michigan) the only other team that could be top 25 he'll face is Maryland.
So when the voting happens Hendo will have faced 6 or 7 top 25 teams vs CJ facing 3 or 4. If the numbers are close I think it's pretty reasonable to think Hooker wins it.
Current totals
Hendo: 70.6% 2093 passing yards 18 TDs 1 INT 315 rushing yards 3 TDs
Stroud: 70.0% 2023 passing yards 28 TDs 4 INTs -9 rushing yards 0 TDs
there's context that i wonder how much voters will consider as well. such as...overall roster talent around each QB....advantage who? the one with the most talent, or the one that did more with less? then there's the "what was supposed to happen"....meaning, OSD came in as a top 3 team, Stroud as a pre season heisman favorite, not just candidate, vs TN not ranked, and at best HH was a pre season heisman dark horse. you mention the schedule and who did what, against who.
but lastly, and this is the one that i have no idea what voters will do with, but if HH doesn't win it, will have most TN fans ready to revolt...is the context of the wins in terms of where TN's program is, vs. where it's been. it's not just that we beat UF, LSU, and Bama, it's the context of those games....ending significant losing streaks in all three that i just don't think anyone thought we could do. end 1 or maybe 2...but all three? nobody saw that coming.
and as far as heisman moments...i mean....the Florida game, with the throw at the end of the half to Keyton, the huge run in the 3rd qtr, just making people look silly. the LSU game...just freaking consistent. timely runs, big throws, but i don't know there was a "moment" in that game. and Alabama....dude, the guy gets, what, 50 yards in 2 pass plays to set up the game winning FG against in :13? is there a bigger moment than that?
and off the field...slam dunk. kid is an awesome human being on top of being what he is on the field.
honestly, i don't really care what Stroud does. even if we lose to UGA, HH's resume is still loads better. if stroud wins it, it is because he wont it in the off season. there are heisman voters that aren't going to vote for HH for whatever reason. some of them won't have watched all his games. and some just made their mind up because stroud was the favorite going in, and he won't "lose" it during the season. some will use the bama game against him in terms of all the "mistakes" bama made, others will say "yeah, but what if he didn't have that hyatt kid to throw to" ....lol. all a guise to justify who they were going to vote for before the season started anyway.
but like has been the case with most heisman trophy winners since 1997, it's doubtful all of them actually earned it. be the best player on the best team....and this year, that's CJ Stroud....right?
i'm fully anticipating a runner up, at best, again. and we can use this is our nut kick for the season and as our reason for being angry about something....
and i'll just say if the worst thing that's happened this season is having a heisman runner up.............things are OK........