Recruiting Forum Football Talk IV

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#139,326
#139,326
Devo182 said:
To be fair, the probabilities of the spreads make it out to be predicting an ~8-4 season, with 7-5 2nd most likely, 9-3 next in line.

But yeah I'd take 8-4 without much of a complaint myself, especially if the others were competitive.
Click to expand...

I thought those spreads had us favored in 9 games? How do the probabilities on that make us 8-4? Even if we’re just a 2 point favorite doesn’t that make us at least 51% likely to win?

Or did I just miscount the number of times that list had us favored? (very possible)
 
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#139,329
#139,329
Doug Matthews on the zone earlier (I only caught the last segment)
-Heup is making the middle Tennessee area a priority
-We are not done signing mid-state players
-We will gain, and lose more players to the portal
-SEC players who entered the portal after Feb 1 will have to sit a year if they transfer to an SEC school. (new SEC rule?)
Not much but a little nugget on a slow day.
 
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#139,331
#139,331
ugg said:
Doug Matthews on the zone earlier (I only caught the last segment)
-Heup is making the middle Tennessee area a priority
-We are not done signing mid-state players
-We will gain, and lose more players to the portal
-SEC players who entered the portal after Feb 1 will have to sit a year if they transfer to an SEC school. (new SEC rule?)
Not much but a little nugget on a slow day.
Click to expand...
@Weezer
 
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#139,333
#139,333
tnhunter 10 said:
AM shift at Hooters.
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Reminds me of that Mike Epps bit about old strippers (the words without his voice don't do it justice)

But they’ve got some strip clubs in D.C. that don’t even need to exist. What’s the name of that other one? They need to throw a bomb up in there and blow that mother****** clean out. It is hazardous in there. It’s unhealthy. The sanitation ain’t right. They got three shifts of women working in there, all related. Yeah. Daughter, momma and grandmama at this one strip club I go to. The daughter work grave shift. Yeah, eleven ’til seven in the morning. The momma work three ’til eleven. Ain’t playing nothing but Keith Sweat and Baby Bash and **** in there. The grandmama work during the day. Them old strippers work from ten to two. Them mother****** be out there… Old Margaret. Ain’t no music on. Price Is Right be on TV. Is this ***** dancing on top of me, talking about “The Guiding Light, sponsored by Charmin, the quicker picker-upper.”? She giving you a dance with People’s Court on. “These cases are real
Click to expand...
 
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#139,334
#139,334
Dudley Smith said:
I thought those spreads had us favored in 9 games? How do the probabilities on that make us 8-4? Even if we’re just a 2 point favorite doesn’t that make us at least 51% likely to win?

Or did I just miscount the number of times that list had us favored? (very possible)
Click to expand...
I'm talking how it actually plays out in probabilities. Probabilities aren't binary. They have us edging out a number of close games.

Imagine if you had a 12 game season where you were a 51% favorite every game. That isn't predicting 12-0, it's basically 6-6 (6.12-5.88 to be exact).

Running out their spreads it's pretty much ~8-4. That's all I was sayin.

Here's a simulation using their odds fwiw
Screenshot_20220421-173600_Sheets.jpg
 
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#139,337
#139,337
Devo182 said:
I'm talking how it actually plays out in probabilities. Probabilities aren't binary. They have us edging out a number of close games.

Imagine if you had a 12 game season where you were a 51% favorite every game. That isn't predicting 12-0, it's basically 6-6 (6.12-5.88 to be exact).

Running out their spreads it's pretty much ~8-4. That's all I was sayin.
Click to expand...
None of it means much, that’s all I am saying. GBO!
 
#139,338
#139,338
Woodlawn VOL said:
None of it means much, that’s all I am saying. GBO!
Click to expand...
It's definitely too early and I doubt these lines are even live. I saw one video of oddsmakers for another site and they had us a 7 pt favorite over LSU, for instance.

Some teams don't even know who their starting QB is yet. But it's fun conjecture and has at least some rough bit of predictive ability. Much better than preseason polls imo...at least people in Vegas put their money where their mouth is! Quick way to cut through all the BS 🤣
 
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#139,342
#139,342
I'm slightly more interested in FPI's preseason estimation, only because it's been oddly close or optimistic vs our actual finishes for the last decade. Don't think we've beaten their prediction by more than 1.0 game since its inception. They have us at exactly 7.0-5.0, which is about .6 games less than Vegas. They had us winning 6.6 last season. Season after season I feel like it's due time we crush the expectations...it feels like every other freakin team can do it at least once in a while.

This time's different...I'm thinking we may just do it finally.
 
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#139,344
#139,344
Devo182 said:
I'm talking how it actually plays out in probabilities. Probabilities aren't binary. They have us edging out a number of close games.

Imagine if you had a 12 game season where you were a 51% favorite every game. That isn't predicting 12-0, it's basically 6-6 (6.12-5.88 to be exact).

Running out their spreads it's pretty much ~8-4. That's all I was sayin.

Here's a simulation using their odds fwiw
View attachment 449181
Click to expand...

dumb-and-dumber-lloyd.gif
 
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#139,348
#139,348
Devo182 said:
FPI also has us with the #5 toughest schedule ugh. What's new?

Vandy has the 4th toughest.. lol

...#1...Auburn OOF. Goodbye Harsin.


Not in the top 25? Kentucky and UGA...gotta love the equivalent schedules we're all playing as SEC teams 🤔🤔
Click to expand...
Without looking I'm guessing FPI is massively overestimating LSU and Pitt.
 
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